Research and Outlook on  
European Energy Interconnection  
Preface  
Energy is intimately related to all aspects of human sustainable development. At present, the world  
faces a series of major challenges, including resource shortages, climate change, environmental  
pollution, and energy poverty, which stem from human’s heavy reliance on and excessive consumption  
of fossil energy. Dealing with these challenges is an important and urgent task to achieving sustainable  
development for humanity. In essence, the core of sustainable development is clean development of  
which the key is to promote Clean Replacement on the energy production side, and Electricity  
Replacement on the energy consumption side. Clean Replacement is to use clean alternatives in energy  
production, replacing fossil fuels with hydro, solar, and wind energy. Electricity Replacement is to  
promote electricity replacement in energy consumption, replacing coal, oil, natural gas and firewood  
with electricity. The Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) is a modern energy system which is clean  
energy-dominated, electricity-centered, interconnected and shared. It is an important platform for  
large-scale development, transmission and utilization of clean energy resources at a global level,  
promoting the global energy transition characterized by cleaning, decarbonization, electrification and  
networking. The GEI will be able to fully implement Agenda 2030 as well as the Paris Agreement,  
guarantee clean, reliable and affordable modern energy for all, and realize comprehensive and  
coordinated development of the economy, society and ecological environment.  
In order to promote the development of the GEI, the Global Energy Interconnection Development  
and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO) has undertaken systematic researches on Energy  
Interconnection schemes at world, continent, key region and country levels since 2016. The researches  
have included extensive and comprehensive analysis of data and information of the global economy,  
society, energy, power, climate and environment, with reference from relevant strategic development  
plans and policies of various governments, as well as research findings from international organizations,  
research institutions and enterprises, according to which, advanced models, methods and tools have  
been applied to conduct study and outlook on the visions, paths, and key issues related to the  
development of the GEI. A series of research results on the GEI and the Energy Interconnection of all  
continents have been achieved. For the first time, systematic and innovative solutions and top-level  
designs for global energy and power transition and clean and low-carbon development have been  
proposed within these research series. They have filled in the gaps within the global energy and  
power research field and could provide strategic guidelines for the GEI development and Energy  
Interconnection of all continents, key regions and countries, thus make critical contribution to  
accelerating green energy transition, addressing climate change and realizing sustainable human  
development.  
This report is one of the GEI research series. Based on the requirements of sustainable  
development in Europe, it systematically studies the European Energy Interconnection. It is divided into  
7 chapters. In Chapter 1, the development status of the economy, society, resources, environment,  
energy and power in Europe is introduced. In Chapter 2, the challenges for sustainable development and  
energy transition in Europe are analyzed and the development ideas for European Energy  
Interconnection are suggested. In Chapter 3, guided by achieving the 2°C global temperature control  
target, the development trend for energy and power transition in Europe is envisioned, with  
corresponding scenarios proposed. In Chapter 4, the distribution of clean energy resources and layout of  
major power generation bases are studied. In Chapter 5, based on the analysis of the power balance, the  
overall layout and interconnection scheme for European Energy Interconnection are proposed. In  
Chapter 6, the comprehensive benefits brought by building European Energy Interconnection are  
assessed. In Chapter 7, the clean energy and power development path with its scenario in Europe to  
achieve a targeted 1.5°C temperature control is envisioned.  
This report could provide reference for governments, international organizations, energy  
enterprises, financial institutes, universities and relevant individuals in policy making, strategic  
research, technological innovation, project development, international cooperation, etc. However, there  
might be inadequacies as data and time for research and compilation are limited. Comments and  
suggestions are welcome for further improvements.  
Study Region  
This report covers 40 countries, which are classified into seven sub-regions based on the operational  
status of power grids and on geographical and cultural traditions.1  
British Isles: United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland.  
Northern Europe: Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland.  
Western Europe: France, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Austria  
and Switzerland.  
Southern Europe: Italy, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Croatia,  
Montenegro and North Macedonia.  
Eastern Europe: Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus and  
Turkey.  
Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  
RBUM: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1This report does not take any position on the sovereign status of territory, the boundary delimitations of international borders and the names of territories, cities  
or areas. This is the case for the entirety of this report.  
Illustration of Study Region of European Energy Interconnection  
Summary  
Europe is an economically and socially developed region and is at the forefront of the global drive to  
promote clean energy development, address climate change and drive regional integration. The  
European Union (EU), along with European countries, have formulated a series of strategic targets and  
policy measures for energy transition, which are fundamental to secure, clean and efficient energy  
supply, as well as to building a united, stable, open and prosperous Europe. Europe recognizes the  
importance of clean, low-carbon and efficient development to its target of achieving harmonious and  
sustainable development of economy and society, resources and environment, and mankind and nature  
in Europe. The differences in population, economic growth and industrial development, technological  
innovation and constraints of climate and environment should be taken into consideration, as well as  
differences between regions and countries in terms of resources and development stage. Greater effort  
must be expended on the electrification and the development of an Electricity-Carbon Market. Europe  
will continuously lead the global transition in clean energy.  
To achieve sustainable development in Europe, the key is to develop clean energy, increase  
the proportion of electricity in final energy consumption, improve the power integration level and  
move forward with European Energy Interconnection. Europe needs to accelerate clean energy  
development within the region and the import of clean energy to realize safe, clean and efficient energy  
supply. Europe needs to improve electrification, build an electricity-centered energy structure, and  
establish an electricity-carbon trading mechanism to set a good example for global energy transition and  
climate governance to the world. Europe needs to build a platform for cooperation on energy and power  
between Europe and its surrounding regions, realizing large-scale resource allocation. European  
Energy Interconnection is clean, low-carbon, efficient, which promotes multi-energy complementarity  
and regional co-construction and sharing. This will help drive a new stage of the technological and  
industrial revolution and promote socio-economic development throughout Europe.  
The improvement of energy efficiency and technology in Europe have contributed to the  
continuing decrease in energy demand. Energy consumption will be cleaner, and final energy  
consumption will be electricity-centered. Total primary energy demand will drop by 19% to 3.32  
billion tce by 2050, and total final energy consumption will decrease by 26% to 1.94 billion tce. Clean  
energy will replace fossil fuels as the dominant energy in Europe before 2030 and the proportion of  
clean energy in primary energy will increase to 78% by 2050. Electricity will replace oil as the major  
power source in final energy consumption by around 2030. The proportion of electricity in final energy  
consumption will increase to 59% by 2050. Power consumption in Europe will rise to 6700 TWh by  
2035 and 8100 TWh by 2050, with an annual average growth of 1.8% for 2017−2035 and 1.1% for  
2036−2050.  
The power supply trends in Europe are as follows. Power generated from coal and oil will be  
reduced and denuclearization will be accelerated. Centralized and distributed development of  
clean energy will proceed simultaneously along with the integration of intra-continental supply  
and external imports of clean energy. The total installed capacity in Europe will be 2.88 TW by 2035  
and 3.82 TW by 2050. The proportion of clean energy in the installed capacity will increase from 54.5%  
in 2017 to 92.7% by 2050, and the proportion of clean power generated will rise from 52% in 2017 to 91%  
by 2050. Wind energy resources in the North Sea area of Europe are well suited to large-scale centralized  
development, while Southern Europe boasts solar energy resources suitable for centralized development.  
In densely populated urban areas, wind and solar resources are mainly developed in a distributed mode.  
There will be five large wind power bases in Europe by 2050 (in North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian Sea,  
Barents Sea and Greenland), and three hydropower bases (Northern Europe, Russia and Turkey).  
Power flow in Europe will have a pattern of “intra-continental power transmission from  
North to South, and imported power from Asia and Africa”. Northern Europe will develop offshore  
wind power and hydropower and Baltic States will develop offshore wind power. These two regions  
will export electricity to other regions while meeting local electricity demand. British Isles will be able  
to balance internal demand, and then receive clean power from Northern Europe and Greenland before  
transmitting power to Western Europe as a clean energy transfer hub. Western Europe, Southern Europe  
and Eastern Europe will have large power demand and become major load centers, receiving surplus  
intra-continental power from northern regions and imported power from Africa and Asia.  
Inter-continental and inter-regional power exchange in Europe will reach 85 GW by 2035 and 133 GW  
by 2050.  
The European power grid will take the Voltage Source Converter Based High Voltage Direct  
Current (VSC-HVDC) power grid of the continent as its core, while connecting with wind power  
bases in the North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea, hydropower bases in  
Northern Europe, and solar energy bases in North Africa, West Asia and Central Asia. A ±800 kV  
DC power grid will be built to integrate the offshore wind power of the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and  
neighboring areas of Greenland, as well as the hydropower of Northern Europe. A ±800/±660 kV DC  
power grid will be built to integrate the offshore wind power of the Baltic Sea and Barents Sea. A  
±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC looped network covering Western Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern  
Europe will be built to import clean energy and facilitate cross-border exchanges. In terms of  
inter-continental connectivity, a ±800/±660 kV DC grid will receive clean power from North Africa and  
West Asia through the Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula and Balkan Peninsula, contributing to  
exchanges of northern wind power and southern solar power. A ±800 kV DC grid will import electricity  
from Central Asia, connecting Asia with Europe to make use of the different time zones.  
Eleven inter-continental and three inter-regional major interconnection projects will be built  
by 2050. This will support the large-scale and long-distance transmission of clean energy, as well  
as mutual support, achieving a wider range of energy and power exchange. One ±500 kV, two ±660  
kV and eight ±800 kV inter-continental DC projects with transmission capacity of 75 GW will be built.  
For inter-regional interconnection, one ±800 kV DC project with 8 GW, one ±800 kV VSC-HVDC  
looped grid and one ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid will be built.  
European Energy Interconnection will achieve remarkable comprehensive benefits. In terms  
of economic benefits, total investment in European Energy Interconnection will be about 4.9 trillion  
USD by 2050, with an average annual economic growth rate of 1.9%. Clean energy development will  
be effectively promoted and energy supply will be more reliable and cleaner. In terms of social  
benefits, it can effectively promote the development of energy and power infrastructure and upstream  
and downstream industries, create more than 27 million jobs and significantly reduce energy supply  
costs. In terms of environmental benefits, it can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce  
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy systems to about 1.1 billion tonnes per year by 2050 and  
effectively reduce climate-related disasters. Air polluting emissions will be reduced, including cuts of  
6.8 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide (SO2), 15.5 million tonnes of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and 1.5 million  
tonnes of fine particulate matter per year by 2050. The value of land resources will increase to 18  
billion USD per year by 2050. In terms of political benefits, it will enhance mutual political trust,  
speed up the process of regional integration and promote closer cooperation between governments,  
enterprises and international organizations.  
In order to meet the global temperature control target of 1.5°C, Europe needs to  
continuously improve its clean and low-carbon development, raise the levels of clean energy and  
electrification, and increase the scale of power grid interconnectivity. Compared to the 2°C  
temperature control target, the fossil fuel will decrease further. By 2050, the consumption of fossil fuel  
energy in primary energy will be reduced by 53%. The proportion of clean energy production will be  
increased and the installed capacity of clean energy electricity sources will increase by 10% by 2050.  
Electricity Replacement will be accelerated and the final electrification rate will increase by about 16  
percentage points by 2050. Interconnectivity of power grids will be strengthened and inter-continental  
and inter-regional power flow will be increased by 24 GW. Investment will be increased and clean  
energy development and power grid construction investment will increase by 10% by 2050.  
Contents  
Preface  
Study Region  
Summary  
1 Development in Europe / 001  
1.1 Economy and Society / 002  
1.1.1 Macro Economy / 002  
1.1.2 Humanity and Society / 003  
1.1.3 Regional Cooperation / 004  
1.1.4 Development Strategy / 004  
1.2 Resources and Environment / 006  
1.2.1 Natural Resources / 006  
1.2.2 Ecological Environment / 007  
1.3 Energy and Power / 009  
1.3.1 Energy Development / 009  
1.3.2 Electric Power Development / 012  
1.3.3 Market Status / 015  
2 Challenges and Ideas of  
Sustainable Development / 017  
2.1 Development Challenges / 018  
2.2 Development Ideas / 019  
2.2.1 Development Concept of Global Energy Interconnection / 019  
2.2.2 European Energy Interconnection Promoting Sustainable  
Development in Europe / 020  
2.3 Development Priorities / 021  
3 Energy and Power Development  
Trends / 023  
3.1 Energy Demand / 024  
3.1.1 Overall Development / 024  
3.1.2 Energy Demand Outlook / 025  
3.2 Power Demand / 029  
3.2.1 Overall Development / 029  
3.2.2 Power Demand Outlook / 031  
3.3 Power Supply / 033  
3.3.1 Overall Development / 033  
3.3.2 Power Supply Outlook / 036  
3.4 Electricity-Carbon Trading / 038  
3.4.1 Overall Development / 038  
3.4.2 Outlook of Electricity-Carbon Market / 039  
4 Development Layout of Clean  
Energy Resources / 041  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources / 042  
4.1.1 Hydro Energy / 042  
4.1.2 Wind Energy / 045  
4.1.3 Solar Energy / 047  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases / 048  
4.2.1 Hydropower Bases / 048  
Contents  
4.2.2 Wind Power Bases / 049  
4.2.3 Solar Power Exploitation / 053  
5 Power Grid Interconnection / 055  
5.1 Power Flow / 056  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern / 059  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection / 062  
5.3.1 British Isles / 062  
5.3.2 Northern Europe / 064  
5.3.3 Western Europe / 065  
5.3.4 Southern Europe / 066  
5.3.5 Eastern Europe / 068  
5.3.6 Baltic States / 070  
5.3.7 RBUM / 070  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects / 072  
5.4.1 Key Inter-Continental Projects / 072  
5.4.2 Key Inter-Regional Projects / 074  
5.5 Investment Estimation / 077  
5.5.1 Investment Estimation Principles / 077  
5.5.2 Investment Estimation Results / 078  
6 Comprehensive Benefits / 081  
6.1 Economic Benefits / 082  
6.2 Social Benefits / 083  
6.3 Environmental Benefits / 083  
6.4 Political Benefits / 086  
7 Development Outlook of  
Achieving 1.5°C Temperature  
Control Target / 087  
7.1 Situations and Requirements / 088  
7.2 Implementation Paths / 089  
7.2.1 Clean Replacement / 089  
7.2.2 Electricity Replacement / 090  
7.2.3 Carbon Sequestration and Reduction / 090  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes / 091  
7.3.1 Energy Demand / 091  
7.3.2 Power Demand / 093  
7.3.3 Power Supply / 095  
7.3.4 Power Grid Interconnection / 098  
7.3.5 Comparative Analysis / 099  
Epilogue / 100  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and  
Models / 101  
Appendix 2 Basic Data Tables / 106  
References / 111  
List of Figures & Tables  
■
Figures  
Figure 1-1  
Figure 1-2  
Figure 1-3  
Figure 1-4  
Total GDP for Europe (2010−2017) / 002  
Population Forecast for Europe (2017, 2035 and 2050) / 003  
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion in Europe / 008  
Proportions of Deaths and Economic Losses Caused by Climate-related Disasters in Europe from 1980  
to 2017 / 008  
Figure 1-5  
Figure 1-6  
Figure 1-7  
Figure 1-8  
Figure 1-9  
Figure 1-10  
Figure 1-11  
Figure 1-12  
Figure 1-13  
Figure 3-1  
Figure 3-2  
Figure 3-3  
Figure 3-4  
Figure 3-5  
Figure 3-6  
Figure 3-7  
Figure 3-8  
Figure 3-9  
Figure 3-10  
Figure 3-11  
Figure 3-12  
Figure 3-13  
Figure 3-14  
Figure 3-15  
Energy Production in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016) / 010  
Primary Energy Demand in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016) / 010  
Primary Energy Demand Structure in Europe in 2016 / 011  
Final Energy Consumption in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016) / 011  
Final Energy Consumption Structure in Europe in 2016 / 012  
Power Generation Installed Capacity Structure in Europe by Source in 2017 / 013  
Power Generation Structure in Europe by Source in 2017 / 013  
Illustration of Current Grid Interconnections in Europe / 014  
2017 Investment in Renewable Energy and Annual Growth Rate of Main European Countries / 016  
Primary Energy Demand in Europe by Region / 025  
Annual Average Growth Rate of Primary Energy Demand in Europe by Region / 026  
Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP in Europe by Region / 026  
Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in Europe (2016−2050) / 027  
Share of Clean Energy in Primary Energy Demand in Europe / 027  
Final Energy Consumption by Sector in Europe / 028  
Final Energy Consumption by Fuel and Share of Electricity in Europe / 028  
Share of Electricity in Final Energy Sectors in Europe / 029  
Additional Electricity Consumption of Electricity Replacement in Europe’s Heating and Cooling Sector / 030  
Additional Electricity Consumption of Electricity Replacement in Europe’s Transport Sector / 030  
Illustration of Current and 2050 Layout of Europe’s Data Centers / 031  
Electricity Consumption Forecast in Europe / 031  
Electricity Consumption per Capita Forecast in Europe by Region / 032  
Share of Power Demand in Europe by Region / 033  
Global and European Cost Forecasts for Wind and Solar / 034  
Figure 3-16  
Figure 3-17  
Figure 3-18  
Figure 3-19  
Figure 3-20  
Figure 3-21  
Figure 3-22  
Outlook for European Installed Capacity / 036  
Structure of Installed Capacity in Europe / 036  
Share of Installed Capacity in Europe by Region / 037  
Structure of Power Generation in Europe by Region in 2050 / 037  
Targets, Progress and Projections for Carbon Emission Reduction in the EU Power Sector / 038  
Scenarios of the Electricity-Carbon Trading by 2035 / 040  
Target Pathway of the Emission Reduction and the Share of Clean Power Generation of Power Sectors  
in the EU / 040  
Figure 4-1  
Figure 4-2  
Figure 4-3  
Figure 4-4  
Figure 4-5  
Figure 4-6  
Figure 4-7  
Figure 4-8  
Figure 4-9  
Figure 4-10  
Figure 4-11  
Figure 5-1  
Figure 5-2  
Illustration of River Systems in Major Mountains of Europe / 043  
Illustration of Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey / 044  
Illustration of Major River Basins in Russia / 045  
Illustration of Average Annual Onshore Wind Speed in Europe / 046  
Illustration of Annual Average Offshore Wind Speed in Europe / 047  
Illustration of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Europe / 048  
Illustration of Direct Normal Irradiance in Europe / 048  
Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the North Sea / 050  
Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the Baltic Sea / 051  
Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the Norwegian Sea / 051  
Illustration of Wind Power Bases in Greenland / 052  
Illustration of Power Supply Balance for Each Country in Europe / 057  
Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Flow in European Energy Interconnection by  
2035 / 058  
Figure 5-3  
Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Flow in European Energy Interconnection by  
2050 / 059  
Figure 5-4  
Figure 5-5  
Figure 5-6  
Figure 5-7  
Figure 5-8  
Figure 5-9  
Figure 5-10  
Figure 5-11  
Figure 5-12  
Figure 5-13  
Figure 5-14  
Figure 5-15  
Figure 5-16  
Figure 5-17  
Figure 5-18  
Figure 5-19  
Figure 5-20  
Figure 5-21  
Figure 6-1  
Figure 6-2  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection Pattern in Europe / 060  
Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Grid Interconnection by 2035 / 061  
Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Grid Interconnection by 2050 / 062  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of British Isles by 2050 / 063  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Northern Europe by 2050 / 065  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Western Europe by 2050 / 067  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Southern Europe by 2050 / 068  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Eastern Europe by 2050 / 069  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Baltic States by 2050 / 071  
Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of RBUM by 2050 / 072  
Illustration of Africa-Europe Interconnection Projects / 073  
Illustration of Asia-Europe Interconnection Projects / 074  
Illustration of North Sea ±800 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project / 075  
Illustration of the Baltic Sea ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project / 076  
Illustration of Greenland−Iceland−UK ±800 kV DC Project / 076  
Investment Scale and Structure of European Energy Interconnection / 078  
Investment Scale and Structure of Power Sources by Region from 2019 to 2050 / 079  
Investment Scale and Structure of Power Grids by Region by 2050 / 080  
Mitigation Benefits from European Energy Interconnection / 084  
Air Pollutant Mitigation Benefits from the European Energy Interconnection in 2035 / 085  
Figure 6-3  
Figure 7-1  
Figure 7-2  
Figure 7-3  
Figure 7-4  
Figure 7-5  
Figure 7-6  
Air Pollutant Mitigation Benefits from the European Energy Interconnection in 2050 / 085  
Primary Energy Demand in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 092  
Proportion of Clean Energy in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 092  
Final Energy Consumption in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 093  
Proportion of Electricity in Final Sectors in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 093  
Forecast of Electricity Demand in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 094  
Forecast of Annual Electricity Consumption per Capita in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature  
Control Target / 094  
Figure 7-7  
Figure 7-8  
Figure 7-9  
Figure 7-10  
Figure 7-11  
Figure 7-12  
Proportion of Electricity Consumption by Region in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target / 095  
Outlook of Power Generation Installed Capacity in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target / 096  
Structure of Power Generation Installed Capacity in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target / 096  
Share of Installed Generation Capacity by Region in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target / 097  
Structure of Installed Generation Capacity by Region in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target / 097  
Proportion of Installed Generation Capacity by Country in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature  
Control Target / 098  
Figure 7-13  
Figure 7-14  
Illustration of Power Flow in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target / 098  
Analysis and Comparison of Energy and Power in Europe under the 2°C and 1.5°C Scenarios / 099  
■
Tables  
Table 1-1  
Table 1-2  
Table 1-3  
Table 3-1  
Table 4-1  
Table 4-2  
Table 5-1  
Table 5-2  
Development Plans of European Countries / 005  
Fossil Energy Resources in Europe / 006  
Electric Power Development in Europe in 2017 / 012  
Electricity Consumption Forecast in Europe by Region (2017−2050) / 032  
Hydropower Bases in Europe / 049  
Wind Power Bases in Europe / 052  
Forecast of Investment Cost per Capacity of Various Power Sources / 077  
Investment Estimation Parameters for Power Grid by Voltage Level / 078  
1
Development in  
Europe  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
002  
1
Development in Europe  
Europe has a total area of 23.86 million km2 and is bordered by the Arctic Ocean to the north, and faces  
North America across the Atlantic Ocean to the west and Africa across the Mediterranean Sea to the  
south. It is one of the most developed regions in the world with a developed economy, high degree of  
social civilization and a high degree of integration. Europe has already made great strides in clean  
development. It is an active leader in addressing global climate change, a promoter of clean energy  
utilization and a pioneer of carbon trading. It has laid an important foundation for providing safe, clean  
and efficient energy supplies and building a stable, open and prosperous Europe.  
1.1 Economy and Society  
1.1.1 Macro Economy  
Europe has a developed economy. In 2017, Europe’s total GDP was 21.1 trillion USD, accounting for  
about 26.5% of the global total, and the GDP per capita was about 26000 USD. The European Union  
(EU) is a world leader in economic development. In 2017, its total GDP was about 18.8 trillion USD,  
accounting for about 23% of the global total, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%. The GDP per capita  
was about 38000 USD.1 The industrial structure is dominated by the service industry, which accounts  
for 74% of GDP. Industry accounts for 25.6% of GDP2 and agriculture 1.4%. The Commonwealth of  
Independence States (CIS)3 has a relatively low level of economic development. In 2017, its total GDP  
was about 2.04 trillion USD, with an annual growth rate of 2.2%, and the GDP per capita was about  
7381 USD. The total GDP of Europe from 2010 to 2017 is shown in Figure 1-1. The economic and  
social profiles of various countries and regions are detailed in Table 2-1 in Appendix 2.  
Figure 1-1 Total GDP for Europe (2010−2017)4  
Europe has a developed industrial structure and boasts outstanding advantages in high-end  
manufacturing and high-tech industries. Both the First and the Second Industrial Revolution were  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: World Bank, National Accounts Data, 2019.  
2Source: Indexmundi, European Union Economy Profile 2018, 2018.  
3Only the Commonwealth of Independence States countries within the scope of this report were included, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Estonia, Lithuania and  
Latvia.  
4Source: World Bank, 2019.  
1
Development in Europe  
003  
born in Europe. The major countries in Western, Northern and Southern Europe have achieved  
industrialization. Major industrial countries such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom (UK) and  
Italy, have established a sound system of industry sectors and are comprehensively strong. Other  
countries have developed industries based on their own national conditions. Supported by its strong  
capacity in science and technology, the EU contributes approximately one third of global scientific  
output and is the world’s largest knowledge center and global research and innovation center. Europe is  
an export leader in 16 machinery sectors and has several auto, aviation and pharmaceutical sectors. The  
EU has comparative advantages in high-end manufacturing industries such as chemical engineering,  
medicine, aviation, motor vehicles and precision instruments. Electromechanical products occupy six  
places in the top 10 EU exports, accounting for nearly 40% of total EU exports.  
1.1.2 Humanity and Society  
Europe’s population in 2017 was 827 million, accounting for 11.1% of the world’s population. The total  
population of the EU countries was 510 million. According to United Nations (UN) forecasts, Europe’s  
population will be basically stable or even shrink in the future, with figures of 827 million forecast for  
2035 and 808 million for 2050. Europe’s total population forecast for 2017, 2035 and 2050 is shown in  
Figure 1-2.  
Figure 1-2 Population Forecast for Europe (2017, 2035 and 2050)1  
Europe’s socio-economic development is leading the world. First, Europe has a high level of  
urbanization. In 2018, the level of urbanization in Europe was 74%, nearly 20 percentage points higher  
than the global average.2 Second, Europe takes the lead in national competitiveness. According to  
the Global Competitiveness Report 2018 from the IMD in Switzerland, eight European countries are in  
the top 10.3 More than half of the top 50 in the World Bank’s latest ranking of business environment are  
European countries. Third, with a pleasant natural environment, Europe is a highly livable region.  
There were 17 European countries in the top 20 of the Environmental Performance Index Ranking.4  
According to the 2018 Quality of Living Ranking, eight European cities featured in the global top 10.5  
Life expectancy in European cities ranks among the top 10 globally. Average life expectancy for Europe  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: United Nations, 2019.  
2Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization Trends 2018, 2018.  
3Source: The International Institute for Management Development, 2018 IMD WorId Competitiveness Yearbook, 2018.  
4Source: Yale University, Environmental Performance Index 2018, 2018.  
5Source: MERCER, 2018 Quality of Living City Ranking, 2018.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
004  
is estimated to be 77.5, the highest of any continent.1  
1.1.3 Regional Cooperation  
Europe has the highest degree of regional political and economic cooperation in the world. The  
EU has been a model of integration since its establishment 60 years ago, and now has 28 member  
countries. Its foreign policies are highly consistent and unified measures are adopted to ensure regional  
peace and social stability within the region. The Eurozone has a unified currency and has thus achieved  
unification of monetary policy. At the time of writing, roughly 338 million people in 19 countries use  
the Euro. Internal financial markets have been highly integrated, and uniform tariffs have enabled the  
free flow of goods throughout the Eurozone. In terms of politics, the high degree of integration has  
strengthened the political clout of participating countries and consolidated diversified global  
development trends. In terms of the economy, the EU has promoted economic ties among its countries,  
enhanced their global economic competitiveness and promoted international economic cooperation.  
When it comes to security, the EU has deepened cooperation in security affairs and safeguarded  
regional peace and security. In the cultural sphere, the EU has facilitated cultural integration and  
advanced global cultural communication and development.  
1.1.4 Development Strategy  
European countries generally attach importance to scientific and technological innovation and  
promote industrial transition. Germany agreed to enact its High-Tech Strategy 2025. Germany will  
invest 15 billion EUR to promote the development of cutting-edge technologies. In addition, it released  
the National Industrial Strategy 2030, which proposes to establish leading enterprises with appropriate  
help from the state in key industrial fields, so to maintain German industrial competitiveness in Europe  
and the world. The UK published a White Paper on Industrial Strategy: Building a Britain Fit for the  
Future, which aims to improve its capacity for research and development and innovation, promote  
economic development and transition with technology, and to seize opportunities for global  
technological and industrial change. In 2013, 2015 and 2017, the French government proposed  
strategies such as New Industrial France, Future Industry and Ambition of French Industry, with the  
aim of driving the transition and upgrading of French industry through innovation. Italy launched a  
National Industry 4.0 Plan (2017−2020), which provides support for enterprises and aims to promote  
investment in new technologies, research and development and revitalize the competitiveness of Italian  
companies. The Russian government has proposed strategies to speed up the development of science  
and technology to actively promote the application of digital technology in the economic and social  
fields, whilst maintaining stable macroeconomic development. Russia aims to exceed global average  
economic growth and thus become one of the world’s top five economies. The Norwegian government  
released its strategy to promote development planning in the data center industry, hoping to become a  
world-class participant in the data center field. Belarus has put forward a social and economic  
development program for 2016−2020 and a National Strategy for Sustainable Development for the  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: WorId Health Organization, WorId Health Statistics 2018, 2018.  
1
Development in Europe  
005  
Period to 2030, for the purposes of enhancing economic competitiveness and promoting investment and  
innovative development.  
Table 1-1 Development Plans of European Countries  
Country  
Official strategies  
High-Tech Strategy 2025, National Industrial Strategy 2030  
Germany  
The Future of Manufacturing Industry: New Opportunities and Challenges for Britain; Industrial Strategy: Building a  
Britain Fit for the Future  
UK  
France  
Italy  
New Industrial France, Future Industry and Ambition of French Industry  
National Industry 4.0 Plan (2017−2020), National Research Programme 2015−2020  
Strategy of Norway as a Data Center Country  
Norway  
Sweden  
Russia  
Ukraine  
Belarus  
Vision for Sweden 2025  
National Programme: Mission Indicators and Basic Objectives  
Economic Reform and Reconstruction Plan, Sustainable Development Strategy “Ukraine - 2020”  
National Strategy for Sustainable Development for the Period to 2030 of the Republic of Belarus  
The EU formulates ten-year strategy for economic and social development. In June 2010, the  
EU formally adopted Europe 2020: Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Strategy, the EU’s  
economic and social development strategy for the second decade of the 21st century. The Europe 2020  
Strategy has clearly defined three strategic priorities for development in the economic and social fields.  
First, Europe needs to build an economic development model based on the knowledge economy and  
technological innovation in order to realize intelligent growth. Second, Europe needs to establish a  
sustainable economic growth model that makes effective use of resources, environmental protection and  
competitive advantages. Third, Europe needs to promote regional integration, enhance social cohesion  
and achieve inclusive growth. The Europe 2020 Strategy sets specific development goals for scientific  
and technological innovation, green development and poverty eradication, such as encouraging  
scientific and technological innovation, developing clean energy, increasing energy efficiency,  
accelerating the upgrade of European Energy Interconnection, and increasing employment  
opportunities.  
The CIS countries strengthen economic cooperation and development. The heads of the CIS  
states signed the CIS 2020 Economic Development Strategy in 2008 in order to inject new impetus into  
the economic development, ensure stable and balanced economic growth and economic security, and  
improve competitiveness. It specifies important areas of cooperation such as establishing a free trade  
zone, deepening cooperation in the field of energy, developing a common market for agricultural  
products, strengthening investment and production cooperation, and improving transportation. In 2019,  
the CIS Council of Heads of State proposed to formulate a plan for innovative cooperation among the  
member countries by 2030.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
006  
1.2 Resources and Environment  
1.2.1 Natural Resources  
Russia and Central and Eastern Europe are rich in mineral resources. Russia leads the world in  
reserves of iron ore and aluminum. Its uranium reserves account for 14% of the world’s proven reserves.  
Apatite in Russia accounts for 65% of the world’s proven reserves. Nickel reserves of Russia accounts  
for 30% of the world’s proven reserves, its tin accounts for 30% of the world’s proven reserves. It also  
boasts rich non-metallic mineral resources. The Central and Eastern Europe is rich in mineral resources.  
Poland has the world’s 7th largest reserves of silver, 8th largest reserves of copper and 11th largest  
reserves of lead. Serbia has the world’s 7th largest reserves of lithium. Albania ranks 2nd in Europe in  
terms of reserves and output of copper, and leads the world in reserves and output of chromium. Mineral  
resources in other European countries are limited in quantity, which are mostly imported.  
Fossil energy resources are abundant, mainly concentrated in Russia. Europe is rich in coal  
resources, with proven reserves of about 295 billion tonnes accounting for 28% of the world’s total.  
This is mainly distributed across Russia, Germany, and Ukraine, with Russia accounting for more than  
54% of Europe’s reserves.1 Proven oil reserves are about 16.4 billion tonnes, accounting for 6.7% of  
the world’s total, mainly in Russia, Norway and Northern Europe, with Russia accounting for 89% of  
European reserves. Natural gas resources are also abundant, with proven reserves of about 42.8  
trillion m3, accounting for 21.7% of the world’s total. Natural gas is mainly found in Russia, Ukraine,  
and Norway, and again Russia accounts for 91% of European reserves. Russia’s proven reserves of oil,  
natural gas and mineral resources have increased annually, further consolidating its position as the  
world’s largest resource center. The overview of fossil energy resources in Europe is shown in  
Table 1-2.  
Table 1-2 Fossil Energy Resources in Europe  
Coal  
Oil  
Natural gas  
Region  
Total  
(billion tonnes)  
Global share  
(%)  
Total  
(billion tonnes)  
Global share  
(%)  
Total  
Global share  
(%)  
(trillion m3)  
Germany  
Norway  
Russia  
Ukraine  
Others  
36.1  
—
3.4  
—
—
0.5  
6.0  
—
—
—
0.8  
—
1.1  
1.6  
160.3  
34.4  
64.2  
15.2  
3.3  
14.6  
—
38.9  
1.1  
19.8  
0.6  
6.1  
0.7  
0.2  
1.2  
0.5  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2019.  
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Development in Europe  
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There is great potential for clean energy development. The gross theoretical potential of  
hydropower resources in Europe is 6.4 PWh/year1, mainly distributed in the major mountain river  
systems of continental Europe, the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey, the Volga River Basin and  
the Yenisey River Basin in Russia. The theoretical potential of wind energy resources in Europe is about  
230 PWh/year, mainly distributed in the coastal seas of Denmark and Greenland, and in coastal areas of  
Ireland, UK, France, Germany and Poland. The theoretical potential of solar energy resources in Europe  
is about 21700 PWh/year, mainly distributed in Southern Europe countries such as Spain and Italy, with  
their annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI) greater than 1600 kWh/m2.  
1.2.2 Ecological Environment  
Europe is dominated by a temperate climate, with dense river networks containing plenty of  
water and abundant forest resources. Most of Europe has a temperate maritime or temperate  
continental climate. The western part of Europe falls under a temperate maritime climate, which is  
moderately humid with ample rainfall. From West to East, the climate of the Continental Europe  
gradually changes from maritime to continental, being dry and rainless with big daily and annual  
fluctuations in temperature. Coastal areas of the Mediterranean feature a Mediterranean climate with  
hot and dry summers and mild and rainy winters. The river networks in Europe are concentrated. The  
rivers are short with large volumes of water. The main rivers are the Volga River, the Danube River and  
the Yenisey River. Many lakes in Europe contribute greatly to improving the surrounding climate and  
environment. Finland is known as the “Land der tausend Seen” (meaning the country with a thousand  
lakes). Europe is rich in forest resources with forest coverage of 46%, ranking second in the world.2 EU  
countries lose about 1000 km2 of agricultural land3 each year on average due to infrastructure construction  
and urban expansion. Agricultural land accounts for small proportion of European land use.  
Carbon emissions in Europe are declining year by year. From 1990 to 2016, annual carbon  
dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Europe fell from 7.3 billion tonnes to 5.4 billion  
tonnes, and its total contribution to the world’s total decreased from 35.6% to 16.7%. The CO2  
emissions of the EU are 3.2 billion tonnes, accounting for 59.3% of Europe’s total. Russia produced 1.4  
billion tonnes, 26.7% of Europe’s total. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Europe mainly  
come from oil and natural gas. The emissions are mainly from the power and heating sector and  
the transport sector. In 2016, CO2 emissions from coal, oil and natural gas combustion accounted for  
30%, 35% and 35% respectively, and those from fossil energy consumption in the power and heating  
sector and transport sector made up 42% and 25% of the total respectively. In recent years, Europe  
has frequently suffered from extreme weather, leading to severe economic and human losses.  
During the period from 1980 to 2017, extreme weather such as floods, droughts and heat waves have  
caused economic losses of 452.6 billion EUR to 33 countries in the European Economic Area. High  
temperatures and heat waves have caused nearly 80000 deaths, comprising 87% of the total.4 The high  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection, 2015.  
2Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, State of the World’s Forests, 2016.  
3Source: United Nations Environment Programme, Global Environment Outlook 6: Assessment for the Pan-European Region, 2016.  
4Source: European Environment Agency, Economic Losses Caused by Extreme Weather in Europe, 2019.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
008  
temperature event from June to September in 2003 caused 70000 deaths.1 Extreme weather events such  
as storms resulted in economic losses of 175.5 billion EUR, 38.8% of the total economic loss. In 2010,  
the 44-day high temperature and heat wave event in Russia also led to 55000 deaths.2 The deaths and  
economic losses caused by climate-related disasters in Europe from 1980 to 2017 is shown in Figure 1-4.  
Figure 1-3 CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion in Europe3  
Figure 1-4 Proportions of Deaths and Economic Losses Caused by  
Climate-related Disasters in Europe from 1980 to 20174  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: Shaposhnikov et al. Mortality Related to Air Pollution with the Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfire of 2010, 2014.  
2Source: World Meteorological Organization, Statement on the State of the Global Climate, 2018.  
3Source: International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2018.  
4Climate-related disasters include storms, floods, extreme coldness, droughts, wildfires, etc.  
1
Development in Europe  
009  
European countries are actively responding to climate change. A number of major European  
countries have signed the Paris Agreement and formulated National Determined Contributions (NDCs)  
for climate change, as well as medium and long-term emission reduction strategies. The EU is  
committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40%1 by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.  
The UK2, France3, Finland4, Sweden5, Denmark6 and other EU countries have set “achieving carbon  
neutrality by 2050” as a long-term emission reduction goal, and Finland has proposed to realize net zero  
emissions by 2035. Russia has promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25%−30%7 by  
2030 and Ukraine by 40%8, compared with 1990 levels. Switzerland is committed to reducing  
greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and by 75%−80% by 2050.9 Norway has committed itself  
to a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels.10 In 2017, Norway  
committed to working towards the goal of becoming a low carbon society by 2050.11  
1.3 Energy and Power  
1.3.1 Energy Development  
Energy production is dominated by oil and natural gas, and the total volume remains stable. From  
2000 to 2010, energy production in Europe increased from 3.28 billion tonnes of coal equivalent (tce) to  
3.54 billion tce, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8%. From 2010 to 2016, it has remained stable  
at 3.55 billion tce, with an average annual growth of 0.5% from 2000 to 2016, accounting for 18% of  
the global total.12 The per capita energy production is 4.3 tce, which is about 1.6 times the global  
average. In 2016, fossil energy production in Europe accounted for 76% of energy production, of which  
coal, oil and natural gas were 16%, 29% and 31% respectively. From 2000 to 2016, coal production  
continued to decline, from 0.58 billion tce to 0.56 billion tce, with an average annual reduction of 0.2%.  
Oil and natural gas production increased from 0.97 billion and 1.06 billion tce to 1.04 billion and 1.09  
billion tce respectively, with an average annual growth of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The energy  
production in Europe is shown in Figure 1-5.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: European Union, National Determined Contribution, 2016.  
2Source: United Kingdom, The Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019, 2019.  
3Source: Website of Climate Tracker, Summary of Climate Action in EU, 2019.  
4Source: Finland, Osallistuva ja Ammattitaitoinen Suomi, 2019.  
5Source: Government Offices of Sweden, The Climate Policy Framework, 2018.  
6Source: Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate in Denmark, Together for a Greener Future, 2018.  
7Source: Russia, Intended National Determined Contribution, 2015.  
8Source: Ukraine, National Determined Contribution, 2016.  
9Source: Switzerland, National Determined Contribution, 2017.  
10Source: Norway, National Determined Contribution, 2016.  
11Source: Ministry of Climate and Environment in Norway, Climate Change Act, 2017.  
12Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Balance, 2017.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
010  
Figure 1-5 Energy Production in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016)  
Primary energy demand increases at first and then decreases, while the share of clean energy  
continuously increases, especially wind and solar energy. Total demand in Europe continued to grow  
until 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 0.7% from 2000 to 2010, before falling to 4.09 billion  
tce1 in 2016, with an average annual decline of 0.3% from 2010 to 2016, and accounting for 20% of the  
global total. Primary energy demand in Europe is shown in Figure 1-6. The per capita energy  
consumption was 5 tce, which was 1.8 times the global average. From 2000 to 2016, the share of fossil  
energy demand in Europe fell from 80% to 72.8%. Coal and oil demand continued to decline. Natural  
gas demand increased at first and then decreased. Coal, oil and natural gas accounted for 15.5%, 27.5%  
and 29.8% of primary energy demand, respectively. The share of clean energy continued to increase  
from 20% to 27.2%, which was 4 percentage points higher than the global average. The primary energy  
demand structure in Europe in 2016 is shown in Figure 1-7.  
Figure 1-6 Primary Energy Demand in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016)  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Primary energy equivalent calculation adopts the partial substitution method, same for the follows. In this method, the primary energy equivalent of renewable  
energy sources of electricity generation represents the amount of energy that would be necessary to generate an identical amount of electricity in coal-fired  
power plants.  
1
Development in Europe  
011  
Figure 1-7 Primary Energy Demand Structure in Europe in 2016  
Final energy consumption, dominated by oil and natural gas, increases at first and then  
decreases, and the share of electricity in final energy consumption continuously increases. From  
2000 to 2010, total final energy consumption in Europe increased from 2.57 billion tce to 2.70 billion  
tce, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%, and then fell to 2.63 billion tce in 2016, with an  
average annual decline of 0.5% from 2010 to 2016. Final energy consumption in Europe from 2010 to  
2016 is shown in Figure 1-8. The industry, transport, residential, and business sectors accounted for  
25%, 26%, 25% and 14% respectively of total final energy consumption in 2016. From 2000 to 2016,  
oil consumption continued to decline, natural gas consumption increased first and then decreased. Total  
oil and natural gas consumption remained stable at about 1.61 billion tce. The proportion of oil and  
natural gas in final energy consumption continued to decrease from 39% and 24% to 37.1% and 24.5%  
respectively, and the share of coal fell to 3.7%. The proportion of electricity continued to increase from  
17.2% to 19.4%, slightly higher than the global average. The final energy consumption structure in  
Europe in 2016 is shown in Figure 1-9.  
Figure 1-8 Final Energy Consumption in Europe (2000, 2010 and 2016)  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
012  
Figure 1-9 Final Energy Consumption Structure in Europe in 2016  
1.3.2 Electric Power Development  
Total electricity consumption is high, and the per capita electricity consumption is leading the  
world. In 2017, the total electricity consumption in Europe was 4.8 PWh, accounting for 21% of global  
electricity consumption, and was concentrated in Western Europe and RBUM, which accounted for  
35% and 25% respectively. In 2017, the European electricity access rate was 100%. Annual electricity  
consumption per capita was 5885 kWh, which was about 1.9 times of the world average. In 2017, the  
country with the highest per capita electricity consumption in Europe was Iceland, reaching 55 MWh.  
In Norway, Finland and Sweden, the annual electricity consumption per capita was 25 MWh, 15 MWh  
and 14 MWh respectively. Electric power development in each European sub-region is shown in Table  
1-3. The specific status of power development and installed generation structure in Europe is shown in  
Table 2-3 and Table 2-4 in Appendix 2.  
Table 1-3 Electric Power Development in Europe in 2017  
Installed generation  
capacity (GW)  
Electricity  
consumption (TWh)  
Electricity consumption  
per capita (MWh)  
Peak load  
(GW)  
Electricity  
access rate (%)  
Region  
British Isles  
Northern Europe  
Western Europe  
Southern Europe  
Eastern Europe  
Baltic States  
RBUM  
103.07  
107.57  
561.22  
175.37  
195.51  
9.27  
353  
4.976  
15.361  
6.722  
5.007  
3.977  
4.472  
5.996  
68.53  
72.08  
277.64  
84.86  
111.03  
4.6  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
411.8  
1680.8  
474.3  
686.6  
27.5  
303.14  
1209.5  
182.99  
1
Development in Europe  
013  
Clean energy accounts for a relatively high proportion of installed generation capacity, and  
per capita installed capacity is higher than the world average. In 2017, the total installed generation  
capacity in Europe was about 1.46 TW, of which, clean energy installed capacity was 790 GW,  
accounting for 54.5%. Wind power installed capacity was about 170 GW, accounting for 12%. Solar  
power installed capacity was about 110 GW, accounting for 7.7%. Hydropower installed capacity was  
about 290 GW, accounting for 20%. Thermal power installed capacity was 660 GW, accounting for  
45.5%. Nuclear power installed capacity was 160 GW, accounting for 11.3%. The structure of power  
installed capacity in 2017 is shown in Figure 1-10. In 2017, the installed capacity per capita in Europe  
was 1.8 kW, which was about 2.2 times the world average. The installed capacity of Russia and  
Germany ranked first and second respectively, with about 240 GW and 200 GW, accounting for 16.5%  
and 14.3% respectively.  
Figure 1-10 Power Generation Installed Capacity Structure in Europe by Source in 2017  
In 2017, the total power generation in Europe was about 4.8 PWh, of which clean energy  
generation was about 2.5 PWh, accounting for 52%. Wind power generation was about 0.4 PWh,  
accounting for 8%. Solar power generation was about 0.1 PWh, accounting for 2%. Hydropower  
generation was about 0.7 PWh, accounting for 15%. Nuclear power generation was about 1.1 PWh,  
accounting for 23%. Thermal power generation was about 2.3 PWh, accounting for 48%. The structure  
of power generation in Europe in 2017 is shown in Figure 1-11.  
Figure 1-11 Power Generation Structure in Europe by Source in 2017  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
014  
The overall development level of European power grids is high and the interconnection is  
tight. At present, forty-three operators from thirty-six countries in Europe have joined the European  
Transmission Operators Alliance (Entso-E), making it the world’s largest cross-border power grid. The  
highest grid voltage of Continental Europe, Northern Europe and the UK & Ireland is 400 kV, and that  
of Baltic States is 330 kV. These four regional power grids are connected by DC lines. The Continental  
European grid is connected to the grid of North Africa via double-circuit Spain−Morocco 400 kV lines.  
In addition, the Continental European grid is connected with Ukrainian grid in the east, and connected  
with the Western Asia grid in the southeast. The Baltic States grid is connected to the Russian grid. The  
current status of grid interconnection in Europe is shown in Figure 1-12.  
Figure 1-12 Illustration of Current Grid Interconnections in Europe  
Europe values clean development and is a pioneer in addressing climate change and a  
promoter of clean energy. In order to address climate change, the EU proposes that 80% of electricity  
will come from renewable sources by 2050, and has set the interconnection target between countries to  
reach 15% by 2030. Germany will retire all nuclear power by 2022 and all coal power by 2038. France  
will retire all coal power by 2021 and reduce nuclear power by 50% by 2025. The UK and Italy will  
retire all coal power by 2025 and Belgium will retire all nuclear power by 2025. The Russian Ministry  
of Energy has proposed wind power, photovoltaic power generation and small-scale hydropower below  
25 MW as key support areas.  
1
Development in Europe  
015  
1.3.3 Market Status  
Europe is the pioneer of the global carbon market and has promoted significant reductions in  
emissions. The EU’s carbon emissions trading system was launched in 2005. It is the world’s largest  
carbon market, controlling emissions in the power, industrial and aviation sectors within the EU. It  
covers nearly 2 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, accounting for 40% of the EU’s total  
emissions. Driven by the market mechanism, the EU emissions have been declining year by year, and  
its share of global greenhouse gas emissions has decreased from 14%, at the time the market started, to  
about 9%. The success of the market mechanism has helped decouple emissions from economic  
development. Economic development in the EU has increased by 58% in the period from 1990 to 2017,  
but total emissions decreased by 22% during the same time period, and emission intensity decreased by  
52%. Carbon trading has also brought huge financial benefits. By the end of 2018, the EU’s carbon  
market had accumulated fiscal revenues of 35.9 billion EUR, reaching 14.2 billion EUR in the same  
year. More than 80% of fiscal revenue generated has been used by countries to carry out climate  
governance-related activities to promote further improvements in emissions reductions through new  
technology, methods and increased efficiency.  
Europe has pioneered the global regional electricity market to effectively promote the  
development of clean energy. The EU countries have promoted successive power market reforms since  
around the year 2000 and have promoted the establishment of a unified market for electricity. After  
nearly 20 years of development, it now forms the world’s largest regional cross-border electricity  
market. Twenty-three countries have achieved day-ahead joint market trading. Fourteen countries have  
achieved intraday joint market trading. Annual cross-border electricity transactions exceed 500 TWh.  
The market mechanism has effectively promoted the large-scale development and wide-area allocation  
of clean energy. In 2016, the EU’s non-hydro renewable energy generation reached 579.8 TWh,  
accounting for 18% of total power generation. Compared with the pre-2000 unreformed market,  
installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy increased by more than 1000%, power generation  
increased by nearly 1100%, and the power generation in the market increased by 900%. A  
well-designed electricity market environment and a trading mechanism adapted to the development of  
renewable energy will enable renewable energy to obtain better market returns, and further drive  
investment in renewable energy projects in Europe. In 2017, total renewable energy investment reached  
40.9 billion USD, including 28 billion USD in wind energy and 10.8 billion USD in solar energy. The  
investment and growth rate of renewable energy in main European countries in 2017 are shown in  
Figure 1-13.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
016  
Figure 1-13 2017 Investment in Renewable Energy and Annual  
Growth Rate of Main European Countries  
2
Challenges and Ideas  
of Sustainable  
Development  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
018  
2
Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development  
Europe is the most economically developed region in the world. However, it is still confronted with  
challenges such as sluggish economic growth, imbalances in regional development, slowing rates of  
carbon emissions reductions and heavy dependence on energy imports. In order to safeguard its future,  
Europe must continuously embrace green and low-carbon development and strengthen interconnectivity  
in its broader energy infrastructure. It must continue its transition to clean and low-carbon energy,  
transform and upgrade industrial innovation, enhance social inclusion and eliminate imbalances in  
development. European Energy Interconnection will promote sustainable development and set the  
example for global energy transition and climate governance.  
2.1 Development Challenges  
New stimulus for economic development is urgent. The 2008 economic crisis and European  
sovereign debt crisis have drained Europe of much of its economic vitality. The annual average growth  
rate during the period of 2001−2016 was only 1.1 %, far lower than the global average of 2.8%.1  
Europe faces declining industrial competitiveness, and superiority in the traditional manufacturing  
industries is receding as global market shares continuously shrink. Europe is characterized by  
unbalanced regional development, with Western and Northern Europe being generally more developed.  
2
The total GDP of the EU in 2017 amounted to around 15.3 trillion EUR , half of which was generated  
by Germany, the UK and France. Since the European sovereign debt crisis, economic disparities  
between EU member states have been growing and structural problems are becoming more apparent. In  
the face of imbalances in development trends, all countries are actively seeking new economic growth  
points to accelerate economic recovery and development.  
The rate of reduction of carbon emissions has slowed. European countries are actively tackling  
climate change and reducing carbon emissions by accelerating the development of clean energy,  
promoting electric vehicles and improving energy efficiency. Although greenhouse gas emissions in  
Europe continuously fall year by year, the rate of reduction has slowed.3 Limited by clean energy  
resources and utilization conditions, high development costs and reduced financial subsidies, hitting the  
long-term climate target by 2050 remains a major challenge. At the same time, Europe remains  
vulnerable to climate change. In recent years, many countries have experienced extreme high  
temperature events, with temperatures in Greece, Italy and other countries exceeding 40°C, which is  
significantly higher than previous records. This has made clear the need to intensify efforts to reduce  
and manage climate change.  
The EU is heavily dependent on imports of fossil energy. External dependence on fossil energy  
continuously rises. In 2016, net imports of coal, oil and natural gas in the EU are 0.14 billion, 0.76  
billion and 0.39 billion tce respectively. Dependence on imports is 61.2%, 87.4% and 70.4%  
respectively, representing increases of 19 percentage points, 11 percentage points and 22 percentage  
points from the dependence in 2000.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: World Bank, 2019.  
2Source: World Bank, 2019.  
3European Union Commission, A Clean Planet for All, 2018.  
2
Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development  
019  
2.2 Development Ideas  
2.2.1 Development Concept of Global Energy Interconnection  
The unreasonable energy development model is the key factor that triggers the challenge of global  
sustainable development. Large consumption of fossil fuels leads to a series of severe problems such as  
global resource shortage, environmental pollution, climate change, and health issues and poverty. The  
core of sustainable development lies in clean development. Building the Global Energy Interconnection  
(GEI) provides a fundamental solution to promote global energy transition and accelerate clean energy  
development. The GEI is a modern energy system steering towards clean energy production,  
widespread energy allocation and electrification of energy consumption as well as an important  
platform for large-scale development, transmission and utilization of clean energy at a global level. The  
GEI is “Smart Grid + Ultra High Voltage (UHV) Grid + Clean Energy”.  
Building the GEI will bolster efforts to promote “Two Replacements, One Increase, One  
Restore, and One Conversion”.  
Two Replacements  
Two Replacements are to use clean alternatives in energy production, replacing fossil  
fuels with hydro, solar, and wind energy known as Clean Replacement, and to promote  
Electricity Replacement in energy consumption, replacing coal, oil, natural gas and  
firewood with electricity.  
One Increase  
One Increase means increasing the level of electrification, thus enlarging the proportion  
of electricity in energy mix and improving the energy efficiency.  
One Restore  
One Restore is to restore fossil fuel to its basic attribute as industrial raw material to  
create even greater value in socio-economic development.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
020  
One Conversion  
One Conversion means that CO2, water and other substances will be converted to fuels  
and raw materials like hydrogen, methane and methanol by virtue of electricity to  
resolve the resource constraints and pave the way for sustainable development of  
mankind.  
The GEI is a clean energy-dominant, electric-centric modern energy system that is globally  
interconnected, jointly constructed and mutually beneficial to all. Building the GEI can promote  
transition in energy development, allocation, and consumption. This will provide everyone with clean,  
safe, cheap, and efficient energy, meanwhile opening up a path for sustainable global development  
through clean energy development.  
2.2.2 European Energy Interconnection Promoting Sustainable  
Development in Europe  
To achieve sustainable development, Europe needs to fully embrace the concept of clean,  
low-carbon and efficient development. Based on the population, economic growth and industrial  
development of different European countries and regions, it needs to take into account  
technological innovation, climate and environmental development constraints, and the differences  
in resources and development stages of different countries. It needs to further increase  
electrification, promote the development of Electricity-Carbon Market, lead the clean transition  
of global energy resources, promote social integration and development, fully implement the 2°C  
temperature control target of the Paris Agreement, deepen regional integration, and realize the  
coordinated and sustainable development of economy and society, resources and environment,  
humans and nature.  
The foundations to achieving sustainable development in Europe are accelerating the  
development of clean energy, strengthening energy infrastructure interconnectivity, realizing  
energy transition and green and low-carbon development. The overall guidelines of European  
2
Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development  
021  
Energy Interconnection are as follows. First, Europe should work faster on clean energy development  
within the region and step up imports of clean energy to satisfy the needs of socio-economic  
development for energy and power in a clean and green manner, thereby guaranteeing a safe, clean and  
efficient energy supply. Secondly, the region should expend greater efforts on electrification, build an  
electricity-centered energy structure, enhance the utilization efficiency of energy throughout the whole  
process, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and build a new electricity carbon mechanism, thereby  
setting a good example for global energy transition and climate governance to the world. Finally,  
Europe should accelerate the construction and upgrading of power grids across all countries, improve  
cross-border interconnection, seek enhanced inter-continental power exchange capacity, push forward  
power integration across the region and build a platform for cooperation on energy and power between  
Europe and its surrounding regions, thereby optimizing resource allocation on a larger scale and  
coordinating regional development.  
2.3 Development Priorities  
Continuously expand Electricity Replacement and raise the efficiency of energy utilization.  
Electric power is a clean, efficient, convenient and widely-used secondary energy, and is an  
indispensable means of production and living in modern society. Europe should continuously expand its  
extensive Electricity Replacement on the consumer side, and increase the proportion of electricity in  
final energy consumption. Meanwhile, it is necessary to improve energy utilization efficiency (for  
example by promoting energy-saving technological innovation, optimizing industrial structure, and  
promoting circular-economy utilization mode), further improve the electrification level in European  
production and life, and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system for Europe.  
Accelerating the development of clean energy and achieving clean and diversified energy  
development. Europe must stick to the fundamental course of clean, low-carbon and highly efficient  
development in establishing European Energy Interconnection, accelerate the promotion of Clean  
Replacement, take full advantage of clean energy resources in Europe, and develop large-scale clean  
energy bases. At the same time, it should focus on the development of hydropower in Scandinavia, the  
upper stream of Tigris-Euphrates River Basin (Turkey), Volga River Basin and Yenisey River Basin  
(Russia), offshore wind power bases in UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Denmark in the North  
Sea Region, solar energy in Italy, Spain, Portugal and other countries in south part of Europe, and  
accelerate the formation of a diversified development pattern of clean energy to achieve a clean and  
reliable energy and electricity supply.  
Strengthening energy interconnection and promoting win-win cooperation. Energy is the  
foundation of sustainable economic development in Europe. Energy interconnectivity and economic  
integration promote each other over the long-term. Countries become more closely linked through  
coordinated development and the sharing of the fruits of cooperation. Europe is geographically adjacent  
to Africa and West Asia, giving it a foundation for energy cooperation. They are highly complementary  
in terms of energy resources, production and consumption. Large-scale development, rational use and  
optimal allocation of clean energy can provide a new impetus for coordinated development between  
Asia, Europe and Africa.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
022  
In general, Europe will continuously enhance regional integration, leading the global clean  
energy transition and the fight against climate change. European Energy Interconnection will  
help realize the harmonious and sustainable development of the economy and human society,  
resources and the environment, and mankind and nature, deliver clean, low-carbon, efficient  
energy supply, and realize multi-energy complements and shared regional growth though  
collaboration.  
3
Energy and Power  
Development  
Trends  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
024  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
Energy and power development trends are studied and analyzed, in order to promote the comprehensive,  
coordinated and sustainable development of the economy, society and environment, and to achieve the  
2°C temperature control target of the Paris Agreement. The factors considered include resources,  
population, the economy, industry, technology and environment. The models used contain energy and  
power demand forecasting model and power generation planning model of Global Energy  
Interconnection (as shown in Appendix 1). Europe will move towards a clean-dominated development  
on the energy supply side and an electricity-centered development on the energy consumption side,  
while total energy demand is declining. The electrification of final sectors will be accelerated and the  
power demand will grow. With the rapid decline in generation cost of wind and solar power, the  
installed capacity of clean energy will continuously rise. Both centralized and distributed clean energy  
will be developed, and clean energy is being both developed within the continent and imported  
externally from other continents. Meanwhile, the integration of the electricity market and the carbon  
market in Europe will play an important role in optimizing resource allocation and promoting energy  
transition and low-carbon development.  
3.1 Energy Demand  
3.1.1 Overall Development  
Energy efficiency improvement and technological breakthrough are the main forces of the decline  
in European energy demand. Europe has an advanced economy, with GDP per capita of about 26000  
USD ranking among the highest in the world. However, due to a shortage of labor and an aging  
population, the growth rate in Europe is expected to slow. Taking into account factors such as  
population, market and resources, it is expected that the average annual GDP growth will be 1.5%  
between 2020 and 2050. Major European countries have entered the late stage of industrialization. In  
the future, the transfer of high-energy-consuming industries will be accelerated, the industrial structure  
will continue to develop towards high added value and low energy consumption, and the quality of  
economic development will be further improved. European countries generally attach importance to the  
role of energy efficiency in reducing energy consumption, adopting various measures to improve energy  
efficiency, and reduce energy costs and energy import dependence. The main measures include  
energy-saving renovation of old buildings, promoting the development of electric vehicles, popularizing  
advanced industrial technology, implementing intelligent process management, establishing a  
mandatory energy-efficiency labeling system, and cultivating public awareness of energy conservation.  
Considering factors such as slowing economic growth and improving energy efficiency, it is expected  
that energy demand in Europe will gradually decline in the future.  
Primary energy demand will develop towards clean and low-carbon. Europe has a sound  
foundation for clean energy development and leads the world in technology. In the future, European  
countries will continue and further strengthen the policy of coal withdrawal and fuel vehicle ban,  
rapidly reduce dependence on coal and oil, and gradually reduce the share of natural gas. As clean  
energy power generation technology matures, the competitiveness will exceed fossil energy power  
generation, laying the foundation for clean development in Europe. All kinds of clean energy in Europe  
will be developed and optimized in both centralized and distributed manner. In a centralized manner, it  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
025  
should mainly develop offshore wind power in regions such as the North Sea and the Baltic Sea,  
hydropower in regions or countries such as Northern Europe, Russia and Turkey, and solar power in  
countries such as Spain and Portugal. Besides, it should develop distributed power generation according  
to local conditions, improve energy supply diversity, and lead global clean energy development.  
The final energy consumption will develop towards electricity-centered. The electrification of  
final energy in most European Union countries is at a high level. Eastern Europe and RBUM have great  
potential for Electricity Replacement. With Electricity Replacement technology maturing, economic  
efficiency improving and the habits of various industries changing, Electricity Replacement in  
European final energy sectors will accelerate, and the share of electricity in final energy consumption  
will continuously increase.  
3.1.2 Energy Demand Outlook  
Primary energy demand will gradually decline. Total primary energy in Europe will reach 3.60  
billion tce by 2035 and 3.32 billion tonnes by 2050, by the partial substitution method. The average  
annual decline from 2016 to 2050 is forecast to be about 0.6%, with approximately 0.7% per year from  
2016 to 2035 and about 0.5% from 2036 to 2050. Per capita primary energy demand will also  
decline. Per capita energy demand in Europe will drop 18% from 5 tce in 2016 to 4.1 tce by 2050, with  
large declines of 28% in Northern Europe and 25% in Western Europe respectively. Figure 3-1 shows  
the primary energy demand forecast for each region in Europe. The detailed forecast of each region is  
shown in Table 2-2 in Appendix 2.  
Figure 3-1 Primary Energy Demand in Europe by Region  
Energy demand in Western Europe and RBUM declines significantly, while energy demand  
in Eastern Europe continuously grows. Primary energy demand in Western Europe and RBUM will  
decline rapidly, from 1.37 billion and 1.26 billion tce in 2016 to 1.04 billion and 0.95 billion tce in 2050,  
showing an average annual reduction of 0.8%. Primary energy demand in Eastern Europe will increase  
by 4%, from 0.56 billion tce to 0.58 billion tce, with an average annual growth rate of 0.1%. Primary  
energy demand in British Isles, Northern Europe and Southern Europe will continuously fall, by 13%,  
17% and 18% respectively, with average annual declines of 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. Primary  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
026  
energy demand in the Baltic States will stabilize at around 20 million tce. The average annual growth  
rate of primary energy demand in Europe is shown in Figure 3-2.  
Figure 3-2 Annual Average Growth Rate of Primary Energy Demand in Europe by Region  
Energy intensity in Europe drops by 57% to stay ahead of the world. With the optimization of  
European economic and energy structures, European energy efficiency will continuously increase.  
Energy consumption per unit of GDP in Europe will fall from 1.82 tce per 10000 USD in 2016, to 0.78  
tce per 10000 USD by 2050, constituting a drop of 57% and continuing to lead the world. Energy  
consumption per unit of GDP in each region will decrease by 46%−70% by 2050, when compared with  
levels in 2016. The energy intensity in RBUM will drop to 2.9 tce per 10000 USD, still higher than the  
current world average. The energy intensity of the other European regions will all fall to less than 1 tce  
per 10000 USD, with British Isles and Western Europe coming in the lowest with about 0.4 and 0.6 tce  
per 10000 USD respectively. The energy consumption per unit of GDP in Europe is shown in Figure  
3-3.  
Figure 3-3 Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP in Europe by Region  
The share of fossil energy in primary energy demand will continuously decline, and clean  
energy will become the dominant energy in Europe by around 2025. Fossil energy demand in  
Europe will continuously decline, from 2.95 billion tce in 2016, to 0.93 billion tce by 2050. Coal, oil  
and natural gas demand will fall by 88%, 72% and 55% respectively. Demand for clean energy in  
Europe will increase by 2.1 times from 2016 to 2050, reaching 2.4 billion tce, with an average annual  
increase of 2.2%. The proportion of clean energy in primary energy demand will increase from 30% to  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
027  
78%1, with Northern Europe leading the way of nearly 90% and RBUM having the lowest value of  
about 65%. Primary energy demand in Europe by fuel from 2016 to 2050 is shown in Figure 3-4. The  
proportion of clean energy of the sub-regions in Europe is shown in Figure 3-5.  
Figure 3-4 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in Europe (2016−2050)  
Figure 3-5 Share of Clean Energy in Primary Energy Demand in Europe  
Final energy consumption in Europe peaks before 2025. Following energy efficiency  
improvements, final energy consumption in Europe will drop from 2.63 billion tce in 2016, to 1.94  
billion tce by 2050, with an average annual decline of 0.9%. The average annual decline will be 0.6%  
from 2016 to 2035 and 1.3% from 2036 to 2050. Energy consumption in each energy sector will  
continuously decline from 2016 to 2050. Due to factors such as negative population growth and  
advancements in energy-saving technologies, the building sector in Europe will see a large energy  
reduction, accounting for 38% of the total reduction. Dropping from 1.03 billion tce to 0.77 billion tce,  
it accounts for 40% of the total final energy consumption, increasing by 1 percentage point compared to  
the level in 2016. The consumption in the transport sector will decrease from 0.67 billion tce to 0.42  
billion tce, with an average annual decline of 1.4%. This accounts for a significant decline in the  
proportion of the total final energy consumption, decreasing by 5 percentage points to 21%. The energy  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1When calculating the share of clean energy in total primary energy, fossil energy used for non-energy purposes is excluded. The same is true for the following  
ratios.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
028  
consumption in the industry sector and the non-energy use sector will decrease by 0.8% and 0.3%  
respectively, and their shares of total final energy consumption will increase by 1 percentage point and  
2 percentage points, reaching 26% and 13% respectively. The final energy consumption forecast for  
Europe is shown in Figure 3-6.  
Figure 3-6 Final Energy Consumption by Sector in Europe  
The share of electricity in final energy consumption continuously increases, and electricity  
will become the dominant final energy around 2030. The proportion of power generating energy in  
total primary energy will increases from 39% by 2016 to 69% by 2050, while the share of electricity in  
final energy increases from 24% to 59%.1 The proportions of coal, oil and natural gas in final energy  
will decrease by 73%, 70% and 41% respectively. Northern Europe and British Isles will have the  
highest electrification level, reaching 74% and 72% respectively by 2050. The consumption for  
different energy resources and the share of electricity in Europe are shown in Figure 3-7.  
Figure 3-7 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel and Share of Electricity in Europe  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1When calculating the share of electricity in total final energy consumption, fossil energy used for non-energy use purposes will not be counted. This is also the  
case in what follows.  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
029  
The share of electricity in the transport sector will see a significant increase of 43 percentage  
points, and the building sector will have the highest share of electricity. The electrification potential  
of the building sector from 2016 to 2050 will mainly come from significant increases in electricity  
consumption for commercial purposes and data centers, of which the share of electricity is expected to  
increase from 28% to 69%. Thus, the building sector exceeds the industry sector, and becomes the  
sector with the highest level of electrification. In the transport sector, with the widespread use of electric  
vehicles, railway electrification and hydrogen energy transport, the share of electricity will increase  
from 3% to 46%. As European industry moves towards higher efficiency and lower energy consumption,  
electricity production lines and electric furnaces will be the main equipment for manufacturing,  
resulting in an increased share of electricity in the industry sector from 31% to 54%. Figure 3-8 shows  
the proportion of electricity in the final energy sectors in Europe.  
Figure 3-8 Share of Electricity in Final Energy Sectors in Europe  
3.2 Power Demand  
3.2.1 Overall Development  
The assumptions of power demand forecast are that the European socioeconomic development  
will be steady. The electrification of transport, industry and other sectors will increase with  
related policies and financial supports. The advanced technologies will be significantly improved  
and rapidly popularized, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen production by  
electrolysis, etc. The power demand will continuously grow steadily in the future.  
Electricity Replacement in the transport, heating and cooling sectors will be the main driving  
force of power demand growth. Based on the increasing demand for heating/cooling, and the  
improvement of energy efficiency due to the use of heat pumps, heating/cooling demand is expected to  
increase by 1.3 PWh by 2035 and 1.7 PWh by 2050. The proportion of electricity in the additional  
heating/cooling demand of Europe’s residential and service sectors is forecast to reach 40%−50% by  
2035, and 60%−70% by 2050, while the relevant proportions in the industry sector are expected to be  
20%−25%, and 30%−35% respectively. In the transport sector, it is assumed that passenger vehicles and  
small and medium-sized trucks will be electric vehicles, and large trucks will employ hydrogen vehicles  
to achieve indirect Electricity Replacement, using water electrolysis technology. In the transport sector,  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
030  
additional power demand will amount to around 380 TWh by 2035 and 850 TWh by 2050. Electric  
vehicles will be scaled up to 330 million by 2050, accounting for around 90% of cars. The Electricity  
Replacement ratio of small and medium-sized electric trucks will reach 60%−75%, and that of large  
trucks will reach 15%. The structure of Electricity Replacement in the heating and cooling sector and  
the transport sector in Europe are illustrated in Figure 3-9 and Figure 3-10.  
Figure 3-9 Additional Electricity Consumption of Electricity Replacement  
in Europe’s Heating and Cooling Sector  
Figure 3-10 Additional Electricity Consumption of Electricity Replacement  
in Europe’s Transport Sector  
Large data centers will be the new growth momentum of power demand. The growth of digital  
economy will support the digital transition of the industrial and service sectors and facilitate the rapid  
expansion of data volume and server size. Progress and widespread application of cloud technology and  
high-speed communication technology will facilitate more concentrated development of data centers on  
a larger scale in the future, and thus become new power demand growth momentum. Northern Europe  
countries, such as Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, possess advantages in climate conditions,  
clean energy resources and network infrastructure, which has already put them on the path towards  
becoming important large data centers. Most data centers are expected to locate in Northern Europe and  
British Isles in the future. It is predicted that Europe will build or upgrade 10 to 20 large data centers on  
a yearly basis, creating around 25 TWh of additional power demand. The additional power demand of  
large data centers will rise to 400 TWh by 2035 and 620 TWh by 2050, which will be roughly 8% of  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
031  
Europe’s total power consumption. The current and 2050 layout of Europe’s data centers is shown in  
Figure 3-11.  
Figure 3-11 Illustration of Current and 2050 Layout of Europe’s Data Centers  
3.2.2 Power Demand Outlook  
Total power demand in Europe will maintain steady growth. In 2050, the power demand will be  
1.7 times and peak load will be 1.8 times that of 2017. The total power demand in Europe will  
increase from 4.8 PWh in 2017 to 6.7 PWh by 2035 and 8.1 PWh by 2050. The average annual growth  
rate for 2017−2035 will be about 1.8%, and for 2036−2050 it will be about 1.1%; the peak load will  
increase from 800 GW in 2017 to 1160 GW by 2035 and 1420 GW by 2050, as shown in Figure 3-12.  
The average annual growth rate from 2017 to 2035 will be about 2.1% and then 1.2% from 2036 to  
2050. Electricity consumption forecast in Europe is shown in Table 3-1. European power demand in  
various countries is shown in Table 2-3 in Appendix 2.  
Figure 3-12 Electricity Consumption Forecast in Europe  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
032  
Table 3-1 Electricity Consumption Forecast in Europe by Region (2017−2050)  
Electricity  
consumption growth  
(%)  
Electricity consumption  
Peak load (GW)  
2035  
Load growth (%)  
(PWh)  
Region  
2017−  
2035  
2036−  
2050  
2017−  
2035  
2036−  
2050  
2017  
2035  
2050  
2017  
2050  
British Isles  
Northern Europe  
Western Europe  
Southern Europe  
Eastern Europe  
Baltic States  
RBUM  
0.35  
0.41  
1.68  
0.47  
0.69  
0.03  
1.21  
0.55  
0.50  
2.40  
0.65  
1.03  
0.04  
1.54  
0.70  
0.58  
2.88  
0.77  
1.36  
0.05  
1.81  
2.5  
1.1  
2.0  
1.8  
2.3  
1.6  
1.3  
1.3  
0.8  
1.0  
0.9  
1.6  
1.2  
0.9  
69  
72  
109  
89  
136  
102  
491  
133  
227  
9
2.6  
1.2  
2.1  
1.6  
2.4  
1.9  
2.1  
1.2  
0.8  
1.1  
0.9  
1.6  
1.4  
1.2  
278  
84  
405  
114  
170  
7
111  
5
183  
264  
326  
Per capita electricity consumption continuously rises, with the highest levels found in  
Northern Europe and Western Europe. Electricity consumption per capita in Europe is expected to  
be 8134 kWh per year by 2035 and 10033 kWh per year by 2050, more than three times as much as the  
current world electricity consumption per capita. The electricity consumption per capita of Northern  
Europe will remain the highest with 17 MWh per year by 2035 and 19 MWh per year by 2050.  
Electricity consumption per capita for Western Europe will exceed 10 MWh per year by 2050, and that  
of British Isles, Baltic States, RBUM, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe will be in the range of  
7700−9990 kWh per year. Electricity consumption per capita in different European regions is presented  
in Figure 3-13.  
Figure 3-13 Electricity Consumption per Capita Forecast in Europe by Region  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
033  
Western Europe and RBUM will remain major consumers of electricity, while Eastern  
Europe and British Isles will register high growth rates of power demand. Power demand for  
Western Europe and RBUM will reach 2.9 PWh and 1.8 PWh respectively by 2050, while that for  
Eastern Europe is forecast to be 1.4 PWh. British Isles, Southern Europe and Northern Europe will  
consume 698.3 TWh, 769.3 TWh and 578.9 TWh respectively. The Baltic States will only consume  
50.6 TWh. The annual growth rates of power demand in Eastern Europe and British Isles will be 2.1%  
from 2017 to 2050, and that of other regions are estimated to be between 1% and 1.6%. The share of  
power demand in Europe by region is shown in Figure 3-14.  
Figure 3-14 Share of Power Demand in Europe by Region  
The power demand of Russia, Germany, France and Turkey will be in a large scale. By 2050,  
there will be seven countries whose power consumption exceeds 500 TWh: Germany with 852.1 TWh,  
France with 805.9 TWh, Spain with 575.9 TWh, Turkey with 715 TWh, the UK with 641.8 TWh, Italy  
with 533.5 TWh and Russia with 1500 TWh.  
3.3 Power Supply  
3.3.1 Overall Development  
In order to meet Europe’s goals for clean energy transition and sustainable development, greater  
efforts must be made to coordinate resources, energy and power demand, energy development  
costs, land value, environmental carrying capacity and the security of power system. Coal-fired  
and oil-fired generators will be entirely decommissioned and nuclear power reduction will be  
accelerated as well. Wind and solar energy development will be prioritized. Centralized and  
distributed development of clean energy will be proceeded simultaneously with the integration of  
intra-continental supply and external imports.  
The rapid fall in wind and solar power costs is creating fertile conditions for clean energy  
development. With the rapid development of clean energy generation technology, the competitiveness  
of solar photovoltaic power and onshore wind power is expected to outperform fossil fuel across the  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
034  
world before 2025. Europe is a world leader in the commercial exploitation of its abundant wind energy  
resources. Europe’s first offshore wind farm without subsidy will be operational in the Netherlands by  
2023. Europe’s competitive edge in wind power will be further enhanced by increased industrial  
concentration, emerging synergic effects and sound policy schemes. Figure 3-15 illustrates global and  
European cost trends for wind and solar.  
Figure 3-15 Global and European Cost Forecasts for Wind and Solar  
The urgent need to address climate change is the driving force behind Europe’s efforts to  
develop clean energy. In order to achieve the goal of addressing climate change, European countries  
have formulated a series of renewable energy development policies to clarify the path and goals of  
renewable energy development. In the future, fossil energy power generation in Europe will gradually  
shift from electricity to power type. Coal and oil power installed capacity will be gradually retired and  
clean energy will become the main source of European power supply.  
The development of intra-continental clean energy supply will proceed together with external  
energy imports. The regions surrounding Europe (including North Africa, West Asia and Central Asia)  
have rich solar energy resources. Featuring outstanding development conditions, these areas boast  
significant cost advantages. Solar energy from North Africa and West Asia and wind power from  
Northern Europe have a high degree of seasonal complementarity. Power delivered from Central Asia to  
Europe facilitates Asia-Europe interconnectivity, allowing the two regions to work with different  
time-zones to support each other in different peak hours. Power grid interconnections will help to  
reduce the costs of clean energy, save land resources, and reduce seasonal installed capacity, exploiting  
complementary advantages in clean energy and diversifying supply channels.  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
035  
Box  
European Wind and Solar Energy Seasonal Difference and  
Time Zone Difference Complementary Characteristics  
Wind energy in Northern Europe is complementary to solar energy in the Mediterranean region.  
Wind energy in Northern Europe is greatly affected by seasonal changes, with high output in winter.  
The Southern European, North African and West Asian countries in the Mediterranean region are rich  
in solar energy resources, with high output in summer and low output in winter, complementing the  
wind power of Northern Europe.  
Figure 1 Illustration of Characteristics of European Offshore Wind Power and  
North African and West Asian Solar Energy  
European solar energy is complementary to Central Asian solar energy. There is a time  
3
difference of to 6 hours between Western Europe and Central Asia. Since the peak intensity of solar  
radiation in the day is generally at noon, cross-region solar complementation caused by time difference  
can be realized by connecting Western European and Central Asian power grids.  
Eastern Europe  
Figure 2 Illustration of Solar Energy Complementarity Between Europe and Central Asia  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
036  
3.3.2 Power Supply Outlook  
The share of clean energy in total generation capacity is growing. The structure will continue with  
denuclearization and decarbonization. By 2035, the total installed capacity in Europe will be 2.88  
TW, twice that of 2017. The proportion of clean energy installed capacity will increase from 54.5% in  
2017 to 84%. The proportion of wind power and solar power installed capacity will decrease from 12%  
and 7.7% in 2017 to 34.9% and 23.4% respectively. The proportion of hydropower installed capacity  
will decrease from 20% in 2017 to 17.1%. The proportion of thermal power installed capacity will  
decrease significantly, from 45.5% in 2017 to 16%. Nuclear power installed capacity will account for  
4.8%. The per capita installed capacity will be 3.5 kW, twice that of 2017.  
European total installed capacity will be about 3.82 TW by 2050, 2.6 times that of 2017. The  
installed capacity of clean energy will reach 3.54 TW, accounting for 92.7% of the total. Wind power  
and solar power installed capacity will reach 1.67 TW and 1.01 TW, accounting for 43.7% and 26.4%  
respectively. Hydropower installed capacity will reach 630 MW, accounting for 16.5%. Thermal power  
installed capacity will reach 280 MW, down to 7.3%. Nuclear power installed capacity will reach 100  
MW, down to 2.7%. Per capita installed capacity will reach 4.7 kW, 2.6 times that of 2017. Total  
installed capacity outlook is shown in Figure 3-16, and the structure of installed capacity is shown in  
Figure 3-17.  
Figure 3-16 Outlook for European Installed Capacity  
Figure 3-17 Structure of Installed Capacity in Europe  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
037  
Western Europe, RBUM and Eastern Europe will account for a larger installed capacity. In  
2050, the installed capacity of British Isles, Northern Europe, Western Europe, Southern Europe,  
Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, and RBUM will be 8%, 8%, 33%, 10%, 16%, 1% and 25%  
respectively. Western Europe and RBUM will be the main regions for power supply growth, with an  
increase of 690 MW and 630 MW respectively comparing with those of 2017, accounting for 56.1% of  
the total installed capacity in Europe. The share of installed capacity in each region is shown in Figure  
3-18. Table 2-4 in Appendix 2 shows the structure of installed generation in European countries.  
Figure 3-18 Share of Installed Capacity in Europe by Region  
Clean energy generation will account for 5.5 PWh by 2035, marking an increase to 80% from  
52% in 2017. Wind power and solar power generation will account for 32% and 14%, respectively, up  
from 8% and 2% in 2017. Hydropower generation will increase to 16% from 15% in 2017, while  
nuclear power generation will drop to 13% from 23% in 2017. Thermal power generation will provide  
1.3 PWh, down from 48% in 2017 to 19%.  
Clean energy generation will be about 7.4 PWh by 2050, accounting for 91% of the total.  
Wind power and solar power generation will account for 3.8 PWh and 1.3 PWh, respectively, increasing  
to 46% and 16%. Hydropower generation will account for 1.3 PWh, down to 16%. Nuclear power  
generation will provide 0.6 PWh, account for 7%. Thermal power generation will provide about 0.7  
PWh, accounting for 9%. The European power generation structure for 2050 is shown in Figure 3-19.  
Figure 3-19 Structure of Power Generation in Europe by Region in 2050  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
038  
3.4 Electricity-Carbon Trading  
3.4.1 Overall Development  
The challenges of the EU electricity market and carbon market drive the integrated development  
of the two markets. The main goal of the electricity market is to promote the economic allocation of  
clean energy, while the main goal of the carbon market is to achieve carbon emission reduction. The EU  
plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 and 80%−95% by 2050. The power sector  
needs to achieve the target of reducing the emission by 54%−68% by 2030 and 93%−99% by 2050. At  
present, since the electricity market and the carbon market are operated separately, increasing the power  
generation from clean energy and reducing the carbon emission are implemented through different  
policies, resulting in overlapped functions of the two markets, insufficient mechanism of emission  
reduction, and high management costs. Therefore, the goals of clean development and carbon emission  
reduction is difficult to achieve simultaneously. According to the current development pattern, it is  
estimated that the power sector will reduce the emission by 45% by 2030, resulting in an emission  
reduction gap as shown in Figure 3-20.  
Figure 3-20 Targets, Progress and Projections for Carbon Emission Reduction in the EU Power Sector  
To cope with the climate change and achieve the energy transition in the EU, an Electricity-  
Carbon Market is introduced. Based on the market, the implementable and accountable tasks of clean  
development, electrification and Electricity Replacement, can be specified through the top-level design  
of the goals of carbon emission reduction and energy transition. Electricity and emission certificates are  
combined to be the electricity-carbon products. According to the Clean Replacement task and other  
factors, the price of electricity-carbon product considers both the dynamic carbon price and the electricity  
price. When power generation enterprises and electricity consumption enterprises trade the electricity-  
carbon products, electricity trading and carbon trading are processed simultaneously to enhance the  
market competitiveness of clean energy. The market can promote the inter-regional and cross-border  
interconnection of power grids by conducting the trading of power transmission rights, and promote the  
large-scale development, allocation and utilization of high-quality and low-cost clean energy through  
3
Energy and Power Development Trends  
039  
inter-continental and cross-border electricity-carbon trade. Besides, the market can integrate different  
mechanisms and market participants of climate and energy governance to achieve efficient coordination  
of objectives, paths and resources, which effectively solve the current problems when the two markets  
are operated separately. Scientific planning the scheme and path of reducing emission will stimulate the  
emission reduction over all the sectors in a high-efficiency and low-cost way.  
The overall development plan of the Electricity-Carbon Market is aimed at achieving clean  
and low-carbon sustainable development. Firstly, the market adopts the multi-level structure of  
“National market, EU regional market, Inter-regional market”, along with the corresponding  
dispatching, operation and trading mode at all levels of markets, to realize the large-scale optimal  
allocation of clean energy and carbon resources. Secondly, the market participants include the market  
construction and management entities consisting of decision-making, trading, operating and  
coordinating, regulatory and financial management institutions, as well as the market trading entities  
consisting of energy producing enterprises, transmission and distribution enterprises, sales enterprises,  
energy users and financial investment institutions. Thirdly, the market trading products include physical  
products such as electricity-carbon and auxiliary services, warrant products such as transmission capacity,  
and service products such as financial derivatives, data and consulting. By developing these diversified  
products, the market vitality and market transaction scale can be improved. Lastly, the key mechanisms  
including electricity-carbon trading mechanism, transmission capacity trading mechanism, auxiliary  
service trading mechanism, and electricity-carbon financial trading mechanism, are adopted to improve  
market operation efficiency, maintain market fairness, and deliver a win-win scenario.  
3.4.2 Outlook of Electricity-Carbon Market  
2025 Scenario: Europe will gradually link green certificate trading to carbon emission permit to  
establish an EU Electricity-Carbon Market in reliance on warrant exchange. The overall guideline is  
proposed. By 2025, the green certificate quota of clean energy power generation enterprises will be  
linked to the carbon emission permit of thermal power enterprises. The number of green certificates will  
be converted into carbon emission permit by designing conversion methods, enabling interconversion  
between the two. The 2025 goal of clean energy power generation and carbon emission reduction is  
specified to several commitment phases. At the end of each commitment phase, the progress made will  
be evaluated, and based on which, the measures in the next phase will be optimized and revised. This  
will achieve the dynamic upgrading goals of clean development and electrification in the Electricity-  
Carbon Market.  
2035 Scenario: With the increased share of clean power generation and the reduction of carbon  
emissions in the power sector, electricity trading will be linked directly to carbon emission permit  
in the establishment of the EU Electricity-Carbon Market. The overall guideline is proposed. By 2035,  
carbon emission permit will be directly linked to the power generation costs of thermal power  
enterprises. A conversion method will be designed accordingly to incorporate the costs of carbon  
emissions into the feed-in tariff price of thermal electricity in a bid to participate in the competition of  
the electricity market. At the end of each commitment phase, the progress made will be evaluated,  
optimized and revised, and base on which, the performance of carbon markets with the energy-  
consuming sectors will be subject to an inspection to revise the relevant goals of the power and energy-  
consuming sectors for the next commitment phase. This will achieve the dynamic upgrading of  
electricity-carbon trading, meeting the targets of the energy and climate policies in EU. The  
development of Electricity-Carbon Market is demonstrated in Figure 3-21.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
040  
Figure 3-21 Scenarios of the Electricity-Carbon Trading by 2035  
2050 scenario: With the improvement of the national Electricity-Carbon Markets, a number of  
inter-continental and inter-regional markets will be established globally. The EU Electricity-Carbon  
Market is able to strengthen the electricity−carbon trading with the adjacent regional markets, realizing  
optimal allocation of the clean energy resources in a wider range, and a higher carbon reduction.  
Promote regional clean development and increase carbon emission reduction. The electricity-  
carbon trading can ensure that the carbon emission targets and the clean energy power generation  
targets are accomplished in several commitment phases by using green certificates and carbon price  
signals. The share of carbon emissions of the power sectors in EU will be reduced from 69.3% by 2016  
to 30.3% by 2035, and 4% by 2050, compared to the 1990 level, as shown in Figure 3-22. This will  
achieve the goal of the decarburization in power sectors and further boost the emission reduction of  
industry sector, accomplishing both the clean energy transition and the emission reduction.  
Figure 3-22 Target Pathway of the Emission Reduction and the Share of  
Clean Power Generation of Power Sectors in the EU  
Facilitate the expansion of green electricity trading and to promote integration in Europe.  
The benefits of the market include supporting the development of clean energy with market-based  
approaches, expanding the cross-border green electricity trading and taking the comparative advantages  
and scale effects of the countries. By 2050, apart from a small amount of reserve capacity, all the  
generation and loads in Europe will be traded in the unified electricity market, generating an annual  
transaction volume of 7900 TWh. The electricity-carbon trading will deliver a total of 7300 TWh in  
annual green electricity trading and 600 TWh in annual inter-continental green electricity trading.  
Meanwhile, the electricity-carbon trading can effectively increase the government revenue, with an  
estimated amount generated by the auctioning of carbon emission permit of 34 billion to 40 billion USD  
each year. The increased revenue will then be spent on the development of clean energy and emission  
reduction technologies, promoting regional integration.  
4
Development Layout  
of Clean Energy  
Resources  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
042  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
Europe has abundant clean energy resources. The theoretical potentials of hydro, wind and solar power  
in Europe account for 16%, 11% and 8% respectively of the global totals. Northern Europe boasts areas  
such as the North Sea and the Baltic Sea that are ripe for developing centralized wind farms. The  
centralized development region of Europe’s solar energy resources is mainly distributed across the  
southern part of the continent, and other regions focus on small-scale centralized and distributed  
development. Northern Europe features concentrated river systems, with several short and fast rivers in  
the Scandinavian Mountains. This suggests that the dominant development model for hydropower in the  
region should be small and medium scale exploitation in a distributed manner. However, the dominant  
development model for hydropower in the Tigris-Euphrates River (Turkey), the Volga River and  
Yenisey River (Russia) and other basins will be centralized exploitation.  
An assessment model for clean energy resources is proposed based on climate data such as wind,  
solar and precipitation, as well as geographic information and land data (as shown in Appendix 1). The  
distribution of clean energy resources and the layout of large-scale bases in Europe are considered on  
this basis, making reference to research results published by relevant countries and international  
organizations and institutions.  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources  
4.1.1 Hydro Energy  
The technical potential of hydropower in Europe is 3100 TWh/year1, with an exploited ratio of about  
30%. Hydropower resources in Europe are mainly distributed in the major mountain river systems, the  
upper stream of Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey and the Volga River Basin and the Yenisey  
River Basin in Russia.  
Hydropower resources of the Northern Europe are mainly distributed on both sides of the  
Scandinavian Mountains, and those of the Continental Europe are mainly distributed on both sides of  
the Alps and the Pyrenees. The river systems in major mountains are illustrated in Figure 4-1.  
The Scandinavian Mountains are located in the Southeast of the Scandinavian Peninsula in  
Northern Europe, and run through the peninsula. The mountains mainly stretch across Norway and  
Sweden. The mountains have the largest hydropower reserves in Europe. The rivers on the west never  
freeze year-round, and have high and stable cross-season runoff. All of the rivers have the  
characteristics of short length, high river drop and notably rich hydropower resources. In comparison,  
rivers on the eastern side have frozen periods with small unstable cross-season runoff and low river  
drop. The hydropower potential of rivers on both sides of the mountains is about 430 TWh/year with  
current exploitation at 57%.  
The Alps are the largest mountain range in Europe. Annual rainfall in the Alpine region exceeds  
2500 mm. Many major rivers in Europe originate from this area, including the Danube, Rhine, Po and  
Rhone rivers. The upper reaches of each river have the characteristics of typical mountain rivers, with  
fast flow and abundant hydropower resources. The hydropower potential of the river systems in the  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Resources: 2013 Survey, 2013.  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
043  
Alps is about 186 TWh/year with current exploitation at 59%.  
Figure 4-1 Illustration of River Systems in Major Mountains of Europe  
The Pyrenees extend from the Bay of Biscay (Atlantic Ocean) in the west to the Mediterranean  
Sea in the east, and form a natural border between France and Spain. The abundant annual rainfall  
causes a series of short rivers to form with a rapid flow from north to south, perpendicular to the  
mountain axis. Peak flow occurs in spring when rainfall and snowmelt are more frequent. The  
hydropower potential of the river systems in the Pyrenees is about 70 TWh/year with current  
exploitation at 38%.  
Small-sized and medium-sized hydropower stations are the main mode of hydropower  
development for the river systems of the European mountains. There are more than 1500 small-sized  
and medium-sized hydropower stations on both sides of the Scandinavian Mountains with an installed  
capacity of less than 100 MW, accounting for more than 90% of the hydropower stations in the region.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
044  
Hydropower in the Continental Europe has strong regulation capacity, especially Northern Europe  
hydropower, known as the “European Regulating Pool”, which plays an important role in promoting the  
utilization of intermittent and volatile wind and solar energy.  
The hydropower resources of Turkey are mainly distributed in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in  
the east, with a technical potential of 216 TWh/year, of which about 27% has been exploited.1 The  
Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey is illustrated in Figure 4-2.  
Figure 4-2 Illustration of Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey  
The Tigris River has its source at the southern foot of the Eastern Taurus Mountains in Turkey  
and flows southeast. It is a typical intermountain river in Turkey with narrow valleys, deep channels,  
high drop height and high flow rate, making it suitable for hydropower projects.  
The Euphrates River has its source on the Armenian Plateau, with its upper reaches located in  
Turkey. Winding through the Taurus Mountains in Southern Turkey, it has both wide and narrow valleys,  
deep gorges, and a drop height of about 300 m. Hydropower resources are abundant.  
Russia’s hydropower resources are mainly concentrated in the Volga, Yenisey, Ob and Lena River  
Basins, with a technical potential of 1.7 PWh/year, of which less than 20% has been exploited. The  
major river basins in Russia are illustrated in Figure 4-3.  
The Volga River flows from the lakes and marshes in the Valdai Hills in the western part of the  
Eastern European Plain and eventually into the Caspian Sea, with a total length of 3690 km and a  
flooding area of 1380000 km2. The Volga River has numerous tributaries and more than 200 main  
tributaries. The largest tributaries are the Oka and the Kama. The technical potential installed of  
hydropower for the Volga River is about 12 GW, with 70% exploited.  
The Yenisey River is Russia’s largest river and has the most abundant hydropower resources. The  
fast-flowing upper reaches of the Yenisey River and the shape of its main branch and tributaries are  
conducive to the development of hydropower resources. Exploitable hydropower resources are mainly  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Resources: 2013 Survey, 2013.  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
045  
concentrated on the main branch of the Yenisey River and its main tributaries, including the Angara  
River, Middle Tunguska River and Lower Tunguska River. The technically exploitable capacity of  
hydropower is about 60 GW, of which 45% has been exploited.  
Figure 4-3 Illustration of Major River Basins in Russia  
The Ob River is located in Western Siberia and has numerous tributaries and abundant water.  
With the Erzi River as its source, it is 5410 km long and covers an area of 2970000 km2. The Ob River  
meanders northwards and eventually flows eastwards into the Arctic Ocean. Its technical exploitation  
capacity is about 40 GW with an exploited ratio of about 10%.  
The Lena River has its source in the mountains along the west bank of Lake Baikal in  
Southeastern Siberia and flows into the Arctic Ocean, and has a total length of 4400 km and a flooding  
area of 2490000 km2. The Lena River and its tributaries form a concentrated river system with abundant  
hydropower resources. The technical potential installed capacity is about 40 GW, and the exploited ratio  
is about 10%. The Ob and Lena rivers have large technical exploitable potential for hydropower.  
However, due to the fact that they are far from load centers and have long glacial periods, the overall  
exploited ratios of these rivers remain low at present.  
4.1.2 Wind Energy  
1 Onshore Wind Energy  
Europe boasts abundant wind energy resources. Its theoretical potential is about 230 PWh/year1, and the  
annual average wind speed ranges from 2 m/s to 24 m/s at 100 m above the ground2. The annual  
average wind speed is typically “low in summer and high in winter”. Many areas in the coastal waters  
of Denmark and Greenland, and on the coasts of Ireland, UK, France, Germany and Poland, see wind  
speed greater than 7 m/s. Greenland has a polar climate with ice and snow cover all year round. With  
winds blowing in from the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, Greenland has rich wind energy  
resources and high wind speed, with average annual wind speed in some areas reaching 14 m/s. With  
winds from the North Atlantic, the coasts of Denmark, Ireland, UK, France, Germany and Poland also  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection, 2015.  
2Source: VORTEX.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
046  
have rich wind energy resources and high wind speed. The annual average wind speed in most coastal  
areas is greater than 8 m/s, and even exceeds 10 m/s in some areas. Areas in Europe with annual  
average wind speed less than 5 m/s are mainly found in northern Italy, northern Greece, southern  
Bulgaria and central Romania. They all have a continental climate, relatively high vegetation coverage  
and low wind speed. The distribution of annual average wind speed in Europe is shown in Figure 4-4.  
Figure 4-4 Illustration of Average Annual Onshore Wind Speed in Europe  
2 Offshore Wind Energy  
Europe boasts extraordinary offshore wind energy resources, mainly distributed in the North Sea, Baltic  
Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea.  
The North Sea is surrounded by the UK, Shetland, Scandinavia, Jutland and the Western  
Continental Europe. Most of the North Sea is a shallow continental shelf with high latitudes. Westerly  
winds prevail all year round. Wind energy resources are extremely abundant. The technical potential  
installed capacity of wind power is about 1 TW.  
The Baltic Sea is located between Scandinavia and the Continental Europe, with an average depth  
of only 55 m. It is located in the transition zone from temperate maritime climate to continental climate.  
It is dominated by westerly winds throughout the year. Storms often occur in autumn and winter. The  
technical potential installed capacity of wind power is 700 GW.  
The Norwegian Sea is located to the northwest of Norway, between the North Sea and the  
Greenland Sea, and the north part is located in the Arctic Circle. The annual average wind speed is  
greater than 9 m/s. The technical potential installed capacity of wind power is 2.4 TW.  
The Barents Sea is to the north of Norway and Russia and is a continental sea of the Arctic Ocean.  
Due to ocean currents, the sea surface in the south is not frozen all the year round and there are many  
shoals in the southeast. However, the weather is extremely unstable due to the combined influence of  
the Atlantic warm cyclone and the Arctic cold anticyclone, making it one of the stormiest bodies of  
water in the world. The technical potential installed capacity of wind power is 2.4 TW. The distribution  
of annual average offshore wind speed in Europe is shown in Figure 4-5.  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
047  
Figure 4-5 Illustration of Annual Average Offshore Wind Speed in Europe  
4.1.3 Solar Energy  
Europe has rich solar resources. The theoretical potential of solar energy in the continent is about  
12400 PWh/year1, and the annual GHI of solar energy ranges from about 700 kWh/m2 to 2100  
kWh/m2.2 The areas with high GHI (annual GHI greater than 1500 kWh/m2) include Portugal, central  
and southern Spain, southern Italy, Greece and central and southern Turkey. Northern Portugal has a  
temperate maritime broad-leaved forest climate, while southern Portugal has a subtropical  
Mediterranean climate. They are predominately covered by herbaceous vegetation and farmland, with  
high GHI. The plateau of central Spain has a continental climate, while southern and southeastern Spain  
has a subtropical Mediterranean climate. They are also predominately covered by farmland and  
herbaceous vegetation, with high GHI. Southern Italy and Greece have a subtropical Mediterranean  
climate, are mostly covered by herbaceous vegetation and farmland, and have high GHI. Turkey has a  
more changeable climate, with high temperatures in the central plateau and the southern region,  
relatively low vegetation coverage rate and high GHI (the highest GHI during a year is about 1900  
kWh/m2).  
Areas with low GHI (annual average GHI lower than 1000 kWh/m2) are mainly distributed across  
UK, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Most of these areas have a temperate maritime climate, with high  
vegetation coverage, and abundant precipitation. GHI distribution in Europe is shown in Figure 4-6.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection, 2015.  
2Source: SOLARGIS.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
048  
Figure 4-6 Illustration of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Europe  
Annual direct normal irradiance (DNI) in Europe ranges from about 400 kWh/m2 to 2400  
kWh/m2.1 The areas with high annual DNI (annual DNI greater than 2000 kWh/m2) include southern  
Portugal, southern Spain and southern Turkey. These areas have relatively low vegetation coverage rate,  
a dry climate, and high temperatures. DNI distribution in Europe is shown in Figure 4-7.  
Figure 4-7 Illustration of Direct Normal Irradiance in Europe  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases  
4.2.1 Hydropower Bases  
Considering the characteristics of hydropower and exploitation conditions, it is feasible to build  
hydropower bases in Northern Europe, Russia and Turkey.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: SOLARGIS.  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
049  
Hydropower bases in Northern Europe: Small-sized and medium-sized hydropower stations  
and pumped storage power stations along the rivers on both sides of the Scandinavian Mountains will  
be further exploited. Both Norway’s and Sweden’s hydropower systems will be expanded. The  
regulatory ability of hydropower in Northern Europe will be improved to decease the volatility of wind  
generation in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. The projected installed capacity for hydropower bases in  
Northern Europe is 92 GW by 2035 and 100 GW by 2050.  
Hydropower bases in Russia: Accelerating the centralized exploitation and efficient delivery of  
cascade hydropower stations in the Volga, Yenisey, Ob and Lena River Basins. In tandem with the  
construction of wind farms in the surrounding area, mutual complementarity of hydro and wind power  
will be improved. The projected installed capacity of hydropower bases in Russia is forecast to be 58  
GW by 2035 and 100 GW by 2050.  
Hydropower bases in Turkey: Hydropower should be actively developed in the Tigris-Euphrates  
River Basin in southeastern Turkey. Working closely with surrounding solar and wind power bases,  
hydropower will be transported to the load center in western Turkey for consumption. Turkey plans to  
build 106 new hydropower stations in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin area in the near future, with a  
planned installed capacity of 10.74 GW. The projected installed capacity of hydropower bases in  
Turkey is 30 GW by 2035 and 60 GW by 2050.  
The projected installed capacities of hydropower bases in Europe are listed in Table 4-1.  
Table 4-1 Hydropower Bases in Europe  
Unit: GW  
Projected installed  
capacity by 2035  
Projected installed  
capacity by 2050  
Base name  
Country  
Exploited ratio  
Related river systems  
Norway  
Sweden  
60%  
50%  
58  
70.5  
35.5  
Hydropower  
base in Northern  
Europe  
River systems in Scandinavian  
Mountains  
34.5  
Hydropower  
base in Russia  
Volga, Yenisey, Ob and Lena  
River Basins  
Russia  
<20%  
<15%  
58  
100  
Hydropower  
base in Turkey  
Turkey  
30  
60  
Tigris-Euphrates River Basin  
4.2.2 Wind Power Bases  
The wind power industry in Europe started early and has maintained a rapid pace of development,  
including several advanced technologies. In northern areas, distributed exploitation is the major mode  
of wind power exploitation, with the installed capacity of distributed wind power in Germany, for  
example, accounting for more than 85% of the total. In southern areas, onshore wind power is relatively  
concentrated in mountainous areas with better wind resources. Roughly 70% of onshore wind power in  
Spain, for example, is centralized. Offshore wind power development exploitation in Europe is mostly  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
050  
centralized. About 98% of operating offshore wind power generators in Europe are concentrated in the  
countries surrounding the North Sea, such as UK, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands and Belgium.  
Based on the resource characteristics and development conditions, it is recommended that both  
distributed and centralized modes can be adopted in the future exploitation of wind power in Europe.  
The coastal areas of the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, Baltic Sea, Greenland, and Barents Sea are prime  
candidates for large wind power bases.  
Wind power bases in the North Sea area are located around coastal areas in the east of the UK,  
southwest of Norway, western Denmark, northwest Germany, Netherlands and western Belgium, as  
shown in Figure 4-8. Wind power bases in the North Sea provide a technical potential installed  
capacity of 300 GW, with hydropower potential of 1260 TWh/year. The projected installed capacity is  
78 GW by 2035 and 133 GW by 2050.  
1-5: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
eastern UK  
6: Wind power base on the coast of Belgium  
7-8: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
Netherlands  
9-10: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
northwestern Germany  
11-12: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
western Denmark  
13-15: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
southern Norway  
13  
Figure 4-8 Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the North Sea  
Wind power bases in the Baltic Sea area are located on the coasts of eastern Denmark,  
southeastern Sweden, western Baltic States and northern Poland, as illustrated in Figure 4-9. The  
projected technical potential installed capacity and technical potential of wind power bases in the area  
are 163 GW and 571.2 TWh/year respectively. The projected installed capacity is 45 GW by 2035 and  
around 65.3 GW by 2050.  
Wind power bases in the Norwegian Sea area are located on the west coast of Norway, as  
indicated in Figure 4-10. The projected technical potential installed capacity of wind power bases in  
the Norwegian Sea area is 48 GW, and the technical potential stands at 168 TWh/year. The projected  
installed capacity is 5 GW by 2035 and around 16 GW by 2050.  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
051  
1-2: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
eastern Denmark  
3: Wind power base on the coast of Poland  
4: Wind power base on the coast of Lithuania  
5: Wind power base on the coast of Latvia  
6-8: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
Estonia  
9-10: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
Finland  
11-14: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
Sweden  
Figure 4-9 Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the Baltic Sea  
1-3: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
western Norway  
Figure 4-10 Illustration of Wind Power Bases in the Norwegian Sea  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
052  
Wind power bases in Greenland are located on the south coast of Iceland and the southeast  
coast of Greenland. The distribution of wind speed is illustrated in Figure 4-11. The technical potential  
installed capacity and technical potential of the area will amount to 30 GW and 150 TWh/year,  
respectively. The projected installed capacity of this area will be about 12 GW by 2035 and 14.3 GW  
by 2050.  
1-2: Wind power bases on the coasts of  
southeastern Greenland  
Figure 4-11 Illustration of Wind Power Bases in Greenland  
Wind power bases in the Barents Sea are located on the Barents Sea to the northwest of Russia,  
the technical potential installed capacity of the area is 80 GW, and the technical potential is 252  
TWh/year. The projected installed capacity is 12 GW by 2035 and 33.6 GW by 2050.  
The installation situation of wind power base in Europe is shown in Table 4-2.  
Table 4-2 Wind Power Bases in Europe  
Unit: GW  
Projected  
installed  
capacity by  
2035  
Projected  
installed  
capacity by  
2050  
Technical potential  
installed capacity  
No.  
Base name  
Location  
Country  
Wind power bases 1-5 on the  
coasts of eastern UK  
UK  
90  
12  
24  
Wind power base 6 on the coast  
of Belgium  
Belgium  
Netherlands  
1
North Sea  
78  
133  
Wind power bases 7-8 on the  
coasts of Netherlands  
4
Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources  
053  
continued  
Projected  
installed  
capacity by  
2035  
Projected  
installed  
capacity by  
2050  
Technical potential  
installed capacity  
No.  
1
Base name  
North Sea  
Location  
Country  
Wind power bases 11-12 on the  
coasts of western Denmark  
Denmark  
Norway  
Denmark  
Poland  
84  
54  
Wind power bases 13-15 on the  
coasts of southern Norway  
Wind power bases 1-2 on the  
coasts of eastern Denmark  
27  
Wind power base 3 on the coast  
of Poland  
18  
Wind power base 4 on the coast  
of Lithuania  
Lithuania  
Latvia  
10.8  
10.8  
28.8  
21  
Wind power base 5 on the coast  
of Latvia  
2
Baltic Sea  
45  
65.3  
Wind power bases 6-8 on the  
coasts of Estonia  
Estonia  
Finland  
Sweden  
Norway  
Wind power bases 9-10 on the  
coasts of Finland  
Wind power bases 11-14 on the  
coasts of Sweden  
46.8  
48  
Norwegian  
Sea  
Wind power bases 1-3 on the  
coasts of western Norway  
3
4
5
5
16  
Wind power bases 1-2 on the  
coasts of southeastern Greenland  
Denmark and  
Iceland  
Greenland  
30  
12  
14.3  
Wind power bases on the coasts  
of northern Norway and Russia  
Norway and  
Russia  
Barents Sea  
80  
12  
33.6  
4.2.3 Solar Power Exploitation  
Europe’s photovoltaic (PV) industry has made an early start. Germany, Italy, the UK, France and Spain  
are leading the photovoltaic industry. At present, Germany has the largest installed PV capacity,  
accounting for about 40% of Europe’s total. Spain is the world’s leader in concentrated solar power  
(CSP) generation technology and installed capacity. Europe’s solar power generation model is mainly  
distributed, and PV development focuses on building intergrated photovoltaic (BIPV). For instance,  
about 95% of the PV power capacity in Germany is distributed, and the BIPV energy output accounts  
for 87% of the total energy output. CSP stations in Spain are relatively concentrated in scale, giving it  
the characteristics of large capacity and availability of access to high voltage level system.  
According to the characteristics, distribution, development conditions and economy of solar energy  
resources in Europe, it is recommended that Europe follows the principle of “PV-based, CSP-assisted;  
distributed mode-based, centralized mode-assisted” to exploit the solar energy in Europe.  
Solar energy in Europe is mainly exploited through distributed BIPV. In view of the high cost  
of land and strict environmental protection requirements in Europe, consideration should be given to  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
054  
upgrading existing or new buildings. The utilization level of solar energy resources in Europe should  
be improved by vigorously developing flexible, small-scale and cost-effective modes of distributed  
exploitation, including industrial and commercial BIPV, and residential building rooftop PV with or  
without energy storage. It is projected that by 2050, the installed PV capacity in Europe will reach 650  
GW, of which the installed PV capacity of distributed BIPV will account for about 80%, by 2050, the  
installed PV capacity in Europe will reach 960 GW, of which the installed PV capacity of distributed  
BIPV will account for about 85%.  
A small number of centralized PV or CSP stations will be built in solar energy-rich regions  
in Southern Europe. In solar energy-rich regions such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Turkey,  
the economic feasibility of centralized solar energy exploitation is preferable, due to the generally high  
level of solar energy availability and the cost reduction caused by scale effect. It is recommended that  
advantage is taken of the low land values and the land for abandoned mining sites, factories, retired  
power plants and other large-scale abandoned public facilities in the region to build large-scale PV or  
CSP stations for centralized development of high-quality solar energy resources. It is projected that by  
2035, the installed CSP capacity in the above five countries will exceed 20 GW, and will reach 45 GW  
by 2050.  
5
Power Grid  
Interconnection  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
056  
5
Power Grid Interconnection  
According to the clean energy resource endowment and spatial distribution in Europe, and considering  
the energy and power development planning of the related countries, holistic efforts will be made to  
pursue coordinated development of clean energy and power grid, and accelerate power grid upgrade in  
all countries and regions. Based on Voltage Source Conventer Based High Voltage Direct Current  
(VSC-HVDC) and other advanced transmission technologies, power grid interconnection covering  
clean energy bases and load centers will be formed. This will enhance the resource allocation capability  
of power grids, support the large-scale development, long-distance transmission, and mutual supply and  
complementation of clean energy. This in further will ensure reliable power supply and meet the power  
demands of Europe on the course of sustainable economic and social development. And a wider range  
of energy and electricity trade will be achieved as well.  
5.1 Power Flow  
Taking the energy resources of Europe and the power supply balance into account, the emphasis of each  
region will be as follows:  
British Isles is rich in wind resources, mainly distributed in the North Sea and Ireland Sea  
coastal areas. The wind is suitable for large-scale centralized development. Located in the  
British  
middle of Greenland, Iceland, Norway and the Continental Europe, British Isles is equipped  
Isles  
with the conditions of gathering Arctic, North Sea wind power and Northern Europe  
hydropower to form a multi-energy mutual support platform.  
Northern Europe’s wind and hydro resources are abundant. Norway, Denmark (including  
Greenland), Sweden and other coastal and offshore areas are rich in wind resources. The  
most abundant areas of hydro resources in Northern Europe are distributed along both  
sides of the Scandinavian Mountains, which are mainly in Norway and Sweden.  
Hydropower and wind power will be vigorously developed in Northern Europe, and the  
power, after meeting with local demand, will be supplied to the Continental Europe.  
Northern  
Europe  
Western Europe is rich in wind and solar resources, which are important load centers. Wind  
energy is mainly distributed in the North Sea and the Atlantic coastal areas. Solar energy  
resources are concentrated in Spain, Portugal and other southern part of Western Europe.  
As the largest energy and power demand center in Europe, the decommissioning of coal,  
oil and nuclear power will gradually take place. It is necessary to accelerate the  
development of offshore wind power and solar energy in Spain and Portugal to meet the  
huge power demand in the region.  
Western  
Europe  
Southern Europe is rich in solar energy resources, mainly distributed in Italy and Greece. It  
will thus aggressively develop solar energy, complement various clean energy sources,  
and improve the efficiency of clean energy utilization.  
Southern  
Europe  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
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Eastern Europe is rich in solar, wind, and hydro resources. Wind resources are mainly  
concentrated in the Baltic Sea and the Aegean Sea. Solar energy resources are mainly  
concentrated in Turkey and Romania. Hydro resources are mainly concentrated in the  
Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Turkey. The development of wind power along the coast of  
Poland, solar and hydro resources in Turkey will be prioritized in future, to achieve mutual  
complementarity and support within the region.  
Eastern  
Europe  
Baltic States are rich in wind energy resources, which are mainly distributed in the coastal  
areas of the Baltic Sea. The offshore wind power will be developed vigorously to meet local  
demand, and then be sent to surrounding areas.  
Baltic  
States  
RBUM is rich in wind and hydro resources. Wind resources are mainly distributed in the  
Arctic region, the Caucasus in Southwestern Russia, and the Okhotsk Sea and Sakhalin Island  
in Eastern Russia. Hydropower resources are mainly distributed in the Volga River, Ob River,  
Yenisey River and Lena River basins in Russia. Efforts will be made in the development of  
wind power in Arctic and Caucasus regions, as well as hydropower in Siberia, and the  
power after meeting the local demands, will be transmitted to surrounding areas.  
RBUM  
In the future, Northern Europe and Baltic States will develop wind power and hydropower as two  
clean energy bases. After fulfilling local demands, the electricity can be transmitted to other regions in  
Europe. British Isles will basically self-sustained by exploiting offshore wind power and be a transfer  
center for clean energy by delivering electricity from Northern Europe to Western Europe. Western,  
Southern, and Eastern Europe will become major electricity import areas, receiving clean electricity  
from Northern Europe, Asia, and Africa, as shown in Figure 5-1.  
Figure 5-1 Illustration of Power Supply Balance for Each Country in Europe  
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058  
The bulk power flow of Europe will render such a pattern as “intracontinental power transmission  
from North to South and inter-continental power import from Africa and Asia”.  
In 2035, the inter-continental and inter-regional power transmission of Europe will reach 85 GW,  
including an inter-continental power flow of 39 GW and inter-regional power flow of 46 GW.  
For inter-continental: there will be 23 GW power from North Africa to Western Europe, Southern  
Europe, and Eastern Europe; 8 GW power from West Asia to Eastern Europe, and 8 GW from Central  
Asia to Western Europe.  
For inter-regional: there will be 33 GW power flow from Northern Europe to British Isles,  
Western Europe and Baltic States; 4 GW power flow from Baltic States to Eastern Europe, 8 GW from  
British Isles to Western Europe, and 1 GW from Eastern Europe to Southern Europe, as shown in Figure  
5-2.  
Figure 5-2 Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Flow  
in European Energy Interconnection by 2035  
In 2050, inter-continental and inter-regional power flow of Europe will reach 133 GW, including  
an inter-continental power flow of 75 GW and inter-regional power flow of 58 GW.  
For inter-continental: there will be 43 GW power from North Africa to Western Europe, Southern  
Europe and Eastern Europe; 16 GW power from West Asia to Eastern Europe; and 16 GW from Central  
Asia to Western Europe.  
For inter-regional: there will be 37 GW power from Northern Europe to British Isles, Western  
Europe, Baltic States and RBUM, 4 GW power flow from Baltic States to Eastern Europe, 16 GW from  
British Isles to Western Europe, and 1 GW from Eastern Europe to Southern Europe, as shown in  
Figure 5-3.  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
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Figure 5-3 Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Flow  
in European Energy Interconnection by 2050  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern  
Priorities of the future development of power grids: Firstly, reinforcing national grids across Europe  
enhances the capability of accommodating and dispatching clean energy, as well as the upgrading of  
smart grids to sustain the reliability of system with high penetration of clean energy. Secondly,  
strengthening cross-border power interconnection channels satisfies the outbound transmission of wind  
power bases in the North Sea, Baltic Sea and other 10 GW-level bases in the North Pole, taking the  
advantage of Northern Europe’s hydropower as a “power reservoir”, achieving the complementary of  
intracontinental clean energy resources. Thirdly, inter-continental power grid expansion will play a role  
in building Asia-Europe-Africa interconnection. Receiving clean energy from outside will diversify the  
energy supply of Europe.  
It is recommended to adopt more flexible and efficient transmission technology with higher  
voltage in order to exploit clean energy extensively, and facilitate the complementary of wind, solar and  
hydro power bases. Considering Europe will employ Ultra High Voltage Direct Current (UHVDC)  
transmission technology to deliver large scale electricity across continents over long distance, Europe  
will upgrade transmission grids by VSC-HVDC power grid technology within the continent and form  
DC grids covering Europe to enhance transmission flexibility. To avoid the barriers of overhead lines’  
construction, it is recommended to upgrade the existing lines, employ the submarine cable/underground  
cable as well as gas insulated line (GIL).  
By 2050, with the power grid upgrading and the ongoing expansion of interconnection, a new  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
060  
power grid pattern will emerge in Europe. To put it plainly, the pattern will take the DC grid of the  
continent as the core, while connecting with wind power bases in the North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian  
Sea and Barents Sea, hydropower bases in Northern Europe, and solar power bases in North Africa,  
West Asia and Central Asia, as illustrated in Figure 5-4.  
Figure 5-4 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection Pattern in Europe1  
A ±800 kV DC power grid covering British Isles, Northern Europe and Western Europe will be  
formed to integrate offshore wind power of the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and neighboring areas of  
Greenland as well as the hydropower of Northern Europe. A ±800/±660 kV DC power grid covering  
Baltic States, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe and Western Europe will be formed to integrate  
the offshore wind power of the Baltic Sea and Barents Sea. A ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid  
covering Western Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe will be built to import clean energy  
from the north and south and facilitate cross-border complementary. For inter-continental: ±800/±660  
kV DC transmission lines are built to receive clean power from North Africa and West Asia through the  
Iberian Peninsula, Apennine Peninsula and Balkan Peninsula across the Mediterranean, contributing to  
mutual complementary of northern wind power and southern solar power. ±800 kV DC transmission  
lines will import electricity from Central Asia, connecting Asia with Europe to make use of the time  
zone difference.  
The Europe DC power grid will begin to take shape in 2035. North Sea and Baltic Sea  
VSC-HVDC power grids will be constructed that integrates the offshore wind power by multiple  
large-capacity DC projects. The inter-continental interconnection will have six DC transmission lines to  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1All sites of stations and paths of transmission lines from figures in this report are schematic displays which do not strictly represent specific geographical  
locations.  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
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form the Asia-Europe-Africa interconnection pattern, as illustrated in Figure 5-5.  
Figure 5-5 Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Grid Interconnection by 2035  
On the basis of enhanced cross-border and inter-regional power grid interconnection, efforts will  
be made both within and beyond the region. Within Europe: several DC projects will be implemented  
that run across Norway−UK−France, Norway−Denmark−Germany, France−Germany, etc., to foster a  
looped DC grid that surrounds the North Sea. A three terminal DC project that connects Greenland,  
Iceland and UK will be built as well. DC projects connecting Finland−Latvia−Poland, Sweden−  
Denmark−Germany, and Poland−Germany, etc. will be pushed forward to build the Baltic Sea looped  
DC grid. A looped UHVDC grid will take shape in the center of the continent of Europe. As for  
inter-continental efforts: projects of DC channels connecting Morocco with Portugal, Algeria with  
France, Tunisia with Italy, Kazakhstan with Germany, Egypt with Turkey and Saudi Arabia with Turkey  
will be built to realize Asia−Europe−Africa interconnection.  
Flexible and controllable VSC-HVDC grids will take shape in Europe, by 2050. The region  
will extend DC grids to the North Pole and Eastern Europe, and scale up Asia−Europe−Africa power  
grid interconnection with up to eleven DC transmission lines, as shown in Figure 5-6.  
Within Europe: it will reinforce and extend DC grids surrounding the North Sea, Norwegian Sea,  
Baltic Sea and Barents Sea to the North Pole. Western, Southern and Eastern Europe will build  
±800/±660 kV DC meshed grids to receive wind power from the north and solar power from the south,  
thus achieving mutual support. For inter-continental: it will import electricity from North Africa and  
West Asia through three vertical DC channels. The DC channels in the west run across the Iberian  
Peninsula to deliver electricity to Portugal, Spain and southeast France. Central DC channels stretch  
across the Apennine Peninsula to deliver electricity to load centers in Italy, France and central Germany.  
Those in the east run through the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey to deliver electricity to Eastern Europe  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
062  
and some in Southern Europe. Two DC channels will be built to receive clean energy from Central Asia.  
Figure 5-6 Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Grid Interconnection by 2050  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection  
5.3.1 British Isles  
In 2017, the power consumption of British Isles was 353 TWh and the peak load was 68.53 GW with an  
installed capacity of 100 GW. The main load centers are located in the England and Welsh regions of  
the UK, where strong 400 kV AC grids have been formed. The 400 kV grid in the Scottish region is  
relatively weak and interconnected through two 400 kV transmission channels in the east and west. The  
Ireland island is dominated by 220 kV grid with single-circuit 400 kV transmission channel built in the  
middle and connected to the British island through 3 DC projects. The British island is connected to the  
power grid of Western Europe through 2 DC projects.  
In the future, British Isles will prioritize the development of wind power in the west North Sea and  
Ireland Sea, step up efforts on the construction of wind power transmission channels and transmission  
channels connecting Ireland with British island, southern and northern of the UK, and coastal areas of  
the North Sea. British Isles will play as the power exchange hub that receives Northern Europe’s power  
and delivers to Continental Europe, and eventually realize the widespread consumption and mutual  
support of clean energy.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 551.2 TWh and a peak load will be  
110 GW with an installed capacity of 210 GW.  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
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Within the region: the UK will step up efforts to build south-north 400 kV transmission channels  
and 400 kV grids near central-south load centers to improve transmission capacity. Ireland should  
consolidate 400 kV grids and interconnect with British island through DC submarine cables to enhance  
the mutual support capacity. For inter-regional: Greenland−Iceland−UK and Norway−UK−France  
±800 kV DC transmission projects will be built to receive power and deliver the surplus power to  
Western Europe.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 698.3 TWh and a peak load will be  
140 GW with an installed capacity of 290 GW.  
Within the region: the UK will further strengthen the north-south transmission channel to form  
“two vertical and one horizontal” ±800 kV DC grids, and strengthen the domestic 400 kV transmission  
channel to the northern coastal areas of Scotland. The north-south interconnection channels between  
Ireland and Northern Ireland will be further enhanced to form 400 kV grids covering the Ireland island.  
Ireland island and British island will be interconnected through 2 DC lines via offshore wind power  
integration points. It will improve the interconnection level and wind power accommodating capacity.  
For inter-regional: UK−France ±800 kV DC Project will be built. The power grid interconnection of  
British Isles in 2050 is presented in Figure 5-7.  
Figure 5-7 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of British Isles by 2050  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
064  
5.3.2 Northern Europe  
In 2017, the power consumption of Northern Europe was 411.8 TWh and the peak load was 72.08 GW,  
with an installed capacity of 110 GW. Norway and Sweden are the load centers and their power  
consumption accounts for more than 60% in the region. A 400 kV grid now operates in the region,  
giving rise to a vertical multi-circuit transmission channels on both sides of the Scandinavian  
Mountains. The region is interconnected with the continent of Europe through multiple DC submarine  
cables.  
In the future, the region will lay greater emphasis on wind power in the coastal areas of the North  
Sea, Norwegian Sea and Baltic Sea, and the southeastern coast of Greenland. Working together with the  
hydropower groups on both sides of the Scandinavian Mountains, they will increase level of clean  
power supply of relevant countries. At the same time, enhancing the interconnection channels with  
British Isles, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and RBUM will deliver portfolios of hydropower and  
wind power and realize cross-border and inter-regional mutual support.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 497.9 TWh and a peak load will be  
90 GW with an installed capacity of 260 GW.  
Within the region: the vertical 400 kV transmission channels in Norway and Sweden along both  
sides of the Scandinavian mountains will be strengthened to improve the capacity of hydropower  
integration and delivery. The 400 kV AC grids in Norway, Sweden and southern Finland will be  
strengthened, cover the main load centers and improve the power supply capacity. The 400 kV  
interconnection between Norway and Sweden will be enhanced. Sweden−Finland ±660 kV DC lines  
will also improve the cross-border power exchange capacity. For inter-regional: Norway−Denmark−  
Germany, and Sweden−Denmark−Germany ±800 kV DC Projects will send power to northern Germany.  
Norway−UK ±800 kV DC Project will send power to the UK. Greenland−Iceland−UK ±800 kV DC  
Project will send wind power and hydropower of Greenland and Iceland to Northern UK.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 578.9 TWh and a peak load will be  
102 GW with an installed capacity of 320 GW.  
Within the region: the transmission channels of wind power base in the east of North Sea,  
northwest of Baltic Sea, and Barents Sea will be further strengthened; and a number of offshore wind  
power DC integration will be constructed. The vertical transmission channels will be extended to  
Norway and Northern Sweden while strengthening the horizontal 400 kV interconnection between  
Norway and Sweden. Two ±800 kV DC projects will interconnect Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea with  
Northern Sweden, and one ±660 kV DC lines will interconnect Barents Sea with Northern Finland. And  
they will extend south to load centers in Sweden and Finland. One more ±800 kV DC project will be  
built to enhance the interconnection between Sweden and Finland. For inter-regional: Finland−  
Ukraine ±660 kV DC Project will be built. The power grid interconnection of Northern Europe in 2050  
is presented in Figure 5-8.  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
065  
Figure 5-8 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Northern Europe by 2050  
5.3.3 Western Europe  
In 2017, the power consumption of Western Europe was 1700 TWh and the peak load was 280 GW  
with an installed capacity of 560 GW. France and Germany are major load centers. The voltage of  
Western Europe’s grids is 400 (380) kV with close cross-border ties. France, Germany and Spain have  
established a looped structure surrounding their load centers. It engages in inter-regional  
interconnection with the UK through two DC lines, and reaches out to Northern Europe through  
multiple DC lines. In the meantime, it is interconnected with Eastern Europe through multiple AC lines  
and interconnected with Morocco in North Africa through double-circuit 400 kV lines.  
In the future, Western Europe will focus on the development of wind power of North Sea in  
Germany, Netherlands, Belgium; solar energy of Southern Spain; and wind power on the Mediterranean  
coast of France. It will build a strong, flexible and controllable VSC-HVDC power grid that connects  
regional clean energy bases with load centers, to consolidate regional power exchange ability. The 400  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
066  
(380) kV AC grids of each country will be strengthened to boost the reliability of power supply. In the  
meantime, Western Europe will work on inter-continental and inter-regional transmission channels to  
facilitate transmission of wind power and hydropower from Northern Europe, and solar energy from  
North Africa and Central Asia, to achieve mutual support between different energy sources and efficient  
utilization.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 2400 TWh and a peak load will be  
405 GW with an installed capacity of 1000 GW.  
Within Western Europe: Germany will build Berlin−Munich ±800 kV DC channel in the east  
and Hamburg−Nuremberg 380 kV AC channel in the middle of the country to boost south to north  
mutual support. France will enhance the south to north transmission channel and the chained 400 kV  
transmission channel along the coastal areas to receive coastal wind power and import power. Spain  
will further enhance the 400 kV looped grid in Madrid and the integration and transmission channels of  
south solar energy. 400 kV looped grids will be built in Switzerland and Austria. With regard to  
cross-border efforts, a ±800 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid that covers France, Germany, Switzerland and  
Netherlands will be built to import power and boost cross-border mutual power support. For  
inter-regional: Poland−Germany DC lines will be built to increase the power exchange between  
Eastern Europe and Western Europe. Norway−UK−France and Norway−Denmark−Germany ±800 kV  
DC Projects will be built to receive power from Northern Europe. Algeria−France, Morocco−Portugal,  
and Kazakhstan−Germany ±800 kV DC projects will be constructed to import power from North Africa  
and Central Asia as well.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 2900 TWh and a peak load will be  
490 GW with an installed capacity of 1250 GW.  
Within the region: Germany will further strengthen the north-south transmission channel and  
build Bremen−Frankfurt ±800 kV DC Project while strengthening the AC grids and DC dispersed  
channels within its territory. France will focus on strengthening the eastern 400 kV AC grids to enhance  
power supply. Madrid will form double 400 kV looped grid to strengthen the AC/DC interconnection  
channel with Portugal. With regard to cross-border efforts, Europe will form ±800/±660 kV  
VSC-HVDC trapezoidal grid covering Western Europe. Germany−Netherlands−France−Portugal west  
DC channel will mainly receive wind power of North Sea and hydropower of Northern Europe.  
Germany−Switzerland−France−Spain east DC channel will receive hydropower of Northern Europe,  
wind power of Baltic Sea and power from Central Asian. There will be 5 DC interconnection between  
the east and west DC channels. The cross-border power exchange capacity will be greatly improved to  
boost mutual support between wind power, hydropower and solar power in the region. For  
inter-regional: there will be 3 DC lines to be constructed to interconnect Western Europe and Southern  
Europe, forming DC power grid of Continental Europe. Algeria−France−Germany ±800 kV three-  
terminal DC project and Kazakhstan−Germany ±800 kV DC project will also be built. The power grid  
interconnection of Western Europe in 2050 is presented in Figure 5-9.  
5.3.4 Southern Europe  
In 2017, the power consumption of Southern Europe was 474.3 TWh and the peak load was 84.86 GW with  
an installed capacity of 180 GW. Italy is the main load center in the region. Apennine Peninsula of Italy  
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Power Grid Interconnection  
067  
has developed east and west 400 kV transmission channels stretch across coastal lines. The power grids  
in the north and central load centers are strong. The 400 kV power grid of Balkan Peninsula is less  
developed and interconnected to Western Europe and Eastern Europe through multiple 400 kV lines.  
Figure 5-9 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Western Europe by 2050  
In the future, Southern Europe will vigorously develop solar energy bases in the south and wind  
power along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea and Aegean Sea. By reinforcing the vertical transmission  
channels of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula and interconnection between both sides of the Adriatic Sea,  
the south to north transmission capacity will be enhanced and receive power from North Africa.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 652.1 TWh and a peak load will be  
110 GW with an installed capacity of 320 GW.  
Within the region: The 400 kV vertical transmission channel in the west Apennine Peninsula of  
Italy will be enhanced to facilitate south to north power supply. It will aim to strengthen the power grid  
interconnection between the Apennine Peninsula, Sardinia and Sicily to increase the power supply  
reliability of the islands. The 400 kV AC grids will be strengthened in Balkan countries. A ±500 kV DC  
transmission project connecting Montenegro with Italy will be built, so as to boost the power exchange  
ability across the Adriatic Sea. For inter-regional: Romania−Serbia ±660 kV DC lines will be built to  
interconnect with Eastern Europe. Italy−Switzerland ±800 kV DC Project will be built to interconnect  
with Western Europe. The three-terminal Tunis, Tunisia−Rome, Italy−Milan, Italy ±800 kV DC project  
will be built to import power from North Africa as well.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 769 TWh and a peak load will be  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
068  
130 GW with an installed capacity of 370 GW.  
Within the region: Greece−Italy and Greece−Serbia ±800 kV DC projects will be built to enhance  
the power exchange ability across the Adriatic Sea. The 400 kV vertical transmission channels of east  
Apennine Peninsula and west Balkan Peninsula will be strengthened to satisfy the power supply. For  
inter-regional: Serbia−Germany ±660 kV DC project and Italy−France ±800 kV DC project will be  
built to interconnect with Western Europe. Egypt−Greece ±800 kV DC project will be constructed to  
import power from North Africa as well.  
The power grid interconnection of Southern Europe in 2050 is presented in Figure 5-10.  
Figure 5-10 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Southern Europe by 2050  
5.3.5 Eastern Europe  
In 2017, the power consumption of Eastern Europe was 686.6 TWh and the peak load was 110 GW with  
an installed capacity of 200 GW. Turkey and Poland are the main load centers. The 400 kV AC grids of  
each country are closely interconnected in the region. There are multiple 400 kV AC lines  
interconnected with Western Europe and Southern Europe. It is also interconnected with Northern  
Europe and Baltic States through DC (including back to back DC) projects.  
In the future, Eastern Europe will develop wind power of Baltic Sea and solar energy and  
hydropower in Turkey. It will strengthen 400 kV grids of countries within the region, enhance the power  
transmission capacity of south-north channels. It will enhance the inter-regional interconnection with  
Western Europe and Eastern Europe, and the inter-continental interconnection channels as well.  
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In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 1000 TWh and a peak load will be  
170 GW with an installed capacity of 410 GW.  
Within the region: 400 kV grids and 400 kV cross-border interconnection channels will be enhanced.  
Bulgaria−Romania ±660 kV DC project will be built to enhance cross-border transmission capacity.  
For inter-regional: Latvia−Poland−Germany ±660 kV DC project will be constructed to interconnect  
with Baltic States and Western Europe. Romania−Serbia ±660 kV DC project will be constructed to  
receive power of Eastern Europe. Egypt−Turkey ±660 kV DC project will be built to receive power  
from North Africa. Saudi Arabia−Turkey−Bulgaria ±800 kV DC project will be constructed to receive  
power of West Asia.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 1400 TWh and a peak load will be  
230 GW with an installed capacity of 610 GW.  
Within the region: Poland−Hungary−Romania ±660 kV DC project will form the vertical  
transmission channel across Eastern Europe to further increase the transmission capacity from south to  
north. For inter-regional: Saudi Arabia−Turkey ±800 kV DC Project will be constructed to receive  
power from West Asia. The power grid interconnection of Eastern Europe in 2050 is presented in Figure  
5-11.  
Figure 5-11 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Eastern Europe by 2050  
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5.3.6 Baltic States  
In 2017, the power consumption of Baltic States was 27.5 TWh and the peak load was 4.6 GW with an  
installed capacity of 9.27 GW. The load is evenly distributed across the region. The voltage level of the  
grid in Baltic States is 330 kV. With regard to interconnection with surrounding regions, it has achieved  
interconnection with Northern Europe and Eastern Europe through DC (including back to back DC)  
lines. It is connected with Russia and Belarus by AC lines.  
In the future, Baltic States will develop the offshore wind power base and strengthen 330 kV grids  
and inter-regional interconnection channels. After satisfying local power demand, the surplus power  
will be sent to Eastern Europe.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 41 TWh and a peak load will be 7.24  
GW with an installed capacity of 23.22 GW.  
Within the region: the coastal wind power integration channel along Baltic Sea will be built. The  
330 kV grids and cross-border interconnection channels will be boosted to improve the transmission  
capacity. For inter-regional: Finland−Latvia−Poland ±660 kV DC Project will integrate offshore wind  
power and send power to Eastern Europe.  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 50.6 TWh and a peak load will be  
8.77 GW with an installed capacity of 27.33 GW.  
Within the region: The 330 kV grids in the region will be further strengthened. Meanwhile,  
efforts will be spent on the wind power base of the Baltic Sea to foster an offshore DC interconnection  
channel. For inter-regional: power exchange capacity between the region and Eastern Europe will be  
further reinforced. The power grid interconnection of Baltic States in 2050 is presented in Figure 5-12.  
5.3.7 RBUM  
In 2017, the power consumption of RBUM reached 1200 TWh and the peak load was 180 GW with an  
installed capacity of 300 GW. Russia is the load center of this region. Western Russia, Belarus and  
Ukraine have formed 750 kV AC interconnection. The main voltage levels of power grid in Russia are  
500 kV and 330 kV.  
In the future, priority will be given to the establishment of large wind power bases in the north of  
Russia, Caucasus and the Far East. The region will also build large hydropower bases in Ural, Siberia  
and the Far East in Russia. The AC power grids of each country will be enhanced to satisfy local power  
demand and send the surplus power to East Asia.  
In 2035, the power consumption of the region will amount to 1500 TWh and a peak load will be  
260 GW with an installed capacity of 650 GW.  
Within the region: Russia will form a 1000 kV UHV AC looped grid in west to interconnect the  
wind power in west-north Russia, hydropower of Volga in south and central load centers. The  
hydropower resources of the Yenisei River will be exploited gradually. A 1000 kV AC channel in east  
will be built to interconnect Siberia and the Far East. The 750/500 kV AC grid in Russia, Ukraine and  
Belarus will be strengthened, and the transmission capacity of 330 kV and below voltage level power  
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grids will be enhanced in every country. For inter-regional: Russia will construct the transmission  
channel in the Far East.  
Figure 5-12 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Baltic States by 2050  
In 2050, the power consumption of the region will amount to 1800 TWh and a peak load will be  
330 GW with an installed capacity of 960 GW.  
Within the region: 1000 kV AC interconnection between Ural and Siberia will be strengthened.  
There are three ±800 kV DC transmission projects that two extend from the Barents Sea wind bases to  
St. Petersburg and Veshkayma and one from Yenisey River to Moscow will be built. Countries in the  
region will further enhance the 750/500/330 kV AC grids. For inter-regional: the Finland−Ukraine  
±660 kV DC project will be built to receive wind power from the Baltic sea. And further enhance the  
Far East transmission channel of Russia. The power grid interconnection of RBUM in 2050 is presented  
in Figure 5-13.  
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Figure 5-13 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of RBUM by 2050  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects  
5.4.1 Key Inter-Continental Projects  
1 Africa-Europe Interconnection Projects  
Tangier, Morocco−Faro, Portugal ±500 kV DC project will send solar power of Morocco solar  
power bases to Portugal with a capacity of 3 GW and a length of 260 km (of which 200 km is  
submarine cable). This project is intended to be constructed by 2035. According to preliminary analysis,  
the total investment of this project is 1.2 billion USD, the transmission tariff is about 1.65 US cents/kWh.1  
Laghout, Algeria−Toulouse, France ±800 kV DC project will send Algeria solar power to  
France with a capacity of 8 GW and a length of 1400 km (of which 750 km is submarine cable). This  
project is intended to be constructed by 2035. According to preliminary analysis, the total investment of  
this project is 7.4 billion USD, the transmission tariff is about 2.63 US cents/kWh.  
Tunis, Tunisia−Rome, Italy ±800 kV DC project will send solar power from Remada base to  
Italy with a capacity of 8 GW and a length of 1300 km (of which 200 km is submarine cable). This  
project is also intended to be constructed by 2035. According to preliminary analysis, the total  
investment of this project is 4.3 billion USD, the transmission tariff is about 1.53 US cents/kWh.  
Zayed, Egypt−Adana, Turkey ±660 kV DC project will send solar power collected from  
southern Egypt to Turkey with a capacity of 4 GW and a length of 1100 km (of which 800 km is  
submarine cable). This project is also intended to be constructed by 2035. According to preliminary  
analysis, the total investment of this project is 4.2 billion USD, the transmission tariff is about 2.95 US  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1The main parameters in calculation of transmission tariff in this report are: 30 years of operation period, 18 years of loan period, 20% of capital ratio, 4.9% of  
loan interest rate, 5% of VAT rate, 10% of investment return rate, and operating cost accounted for 2.5% of total investment.  
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cents/kWh.  
Zag, Morocco−Madrid, Spain ±660 kV DC project will send solar power from Morocco  
combined with hydropower from central Africa to Spain with a capacity of 4 GW and a length of 1800  
km (of which 30 km is submarine cable). This project is intended to be constructed by 2050. According  
to preliminary analysis, the total investment of this project is 2 billion USD, the transmission tariff is  
about 1.23 US cents/kWh.  
Ouargla, Algeria−Lyon, France−Frankfurt, Germany ±800 kV DC project will send solar  
power from Ouargla base to France and Germany with a capacity of 4 GW, respectively. The length is  
2400 km (of which 840 km is submarine cable). This project is planned to be constructed by 2050.  
According to preliminary analysis, the total investment of this project is 8.4 billion USD, the  
transmission tariff is about 2.58 US cents/kWh.  
Matrouh, Egypt−Athens, Greece−Lecce, Italy ±800 kV DC project will send solar and wind  
power from Egypt to Italy and Greece. The total transmission capacity is 8 GW, of which 4 GW is  
consumed in Greece, Albania and Bulgaria and the rest is consumed in southern Italy. The length is  
1700 km (of which 960 km is submarine cable). This project is also intended to be constructed by 2050.  
According to preliminary analysis, the total investment of this project is 8.4 billion USD, the  
transmission tariff is about 3.01 US cents/kWh.  
The Africa-Europe interconnection projects are shown in Figure 5-14.  
Figure 5-14 Illustration of Africa-Europe Interconnection Projects  
2 Asia-Europe Interconnection Projects  
Aktobe, Kazakhstan−Munich, Germany ±800 kV DC transmission project, designed to allocate  
wind and solar power from Kazakhstan to Germany in Europe through a proposed ±800 kV DC line  
with a transmission capacity of 8 GW, and a length of 3500 km. This project is intended to be  
completed by 2035. The total project investment is approximately 6.2 billion USD, with transmission  
cost of about 2.36 US cents/kWh.  
Kostanay, Kazakhstan−Nuremberg, Germany ±800 kV DC transmission project, designed to  
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allocate wind and solar power from Kazakhstan to Germany in Europe through a proposed ±800 kV DC  
line with a transmission capacity of 8 GW, and a length of 3900 km. This project is intended to be  
completed by 2050. The total project investment is approximately 6.7 billion USD, with transmission  
cost of about US 2.58 cents/kWh.  
Al Qassim, Saudi Arabia−Istanbul, Turkey−Haskovo, Bulgaria ±800 kV DC transmission  
project. This project is designed to allocate solar power from Saudi Arabia to Europe through a  
proposed ±800 kV DC line with a transmission capacity of 8 GW, and a length of 2800 km. This project  
is intended to be completed by 2035. The total project investment is approximately 5.3 billion USD,  
with transmission cost of about 1.98 US cents/kWh.  
Ha’il, Saudi Arabia−Ankara, Turkey ±800 kV DC transmission project. It is designed to  
allocate solar power from Saudi Arabia to Turkey through a proposed ±800 kV DC line with a  
transmission capacity of 8 GW, and a length of 2200 km. This project is intended to be completed by  
2050. The total project investment is approximately 4.7 billion USD, with transmission cost of about  
1.73 US cents/kWh.  
The Asia-Europe interconnection projects are shown in Figure 5-15.  
Figure 5-15 Illustration of Asia-Europe Interconnection Projects  
5.4.2 Key Inter-Regional Projects  
1 North Sea ±800 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project  
The project will be used to integrate the wind power of the North Sea to enhance the power  
transmission capacity of Norway, the UK and the continent of Europe. As Figure 5-16 presents, a ±800  
kV VSC-HVDC looped grid that starts from Norway and leads to the UK, France, Germany, Denmark  
and eventually comes back to Norway will be fostered, alongside seven new ±800 kV converter stations  
with a capacity of 40 GW. Stretching for 3400 km, the ±800 kV DC transmission project is expected to  
be completed by 2035, with a total investment of 16 billion USD.  
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Figure 5-16 Illustration of North Sea ±800 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project  
2 The Baltic Sea ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project  
This project will integrate the wind power of the Baltic Sea to enhance the power transmission capacity  
from Northern Europe and the Baltic States to the continent of Europe. As Figure 5-17 illustrates, a  
±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid that starts from Sweden and runs across Finland, Latvia,  
Poland, Germany, Denmark and returns to Sweden will be built. Three new ±800 kV converter stations  
with 16 GW capacity and three ±660 kV converter stations with 8 GW capacity will be set up. This is  
expected to be completed by 2035, the ±800 kV DC project runs a length of 1320 km and the ±660 kV  
project extends for 1930 km, with a total investment of 10.2 billion USD.  
3 Greenland−Iceland−UK ±800 kV DC Project  
The project aims to integrate the hydropower and wind power of Greenland and the offshore wind  
power of Iceland to realize mutual support with the continent of Europe through the UK. As Figure 5-18  
shows, it will build a three-terminal ±800 kV VSC-HVDC project with a transmission capacity of 8 GW.  
The total length is 2400 km with 2200 km submarine cable. The project is expected to be delivered by  
2035, with a total investment of 17.3 billion USD.  
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Figure 5-17 Illustration of the Baltic Sea ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC Looped Grid Project  
Figure 5-18 Illustration of Greenland−Iceland−UK ±800 kV DC Project  
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5.5 Investment Estimation  
5.5.1 Investment Estimation Principles  
Investment in the European Energy Interconnection consists of power sources investment and power  
grids investment. Power sources investment is estimated according to the unit investment cost and  
capacity put into operation of each projected year, while that in power grids is calculated according to  
the investment cost of each voltage level.  
With regard to investment in power sources, the unit investment cost of each power source in 2035  
and 2050 will be estimated keeping track of the development trend of various power source  
technologies. And also based on research results of international energy institutions, including the  
International Energy Agency (IEA) and Bloomberg NEF. The estimation shows that, by 2050, the unit  
investment cost of solar energy and wind power will decline by 56%−58% and 47%−52% respectively  
over 2019. The forecast of the unit investment cost of various power sources is shown in Table 5-1.  
Table 5-1 Forecast of Investment Cost per Capacity of Various Power Sources  
Unit: USD/kW  
Power source  
Thermal  
2035  
2050  
3400  
3500  
Hydro  
2100  
2100  
PV  
610 (Power base:490)  
380 (Power base:310)  
CSP  
4160  
3390  
Onshore wind  
Offshore wind  
Nuclear  
1110 (Power base:890)  
910 (Power base:730)  
1520  
4800  
1300  
4000  
With regard to investment in power grids, estimations of DC grid cost take the operating projects  
of same kind as reference, and modification is made in combination with similar project cost in Europe  
and surrounding countries. Estimations of 400 kV and 220 kV power grids are made according to  
similar projects in Europe. Investment estimation parameters for power grid at each voltage level are  
shown in Table 5-2.  
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Table 5-2 Investment Estimation Parameters for Power Grid by Voltage Level  
Submarine cable1  
thousand USD /km  
Substation/converter station  
USD/kVA (kW)  
Route  
thousand USD /km  
Project category  
1000 kV AC  
765 kV AC  
500 kV AC  
400 kV AC  
±500 kV DC  
±660 kV DC  
±800 kV DC  
67  
41  
830  
530  
340  
440  
570  
780  
1350  
—
—
39  
—
50  
—
177  
179  
188  
2500  
3000  
4400  
5.5.2 Investment Estimation Results  
By 2050, the total investment of European Energy Interconnection is estimated at 4.9 trillion USD. 3.8  
trillion USD will be invested in power sources and 1.1 trillion USD will be invested in power grids  
construction, accounted for 77% and 23% respectively. The annual investment structure of the  
European Energy Interconnection levels is shown in Figure 5-19.  
Figure 5-19 Investment Scale and Structure of European Energy Interconnection  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1The data in the table is applicable to shallow sea areas with a water depth of less than 100 m. According to the investigation, for the submarine cable project  
with a depth of 100−200 m, a rough estimate of the cost needs to rise about 25%, and for the submarine cable project above 200 m, the cost needs to rise further  
by about 30%.  
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The investment of European Energy Interconnection will be about 3.1 trillion  
USD. About 2.5 trillion USD will be invested in power sources, accounting for  
80%, of which distributed power investment will be about 1.2 trillion USD,  
accounting for 50% of power investment. The power grid investment will be  
about 0.65 trillion USD, accounting for 20%, of which UHV grid cost is about 80  
billion USD, power grid of 330 kV and above cost is about 200 billion USD, and  
power grid of 220 kV and below cost is about 370 billion USD.  
From 2019 to 2035  
The investment of European Energy Interconnection will be about 1.8 trillion  
USD. About 1.3 trillion USD will be invested in power sources, accounting for  
72%, of which distributed power investment will be about 590 billion USD,  
accounting for 46% of power investment. The power grid has attracted an  
investment of about 490 billion USD, accounting for 28%, including about 70  
billion USD in UHV grid cost, power grid of 330 kV and above cost is about 150  
billion USD, and power grid of 220 kV and below cost is about 270 billion USD.  
From 2036 to 2050  
From 2019 to 2050, the scale and structure of power sources and power grids investment in Europe  
are shown in Figure 5-20, Figure 5-21.  
Figure 5-20 Investment Scale and Structure of Power Sources by Region from 2019 to 2050  
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Figure 5-21 Investment Scale and Structure of Power Grids by Region by 2050  
6
Comprehensive  
Benefits  
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6
Comprehensive Benefits  
European Energy Interconnection is an important carrier for accelerating the regional clean  
development, achieving economic development and prosperity, social fairness and efficient, clean and  
beautiful environment, and deepening regional cooperation. It plays as the belt and bridge for  
promoting the economic, social and environmental sustainable development of Europe, and has huge  
comprehensive values. Based on the energy outlook of European Energy Interconnection, and taking  
into account factors such as production, consumption, investment, and international trade, the  
comprehensive benefit evaluation model (as shown in Appendix 1) is used to systematically analyze the  
role of European Energy Interconnection in promoting economic and social development. Considering  
the impacts of energy production, transmission, processing conversion, and final utilization on climate  
change and ecological environment, the environmental benefits of European Energy Interconnection  
will be assessed. Focusing on promoting mutual trust, coordinated development, and integration level,  
the political benefits of European Energy Interconnection will be studied.  
6.1 Economic Benefits  
1 Boosting economic growth by investment, and promoting industrial development.  
The renewal and investment of power infrastructure brought by the development of clean energy will  
become the important means to stimulate the economic growth. With an accumulative investment of  
about 4.9 trillion USD by 2050, European Energy Interconnection will contribute an average of 1.9% to  
economic growth. The construction of the European Energy Interconnection will give a strong impetus  
to the development of new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, intelligent manufacturing,  
electric vehicles, new energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection, information  
and communication and other emerging industries. With the improvement of energy efficiency, the  
development and utilization of clean energy, and the construction, operation and maintenance of  
regional Energy Interconnection will promote the transition and upgrading of European energy and  
other related industries, and inject vitality into economic growth.  
2 Promoting the development of resources and enhancing the reliability of energy supplies.  
The construction of the European Energy Interconnection and the large-scale and orderly development  
of hydropower in Scandinavia, wind energy in the North Sea and solar energy in southern Europe will  
not only improve the energy consumption structure, but also accelerate the diversified development of  
clean energy in Europe. It will also promote clean development in Europe and ensure a clean, efficient  
and sustainable supply of energy. The dependency on foreign energy will be continuously decreased and  
the energy efficiency will be gradually increased. Energy consumption intensity of the EU will decrease  
by 57%.  
3
Increasing the generating capacity of clean energy, and achieving green and clean  
development.  
The large-scale development and efficient utilization of clean energy will be accelerated. The  
centralized development of large-scale clean energy bases will be integrated with distributed  
development to meet the energy and power demand for economic and social development in Europe in  
a clean and green manner, thus getting rid of the dependence on fossil energy, and recognizing clean  
and sustainable energy supply. In 2050, the share of clean energy in primary energy demand will be  
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083  
78% in Europe, and the proportion of clean energy power generation will be 91%, leading the world in  
clean development.  
4 Increasing intra-continental trade in energy and electricity, and bolstering green finance  
development.  
Through power interconnection, Europe’s energy and power market will be built, multi-channel energy  
and power import and export will be accomplished, the self-sufficiency rate of Europe’s electricity will  
be increased, Europe’s electricity supply and energy security will be guaranteed, and Europe’s  
economic integration will be promoted. The electricity−carbon trading encourages the development of  
green finance and expands cross-border electricity trading, which is estimated over 7000 TWh by 2050.  
The integration of electricity and carbon markets will increase government revenue.  
6.2 Social Benefits  
1 Creating jobs.  
The construction of the European Energy Interconnection involves many fields such as energy  
development, infrastructure construction, electrical equipment, Electricity Replacement, intelligent  
technology, new materials, information and communication, which can significantly promote  
employment. It is expected that the construction of the European Energy Interconnection will  
comprehensively promote the development of various industries and create about 27 million jobs by  
2050.  
2 Reducing energy supply costs.  
The large-scale development and utilization of clean energy as well as the optimal allocation of clean  
energy will effectively reduce the cost of energy supply. It is predicted that in 2050, the average cost of  
power generation in Europe will be reduced by about 40% compared with the current level, and the  
benefits will be very significant.  
3 Improving the electrification level.  
By constructing the European Energy Interconnection and accelerating the formation of  
electricity-centered energy consumption structure, the electricity in Europe will overtake oil as the  
largest final energy in Europe by 2030. It will account for 59% of the final energy by 2050, exceeding  
the global average.  
6.3 Environmental Benefits  
1 Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.  
Utilization of fossil energy is the main source of CO2 emissions, accounting for about 85% of total CO2  
emissions. The key to addressing climate change in Europe is to accelerate clean energy exploitation,  
and improve the level of clean development and electrification. Building European Energy  
Interconnection will accelerate the efficient and large-scale development and utilization of clean energy  
through power grid interconnection, and realize optimal allocation and rapid development of clean  
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energy. With the Clean Replacement to control greenhouse gas emissions from the source, and the  
Electricity Replacement to promote emission reduction of final energy sectors, the issue of global  
warming can be controlled. CO2 emissions from the energy system will drop to about 2.7 Gt CO2/yr in  
2035, 48% less than that in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario1, and further to about 1.1 Gt CO2/yr  
in 2050, 82% lower than that in the BAU scenario. Figure 6-1 shows the mitigation benefits from  
European Energy Interconnection.  
Figure 6-1 Mitigation Benefits from European Energy Interconnection  
2 Reducing climate-related disasters.  
Climate disasters such as droughts, floods and hurricanes are natural disasters caused by climate change.  
Extreme weathers have been increasing recently in Europe due to climate change. Building European  
Energy Interconnection will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the source, and effectively lower the  
probability of extreme weather and disasters. Advanced transmission and smart grid technologies can be  
utilized to improve the disaster prevention capability and climate resilience of energy and power  
infrastructure, and reduce economic losses and mortalities caused by climate disasters.  
3 Reducing air pollutant emissions.  
Sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particles are the three major air pollutants in the  
world, and fossil energy consumption is a major cause of air pollution. In European Energy  
Interconnection, the Clean Replacement promotes large-scale development and utilization of clean  
energy, and reduces air pollutant emissions directly from the production, utilization and conversion of  
fossil energy in a clean, economical and efficient way. The Electricity Replacement promotes the  
replacement of coal, oil, and natural gas used by industry, transport and building sectors with clean  
electricity, to reduce pollutant emissions. It is necessary to further explore the potential for emission  
reduction and thus achieve coordinated upgrading of final energy consumption and governance of air  
pollution.  
By 2035, the European Energy Interconnection Scenario can reduce 4.2 million tonnes of SO2, 8.2  
million tonnes of NOx and 1 million tonnes of fine particulate matter per year compared with the BAU  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1The BAU scenario developed by the Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a development path for economy, energy, power  
and emissions in a country continuing existing policies.  
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085  
scenario. Figure 6-2 shows air pollutant mitigation benefits from the European Energy Interconnection  
in 2035.  
Figure 6-2 Air Pollutant Mitigation Benefits from the European Energy Interconnection in 2035  
By 2050, the European Energy Interconnection Scenario can reduce 6.8 million tonnes of sulphur  
dioxide, 15.5 million tonnes of nitrogen oxides and 1.5 million tonnes of fine particles per year  
compared with the BAU scenario. Figure 6-3 shows air pollutant mitigation benefits from the European  
Energy Interconnection in 2050.  
Figure 6-3 Air Pollutant Mitigation Benefits from the European Energy Interconnection in 2050  
4 Increasing the value of land resources.  
Increasing the value of land resources mainly refers to the overall development of clean energy on  
deserted land and other unutilized land; improving the economic value of land; saving the occupation of  
high-value land; and achieving a combination of socio-economic development and environmental  
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protection. By building European Energy Interconnection and developing wind and solar power in  
barren land with abundant clean energy resources, surface roughness and vegetation coverage can be  
increased. Regional precipitation can be raised and soil water evaporation can be effectively reduced  
which will thereby promote the restoration of deserted land. Delivering clean electricity from deserted  
areas to load centers through grid interconnection will turn the disadvantages in ecology and  
environment into the advantages in resource development and utilization. To protect soil and water and  
restore the ecological environment, European Energy Interconnection can promote afforestation,  
improve soil quality and build agricultural infrastructure by a series of measures. It includes  
transmission of clean energy, upgrade of industrial structure and coordinated development of resources.  
Compared with the BAU scenario, European Energy Interconnection scenario will increase the value of  
land resources by 13.5 billion USD per year by 2035 and 18 billion USD per year by 2050.  
6.4 Political Benefits  
1 Strengthening the foundation of regional mutual trust.  
The construction of European Energy Interconnection will strengthen the cooperation among the  
European countries in the field of energy. Mutual trust in the region will be enhanced through  
consultation and cooperation for shared benefits of electric power projects among the countries. Further  
market-oriented construction will be promoted, and strong impetus will be provided for regional  
integration. It will help countries in the region to build a solid partnership and enhance the foundation  
of mutual trust.  
2 Promoting coordinated regional development.  
Promoting the interconnection of Asia, Europe and Africa will facilitate the optimal allocation of  
resources in a wider range, realize the organic unity of the economic interests of energy exporting  
countries and the energy security of consuming countries, and provide new synergy for the sustainable  
development in the region. The endeavor will lead to a new regional energy governance system that is  
centered on clean development and interconnection. It will effectively mediate potential political,  
military and geopolitical conflicts as a result of energy resource competition. Meanwhile, the efforts  
encourage mutual support and coordinated development between different countries, and promote  
multi-polar development of the world.  
3 Enhancing regional integration.  
In the establishment of European Energy Interconnection, European countries could share clean energy  
resources and engage in inter-continental or cross-border electricity trading. Energy trading and  
economic cooperation will greatly boost regional economic integration. European Energy  
Interconnection will also help Africa to develop in concert, ensuring a wider range of regional economic  
and social prosperity and stability.  
7
Development Outlook  
of Achieving 1.5°C  
Temperature  
Control  
Target  
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7
Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
The construction of European Energy Interconnection will exploit and utilize the abundant clean energy  
resources and reduce the carbon emissions within the continent, through establishing an interconnected  
platform for clean energy exploitation, allocation and utilization. It is a response to achieve the Paris  
Agreement’s 2°C temperature control target, which can also offer the possibility to further control the  
temperature rise within 1.5°C globally as well as in Europe. This chapter comprehensively considers  
conditions of clean energy resources, economic industries and technological development, and proposes  
the accelerated development scenario on the basis of constructing the European Energy Interconnection.  
This scenario can help achieve the global 1.5°C temperature control target, where the main strategies  
include accelerating Clean Replacement on the energy supply side and increasing the capability and  
depth of Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side, and appropriate applying the carbon  
capture and storage (CCS) and negative emissions technologies.  
7.1 Situations and Requirements  
Achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target is of great significance for global sustainable  
development and the well-being of all countries. Achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target can  
reduce the risks of the global climate system, and ensure safer natural and human systems. Under the  
global temperature rise of 1.5°C and 2°C, climate characteristics will display significant differences in  
such as the average surface air temperature over the land and the sea, the probability of extreme  
temperature, heavy precipitation and droughts in human habitants. Compared to the 2°C temperature  
rise scenario, the 1.5°C scenario can prevent the melting of permafrost regions of 1.5 to 2.5 million  
km2. It also reduces the proportion of affected biodiversity and the high-risk areas by more than a half,  
and prevents the fishing industry from severe losses. There will be hundreds of millions of people  
alleviated from climate-related risk and poverty. The proportion of the population suffering from water  
shortage will also be reduced by up to 50%. Furthermore, risks caused by climate change on the overall  
global economic development will decline, and the proportion of population threatened by poverty will  
be reduced.  
Europe is in urgent need to implement climate actions from all respects to achieve the 1.5°C  
temperature control target. According to the IPCC’s research, human activities have caused a global  
temperature rise of about 1°C compared to the pre-industrial level. If the current trend of emissions  
continues, the emission budget aiming to control the temperature rise within 1.5°C will be used up in  
around 2030, and the global temperature rise may reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052. To achieve the  
1.5°C target, the cumulative CO2 emissions should be limited between 420 and 580 billion tonnes from  
2018 to 2100.1 This means that the budge of global carbon emissions will be reduced by higher than  
50%. The total energy demand and historical greenhouse gas emissions of Europe are huge. To reach  
the 1.5°C temperature control target, it is urgent to accelerate mitigation, and strive to achieve net zero  
emissions by 2050.  
———————————————————————————————————————————————————  
1Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on 1.5 °C Temperature Rise, 2018.  
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Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
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7.2 Implementation Paths  
It is necessary to innovate and promote various highly efficient and low-carbon energy technologies,  
improve and strengthen low-carbon energy policies in all countries, and continuously strengthen  
regional energy cooperation. Such actions will effectively facilitate clean and low-carbon energy  
transition in Europe, thus significantly emphasizing the endeavor to address climate change and to  
reduce emission.  
7.2.1 Clean Replacement  
Clean Replacement should be sped up on the energy supply side. The opportunities of rapid  
development of new energy power generation technology and rapid growth of their economics should  
be made full use of. Wide-area allocation and efficient use, will further accelerate the coordinated  
development of hydro, wind and solar as well as biomass energy. It will also play a complementary role  
in the temporal and spatial spans, thus greatly increasing the proportion of clean energy utilization in  
Europe, and rapidly reducing the proportion of fossil energy and greenhouse gas emissions.  
Hydropower  
The construction of hydropower stations in the Scandinavian, Alps and Pyrenees Mountains  
will be accelerated. Additionally, the comprehensive development of hydro energy in Turkish  
Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, and the centralized development and efficient delivery of  
cascade hydropower stations in the Volga, Yenisey, Ob and Lena rivers in Russia will be  
promoted.  
Wind energy  
By making full use of the leading advantages of offshore wind power development technology and  
management experience, the construction of large offshore wind power bases in the North Sea will  
be accelerated, and the development of wind power in Baltic Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea  
will be intensified. In order to actively develop onshore wind power, the coordinated development of  
distributed and centralized onshore wind power in various regions should promoted.  
Solar energy  
The development of distributed PV in Europe will be further accelerated, and PV in industrial and  
commercial buildings, residential rooftop PV without energy storage should be vigorously developed.  
By making full use of low-value land such as waste factories, power plants and other large-scale  
abandoned public facilities, the centralized development of PV or CSP in southern Europe such as  
Spain and Turkey will be promoted.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
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7.2.2 Electricity Replacement  
Electricity Replacement should be enhanced on the energy consumption side. Policies such as  
providing financial subsidies and tax reductions should be implemented. The research and development  
of the related technologies should be further accelerated, so as to support the development of  
electrification industry and stimulate the potential of Electricity Replacement. Based on these  
approaches, the economic feasibility of Electricity Replacement can be improved, the scale of  
electricity consumption can be expanded, and the structure of final energy consumption can be  
modified.  
Supportive policies should be proposed to increase the technical research and industrial  
support for electric vehicles and electric machinery, optimize infrastructure layout, build new  
business models and industrial ecology, and deliver breakthroughs in key technologies such  
as power batteries and heat pumps, support technological innovation in the industrial field.  
These will further enhance the economic benefits of direct Electricity Replacement. The  
Direct  
Electricity  
widely use of electric boilers, electric kiln furnaces, heat pumps, electric drills, electric  
irrigation and other applications, will stimulate the market vitality, and expand the scale of  
Electricity Replacement.  
Replacement  
Advanced electrification technologies such as electro-hydrogen and its fuel cells,  
electro-synthesis of fuels and raw materials should be actively developed. The  
construction of related infrastructure should be accelerated to increase the production  
scale of electro-hydrogen and electro-synthesis of fuels, and to improve the  
transportation and distribution efficiency. The cost is expected to be reduced rapidly, and  
in around 2040, indirect Electricity Replacement techniques will be widely applied in  
metal smelting, long-distance passenger/freight, aviation and navigation, which will  
further improve the level of electrification and cleanliness.  
Indirect  
Electricity  
Replacement  
7.2.3 Carbon Sequestration and Reduction  
The application of carbon sequestration and reduction technologies should be promoted. Based on  
greater efforts to promote Clean Replacement on the energy supply side and Electricity Replacement on  
the energy consumption side and to reduce GHG emissions, more supportive policies are needed to  
promote research, development, commercialization and large-scale application of carbon sequestration  
and carbon reduction technologies, which will directly reduce GHG in the atmosphere.  
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Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
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The cost of CO2 emission reduction with CCS dropped to 60 USD per tonne  
in 2012. The CCS technology is expected to be cost-effective for application  
by 2030, which will be widely applied to power and heat production, heavy  
industry, chemical industries, etc. in the long term. To achieve 1.5°C  
temperature control target, it is expected that by 2050, carbon capture  
equipment should be installed in more than 80% of thermal power plants and  
industrial carbon emission sources.  
01  
Carbon capture  
Bioenergy with CCS technology (BECCS) will help to achieve negative  
emissions in electricity generation. Both biomass generation and biomass  
fuel technology have some applications now. Once the CCS technology is  
economical for large-scale application, the scale of BECCS power  
generation units will increase rapidly to achieve large-scale negative  
emissions and promote in-depth emission reduction.  
02  
Negative  
emissions  
technologies  
03  
The coverage of various plants will be expanded, and the carbon  
sequestration capacity of agriculture, forestry and land use sectors should  
be increased to promote ecology restoration and negative emission in arid  
and semi-arid areas near the sea through seawater desalination and other  
sources.  
Forest carbon sink  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes  
Based on the plan of European Energy Interconnection to achieve the 2°C goal in previous chapters,  
and in consideration of the comprehensive requirements from clean development trend, economic  
development conditions, technological innovation and carbon emission reduction in Europe, the plan of  
European Energy Interconnection to achieve 1.5°C scenario goal is studied and proposed by  
accelerating Clean Replacement, Electricity Replacement, carbon sequestration and emission reduction.  
7.3.1 Energy Demand  
Europe will speed up Clean Replacement in energy supply side. Fossil fuel demand will reach the  
peak ahead of schedule and then decline rapidly. As to energy consumption side, it will forge  
ahead with in-depth Electricity Replacement and seek enhanced energy efficiency, will reduce the  
final energy consumption, and will secure a remarkable increase in the rate of electricity  
consumption within the total final energy consumption.  
Primary energy demand  
According to the partial substitution method, the primary energy demand in 2035 and 2050 will reach  
3340 million and 3070 million tce respectively, with an average annual decline rate of 0.8% from 2016  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
092  
to 2050. The demand for fossil energy will peak around 2025, and then will fall back rapidly, and will  
decline to 440 million tce by 2050, with a drop of 85% from 2016. Clean Replacement in Europe will  
continuously gather speed, lifting the proportion of clean energy in primary energy to 62% and 93% by  
2035 and 2050 respectively. The proportion of clean energy in Western Europe and Northern Europe  
will be relatively high, reaching 96% and 93% respectively, while the proportion of clean energy in  
Eastern Europe and RBUM will be relatively low, both reaching 90%. Figure 7-1 shows changes in  
primary energy demand in Europe in line with 1.5°C temperature control target. Figure 7-2 shows the  
proportion of clean energy in each sub-region.  
Figure 7-1 Primary Energy Demand in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Figure 7-2 Proportion of Clean Energy in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Final energy consumption  
The final energy consumption will decline from 2016 to 2050, with an average annual decline rate of  
1.2%. It will reach 2170 million tce and 1760 million tce by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The  
7
Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
093  
consumption for fossil energy will record a sharp decline to 940 million and 300 million tce by 2035  
and 2050 respectively. The in-depth Electricity Replacement will accelerate in final sectors. It is  
estimated that the proportion of electricity will reach 44% and 75% by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The  
share of electricity of industry, transport and building will reach 46% and 71%, 18% and 64%, 50% and  
81% by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The trend of final energy consumption in Europe under 1.5°C  
temperature control target is shown in Figure 7-3. The proportion of electricity in final sectors in  
Europe achieving 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in Figure 7-4.  
Figure 7-3 Final Energy Consumption in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Figure 7-4 Proportion of Electricity in Final Sectors in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
7.3.2 Power Demand  
Total power demand  
By 2035, the total electricity consumption in Europe will be about 7.1 PWh, with an average annual  
growth rate of 2.2%. The peak load will be about 1.22 TW, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%.  
The annual per capita electricity consumption will be 8.6 MWh. By 2050, the total electricity  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
094  
consumption in Europe will be about 9.4 PWh, with an average annual growth rate of 1.9%. The peak  
load will be about 1.64 TW, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. The forecast of electricity  
consumption in Europe to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in Figure 7-5.  
Figure 7-5 Forecast of Electricity Demand in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Electricity consumption per capita  
The annual electricity consumption per capita in Europe will increase from 5885 kWh in 2017 to 8600  
kWh in 2035 and 12000 kWh in 2050. The per capita electricity consumption in the Northern Europe  
countries will continuously be at the highest level, with 18000 and 21000 kWh in 2035 and 2050  
respectively. In 2050, the per capita electricity consumption in Western Europe, Southern Europe, the  
Baltic States, RBUM will be more than 10000 kWh, and the annual electricity consumption per capita  
in British Isles and Eastern Europe will be 9897 and 8782 kWh respectively. The forecast of electricity  
consumption per capita in the Europe to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in  
Figure 7-6.  
Figure 7-6 Forecast of Annual Electricity Consumption per Capita in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
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Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
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Electricity consumption in sub-regions  
By 2050, the electricity consumption in British Isles, Northern Europe, Western Europe, Southern  
Europe, Eastern Europe, Baltic States and RBUM will be 803.5 TWh, 642.4 TWh, 3300 TWh, 878.2  
TWh, 1500 TWh, 57.3 TWh and 2200 TWh respectively, accounting for 8.6%, 6.9%, 34.9%, 9.4%,  
16.4%, 0.6% and 23.4% of total electricity consumption respectively. The electricity consumption  
proportion of each region in Europe to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in  
Figure 7-7.  
Figure 7-7 Proportion of Electricity Consumption by Region in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
7.3.3 Power Supply  
The proportion of clean energy in Europe will further increase. The outlook for the European  
installed capacity under the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in Figure 7-8. The installed  
capacity structure is shown in Figure 7-9.  
By 2035, the total installed capacity in Europe will be 3.07 TW, of which clean energy installed  
capacity will be 2.73 TW, and the proportion will increase from 54.5% in 2017 to 89%. Wind power  
installed capacity will be 1.16 TW, accounting for 38%; solar power installed capacity will be 830 GW,  
accounting for 27%; hydropower installed capacity will be 490 GW, accounting for 16%; nuclear power  
installed capacity will be 140 GW, accounting for 5%. The total installed capacity of fossil energy will  
be 340 GW, which will significant drop from 45.5% of 2017 to 11%.  
By 2050, the total installed capacity in Europe will be 4.05 TW, of which clean energy installed  
capacity will be 3.92 TW, and the proportion will increase to 97%. Wind power installed capacity will  
be 1.91 TW, accounting for 47%; solar power installed capacity will be 1.14 TW, accounting for 28%;  
hydropower installed capacity will be 630 GW, accounting for 16%; nuclear power installed capacity  
will be 100 GW, accounting for 3%. The total installed capacity of fossil energy will decrease to 140  
GW.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
096  
Figure 7-8 Outlook of Power Generation Installed Capacity in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Figure 7-9 Structure of Power Generation Installed Capacity in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
By 2035, clean energy generation will reach 6.3 PWh, increasing from 52% in 2017 to 87%. Wind  
power and solar power generation will be 2.7 PWh and 1.1 PWh, increasing from 8% and 2% in 2017  
to 38% and 16%, respectively. The hydropower generation will be 1.1 PWh, dropping to 15%. The  
nuclear power generation will be about 0.9 PWh, accounting for 12%. Thermal power generation will  
be 0.9 PWh, dropped from 48% in 2017 to 13%.  
By 2050, clean energy generation will reach 9.2 PWh, up to 97%. Wind power and solar power  
generation will be 5.1 PWh and 1.5 PWh, increasing to 53% and 16%, respectively. The hydropower  
generation will be 1.3 PWh, dropping to 14%. The nuclear power generation will be about 0.6 PWh,  
accounting for 7%. Thermal power generation will be 0.3 PWh, dropping to 3%.  
In terms of sub-regions, by 2050, the installed capacity of British Isles, Northern Europe, Western  
Europe, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, Baltic States, RBUM will be 7.5%, 7.8%, 32.4%, 9.9%,  
15.8%, 0.7% and 25.9% respectively. The proportion of thermal installation of Russia and its  
surrounding area will drop from 70% in 2016 to 8%. The proportion of thermal power in other  
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Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
097  
sub-regions will be relatively low, ranging from 1% to 3%. Installed capacity of British Isles, Northern  
Europe, Baltic States, Russia and its surrounding area will be mainly wind power. The European  
regional share of installed capacity in 2050 under the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in  
Figure 7-10, and the proportional installation structure is shown in Figure 7-11.  
Figure 7-10 Share of Installed Generation Capacity by Region in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Figure 7-11 Structure of Installed Generation Capacity by Region in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
In terms of each country, by 2050, installed capacity of Russia, Germany, Turkey, France, Spain,  
UK, and Italy will be among the top seven which will be 890 GW, 400 GW, 320 GW, 300 GW, 290 GW,  
280GW, and 270 GW and will account for 21.9%, 9.9%, 7.9%, 7.5%, 7.1%, 6.8% and 6.7%,  
respectively. The generation mix will vary greatly from country to country. The proportion of installed  
generation capacity by main countries in Europe to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target is  
shown in Figure 7-12.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
098  
Figure 7-12 Proportion of Installed Generation Capacity by Country in Europe to  
Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
7.3.4 Power Grid Interconnection  
The large-scale clean energy transmission channel will be further strengthened. The development of  
clean energy in Northern Europe, North Africa and Central Asia will be expanded. The scale of  
inter-continental and inter-regional interconnection will be strengthened. In 2050, the scale of  
inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach 157 GW, of which the inter-continental power  
flow will reach 91 GW and the inter-regional power flow will reach 66 GW. New transmission projects  
such as Morocco−Spain, Tunisia−France, Kazakhstan−Romania, Norway−Netherlands will be  
constructed. Within each region, the construction of cross-border and domestic AC grids will be  
strengthened. The capacity of transmitting and consuming clean energy will be strengthened. The power  
flow in Europe to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target is shown in Figure 7-13.  
Figure 7-13 Illustration of Power Flow in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
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Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
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7.3.5 Comparative Analysis  
Achieving the global 1.5°C temperature control target of the Paris Agreement will significantly reduce  
the risk of climate change, and generate greater benefits for the human being and ecosystem. In the  
meantime, this mission requires higher commitments from countries across the world to achieve  
low-carbon energy transition, and to construct a high-proportion clean energy system. The total energy  
consumption and historical greenhouse gas emissions of Europe are huge. It is necessary to give play to  
the scientific and technological advantages, to promote a high-proportion Clean Replacement on the  
supply side, and in-depth Electricity Replacement on the consumption side, and to adopt advanced,  
mature and new technologies. Actions should be taken to further accelerate energy transition, to reduce  
fossil energy consumption, and accelerate the construction of a zero-carbon energy system, thus  
supporting to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target.  
In order to achieve the global 1.5°C temperature control target, Europe will need to further  
reinforce the clean and low-carbon development. It will continuously improve the level of  
cleanliness and electrification, and power grid interconnection in response to the challenges of  
long-term climate change goals. Compared with the 2°C scenario, the 1.5°C scenario will reduce  
fossil energy demand by 53% in primary energy by 2050; will increase the proportion of clean energy  
exploitation that installed capacity of clean energy generation will increase by 10% by 2050; will  
accelerate Electricity Replacement, with the proportion of electricity in final energy consumption  
increased by about 16 percentage points by 2050; will strengthen grid interconnection with 24 GW of  
inter-continental and inter-regional power flows increase; and will increase investment of clean energy  
exploitation and grid construction by 10% by 2050. The analysis and comparison of energy and power  
in Europe under 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios is shown in Figure 7-14.  
Figure 7-14 Analysis and Comparison of Energy and Power in Europe  
under the 2°C and 1.5°C Scenarios  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
100  
Epilogue  
Epilogue  
As a major innovation in the energy field, European Energy Interconnection is a systematic plan and the  
key to accelerating the energy transition and achieving coordinated and sustainable development of  
economy, society and environment in Europe. It can realize wide-area sharing of high quality clean  
energy resources, ensure clean, safe, economical and efficient supply of energy and power, promote  
re-industrialization and regional integration, upgrade industrial structure and economic development  
mode, effectively address climate change and protect the ecological environment, to open a new chapter  
in Europe’s sustainable development.  
Building European Energy Interconnection is a great cause and a complicated systematic work,  
involving politics, economy, technology and other aspects. It needs to follow the principles of extensive  
consultation, joint contribution, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, to coagulate wide wisdom,  
carry out practical cooperation and form a strong joint force. Common efforts should be put into the  
following aspects in the future. Firstly, expanding cooperative consensus. Actions are needed for  
promoting a broad consensus among governments, energy enterprises, industrial and social  
organizations in all countries, establishing a cooperation framework and working mechanism to  
promote clean development and interconnection, and introducing supporting policies, and establishing  
cross-border energy and power market and trading mechanism. Secondly, strengthening overall  
planning. By giving full play to a leading role of planning, following actions should be implemented:  
strengthening top-level design, improving the coordination of planning among countries and areas,  
boosting co-development of the upstream and downstream of industrial chains, and promoting deep  
integration among the European Energy Interconnection and the energy and power development plans  
of each country. Thirdly, strengthening technological innovation. To give innovation a key role in  
social driving force, consolidating the technological advantages of relevant enterprises and research  
institutions, strengthen the R&D and application of high-efficiency clean power generation, advanced  
power transmission, large scale energy storage and intelligent control and other technologies and  
equipment, and promote the establishment of a collaborative system of technical standards. Fourthly,  
promoting project breakthroughs. To strengthen innovation in business models, investment and  
financing models, promote the implementation of a number of economically competitive and strong  
demonstrative clean energy and grid interconnection projects.  
Building European Energy Interconnection is in accordance with the common interests of the  
whole humanity, and has a brilliant and promising future. We sincerely hope that all relevant parties  
work together and collaborate closely to actively promote the building of European Energy  
Interconnection, for sustainable development in Europe, and jointly create a brighter future for the  
mankind.  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and Models  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and Models  
101  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and Models  
1.1 Overall Framework  
The GEI research aims to meet energy demand in a green and clean way. It focuses on energy &  
power supply and demand forecasting, power grid interconnection research and comprehensive  
benefit analysis, taken into consideration economic, social, climate/environmental and resource  
factors comprehensively. The overall research framework of Global Energy Interconnection is  
shown in Figure 1-1.  
Figure 1-1 GEI Research Framework  
1.2 Main Models  
1.2.1 Energy and Power Demand Forecast Model  
Based on the complexity of global energy and power system and multi-objective orientation of energy  
and power transition, energy and power demand forecast model is formed by combining “simulation”  
with “optimization” according to the idea of “top-down” and “bottom-up” complementing each other,  
as shown in Figure 1-2.  
“Top-down” analyzes the influence of economic development on energy demand from macro to  
micro; “bottom-up” quantifies the influence of technology progress, efficiency improvement,  
environmental constraints, and the energy policies on energy demand from micro to macro, then  
predicts energy consumption intensity and overall energy structure. According to the forecast of energy  
service demand and energy consumption intensity, the “simulation” methods, such as regression  
analysis, trend extrapolation and growth curve, are used to realize the final energy power demand  
forecast combining with multi-objective or single-objective “optimization” model. Finally, considering  
the efficiency of power generation, heating, oil refining and other conversion processes, the  
global/regional primary energy demand variety is calculated.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
102  
Figure 1-2 Forecasting Model of Energy and Power Demand  
1.2.2 Power Generation Planning Model  
The power generation planning model mainly aims at minimizing the total social cost including  
construction, operation and maintenance and fuel costs during the planning period, and constructing  
problems on optimization based on energy policies, environmental constraints, energy resources, and  
power balance and to solve the planned annual power generation installed capacity, various types of  
installed components, timing of development, carbon emissions, etc., as shown in Figure 1-3.  
1.2.3 Clean Energy Resource Evaluation Model  
The development and utilization of hydro, solar and wind energy resources is one of the core contents  
of setting up Global Energy Interconnection. The clean energy resource evaluation model includes  
mainly hydro, solar and wind energy resource evaluation model, through resource data, numerical  
simulation and algorithm research to obtain evaluation indicators, as shown in Figure 1-4. The  
evaluation indicators include mainly theoretical potential and technical potential and can form a  
preliminary development plan for large-scale bases with specific construction conditions.  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and Models  
103  
Figure 1-3 Planning Model of Power Supply Generation  
Figure 1-4 Resource Evaluation Module of New Energy  
Theoretical potential: Hydropower theoretical potential are based on high-precision topographic  
data. Digital river networks can be generated through filling, flow and flow volume analysis. The digital  
river network has a complete river network topology, which can extract the vector of a section of the  
river; the length of the section of the river, the drop, the specific drop and other information on the  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
104  
longitudinal section; the catchment area at the breakpoint of the river section. Combined with  
hydrological data such as river basin precipitation and river runoff, the theoretical hydro reserves of  
each river segment can be calculated. There are two methods commonly used to evaluate the theoretical  
reserves of wind and solar resources. The first is the observation data method, which uses long-term  
observation data of the weather station next to the wind farm and PV field to evaluate the theoretical  
resource potential of the area. The second is the numerical simulation method which uses satellite  
observations data and meteorological data to establish a meteorological numerical model to simulate the  
effects of the operational process on the ground and atmosphere as well as the terrain on the  
atmospheric movement, and obtain the spatial distribution trend of climate resources and the  
distribution of wind and solar resources in a given area. The global wind and solar resources assessment  
mainly adopt numerical simulation method. This method has the advantages of unified data sources and  
complete coverage. In some countries and regions, it can be checked and revised with the observation  
data of ground meteorological stations.  
Technical potential: The popularization and application of satellite remote sensing, big data and  
intelligent algorithms provide conditions for the fine assessment of hydropower, wind power and PV  
power generation worldwide. The location of hydropower dam sites and power plants can be  
determined based on the topographic contour and supporting data such as town distribution, population  
distribution, traffic facilities, natural reserves, and existing cascade stations. Based on wind and solar  
resources, combined with geographic information such as topography and landform, together with the  
information on the cultivated land, forests, natural protection areas and human activities, and the  
influence of geological conditions such as faults and rock layers, effective land areas can be accurately  
calculated. Hence with power generation technology equipment parameters, the technical potential can  
be further calculated.  
1.2.4 Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Model  
Based on the GTAP-E model, the comprehensive benefit assessment model can evaluate the economic  
and social benefits of the Global Energy Interconnection by adding new energy replacement  
characteristics into the production module and further modifying the algorithm and welfare  
decomposition, as shown in Figure 1-5. Production modules, consumption modules and international  
trade modules show in details the behaviors of major economic entities such as the producers, families,  
and governments, and build a balanced system that reflects regional economic operations. Based on the  
GTAP-E, the model extends GTAP-E’s original factor-energy nesting structure by integrating the  
GTAP-Power database, as shown in Figure 1-6, fully reflecting the Clean Replacement and Electricity  
Replacement features of Global Energy Interconnection. In the process of regional and industrial  
division, combined with the characteristics of Global Energy Interconnection layout and global power  
flow pattern, the impact of clean development, Electricity Replacement and power trade on global  
economic activities are comprehensively assessed.  
Appendix 1 Research Methods and Models  
105  
Figure 1-5 Framework of Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Model  
Figure 1-6 Model Nested Structure  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
106  
Appendix 2 Basic Data Tables  
Appendix 2 Basic Data Tables  
Table 2-1 Economic and Social Status of Europe  
Exports of  
goods and  
services  
Imports of  
goods and  
services  
Carbon  
emission  
(million  
GDP per  
capita  
(USD)  
Electricity  
access rate  
(%)  
Population  
(thousand) (million USD) (annual %)  
GDP  
GDP growth  
Country/Region  
(million USD) (million USD) tonnes)  
United Kingdom  
Ireland  
66730  
4750  
5300  
9900  
5510  
5730  
330  
2637900  
331400  
399500  
535600  
252300  
329900  
24500  
1.8  
7.2  
2.0  
2.1  
2.7  
2.3  
4.6  
2.3  
2.9  
1.7  
1.5  
3.0  
2.8  
2.2  
2.6  
1.6  
1.7  
4.9  
2.0  
3.8  
39932  
68942  
75704  
53253  
45805  
57219  
71315  
38679  
48483  
43507  
104499  
28208  
21291  
44681  
47381  
80333  
32155  
23450  
6284  
794800  
397300  
144700  
242900  
97200  
825600  
296700  
132100  
223100  
96400  
371.1  
36.9  
35.5  
38.0  
45.5  
33.5  
2.1  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
Norway  
Sweden  
Finland  
Denmark  
Iceland  
179900  
11300  
156500  
10300  
France  
64840  
17020  
11420  
590  
2586300  
830600  
494900  
62300  
797100  
689000  
424400  
139000  
451000  
93600  
824500  
599800  
418700  
118300  
412700  
91900  
292.9  
157.1  
91.6  
8.5  
Netherlands  
Belgium  
Luxembourg  
Spain  
46650  
10290  
82660  
8820  
8460  
60670  
2080  
8830  
2880  
1314300  
219300  
3693200  
416800  
679000  
1946600  
48500  
238.6  
47.4  
731.6  
62.9  
37.9  
325.7  
13.6  
45.5  
3.7  
Portugal  
Germany  
Austria  
1737600  
224000  
440700  
606600  
40200  
1458300  
211100  
368000  
550000  
35400  
Switzerland  
Italy  
Slovenia  
Serbia  
44100  
22300  
25200  
Albania  
13000  
4533  
4100  
6100  
Bosnia and  
Herzegovina  
3350  
18100  
3.2  
5395  
7200  
10200  
22.0  
100  
Greece  
Croatia  
10570  
4180  
630  
203100  
55200  
4800  
1.5  
2.9  
4.7  
0.2  
4.8  
4.4  
18883  
13384  
7784  
67000  
28200  
2000  
69100  
27000  
3100  
63.1  
15.9  
2.1  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
Montenegro  
North Macedonia  
Poland  
2080  
37950  
10640  
11300  
526400  
215900  
5418  
6200  
7800  
6.9  
13861  
20380  
286000  
172100  
264000  
155900  
293.1  
101.4  
Czech Republic  
Appendix 2 Basic Data Tables  
107  
continued  
Exports of  
goods and  
services  
Imports of  
goods and  
services  
Carbon  
emission  
(million  
GDP per  
capita  
(USD)  
Electricity  
access rate  
(%)  
Population  
(thousand) (million USD) (annual %)  
GDP  
GDP growth  
Country/Region  
(million USD) (million USD) tonnes)  
Slovakia  
Hungary  
Romania  
Bulgaria  
Cyprus  
5450  
9730  
95600  
139800  
211400  
58200  
22100  
851500  
26600  
30500  
47500  
1578600  
54700  
112200  
9700  
3.2  
4.1  
7.0  
3.8  
4.5  
7.4  
4.9  
4.6  
4.1  
1.6  
2.5  
2.5  
4.7  
17579  
14279  
10793  
8228  
92600  
123300  
87800  
39200  
14300  
211200  
20400  
18600  
38500  
411300  
36600  
53900  
3000  
89700  
112800  
92300  
37100  
15100  
249700  
19200  
18600  
37100  
326900  
36400  
62500  
5300  
30.2  
43.9  
67.9  
40.5  
6.3  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
19650  
7100  
1180  
25761  
10500  
20200  
15685  
16810  
10751  
5762  
Turkey  
81120  
1320  
338.8  
16.4  
6.8  
Estonia  
Latvia  
1950  
Lithuania  
Russia  
2850  
10.8  
53.1  
53.1  
197.7  
7.7  
145530  
9450  
Belarus  
Ukraine  
Moldova  
44490  
4060  
2641  
2724  
Note: Population data is from the United Nations, carbon emissions data is from the IEA and other data is from the World Bank. The  
carbon emissions data is for 2016, the rest are for 2017.  
Table 2-2 Energy Development Status and Outlook of Europe  
The proportion of clean  
energy in primary energy  
(%)  
Final energy  
consumption  
(billion tce)  
The proportion of  
electricity in final energy  
(%)  
Primary energy demand  
(billion tce)  
Region  
2016  
2035  
2050  
2016  
2035  
2050  
2016  
2035  
2050  
2016  
2035  
2050  
British Isles  
0.29  
0.25  
0.25  
24  
60  
86  
0.20  
0.16  
0.13  
23  
47  
72  
Northern  
Europe  
0.24  
1.37  
0.34  
0.21  
1.14  
0.31  
0.20  
1.04  
0.28  
70  
39  
30  
73  
60  
60  
90  
84  
82  
0.14  
0.91  
0.24  
0.13  
0.72  
0.19  
0.11  
0.59  
0.15  
38  
25  
25  
51  
45  
44  
74  
67  
64  
Western  
Europe  
Southern  
Europe  
Eastern Europe  
Baltic states  
RBUM  
0.56  
0.02  
1.26  
0.58  
0.03  
1.08  
0.58  
0.02  
0.95  
24  
32  
16  
60  
66  
35  
76  
80  
65  
0.38  
0.02  
0.80  
0.38  
0.02  
0.75  
0.35  
0.02  
0.59  
23  
20  
19  
36  
30  
31  
52  
39  
48  
Note: Estimated according to International Energy Agency (IEA) data.  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
108  
Table 2-3 Power Development Status and Outlook of Europe  
2017  
Annual  
2035  
Annual  
2050  
Annual  
Electricity electricity  
consum- consu-  
Electricity electricity  
consum- consu-  
Electricity electricity  
consum- consu-  
Country/  
Region  
Total Per capita  
installa- installa-  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
Total Per capita  
installa- installa-  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
Total Per capita  
installa- installa-  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
ption  
mption  
ption  
mption  
ption  
mption  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
United  
Kingdom  
324.8  
4908  
92560  
1.4  
505.1  
7025  
190500  
2.7  
641.8  
8514  
261700  
3.5  
Ireland  
Norway  
Sweden  
Finland  
28.2  
133.7  
139.9  
85.5  
34.1  
18.6  
482.0  
115.4  
84.8  
6.5  
5922  
25201  
14116  
15480  
5947  
55518  
7418  
6774  
7420  
11141  
5784  
4802  
6560  
8277  
7480  
5398  
6827  
4505  
2423  
10510  
33330  
39040  
15780  
2690  
2.2  
6.3  
3.9  
2.9  
0.5  
49.9  
2.0  
1.9  
1.9  
3.0  
2.3  
1.9  
2.5  
2.9  
2.1  
2.2  
1.8  
1.0  
0.7  
46.2  
153.6  
170.3  
93.6  
8595  
24801  
15567  
16172  
8652  
73411  
9595  
9463  
8951  
13894  
9925  
7821  
9088  
10582  
9334  
7638  
8486  
5595  
4018  
23950  
90190  
76130  
36770  
38150  
14650  
214320  
67700  
52400  
4590  
4.5  
14.6  
7.0  
6.4  
6.2  
39.1  
3.1  
3.8  
4.3  
6.5  
4.8  
2.8  
3.8  
6.4  
4.8  
3.9  
2.5  
2.3  
1.6  
56.5  
177.0  
199.7  
99.8  
9741  
26019  
17180  
17010  
10540  
91805  
11414  
11650  
10178  
15844  
12973  
9739  
27400  
111750  
92500  
50480  
44360  
17080  
291570  
79450  
56200  
5500  
4.7  
16.4  
8.0  
8.6  
7.0  
43.8  
4.1  
4.5  
4.5  
6.9  
6.2  
3.9  
4.8  
7.9  
5.5  
4.5  
4.7  
3.1  
2.5  
Denmark  
Iceland  
52.9  
66.6  
16730  
130730  
31980  
21580  
1740  
27.5  
35.8  
France  
660.7  
167.4  
108.8  
9.8  
805.9  
204.1  
127.1  
12.6  
Netherlands  
Belgium  
Luxembourg  
Spain  
268.1  
49.6  
538.7  
72.3  
63.4  
320.4  
14.2  
39.6  
7.1  
104520  
19800  
208230  
25030  
17620  
13310  
3820  
455.2  
75.8  
219000  
26870  
312040  
57660  
44860  
225160  
5060  
575.9  
87.6  
275500  
34760  
380770  
70150  
54260  
247310  
9210  
Portugal  
Germany  
Austria  
742.8  
94.9  
852.1  
111.9  
105.1  
533.5  
18.1  
10753  
12609  
10639  
9684  
Switzerland  
Italy  
87.8  
439.4  
17.3  
Slovenia  
Serbia  
9325  
8490  
45.6  
18660  
4620  
46.4  
6230  
23230  
6600  
Albania  
1930  
11.6  
14.3  
5353  
Bosnia and  
Herzegovina  
12.6  
3593  
3980  
1.1  
17.6  
5287  
8250  
2.5  
19.5  
6383  
11050  
3.6  
Greece  
Croatia  
51.9  
17.9  
3.4  
4651  
4273  
5406  
16390  
4780  
950  
1.5  
1.1  
1.5  
80.4  
25.2  
3.8  
7565  
6645  
6155  
35490  
16180  
2210  
3.3  
4.3  
3.6  
91.4  
28.4  
4.0  
9162  
8195  
6747  
42860  
18280  
2210  
4.3  
5.3  
3.8  
Montenegro  
North  
Macedonia  
7.2  
159.3  
66.3  
3456  
4173  
6244  
1890  
39390  
20850  
0.9  
1.0  
2.0  
11.2  
230.3  
89.6  
5453  
6453  
8620  
7870  
93180  
26030  
3.8  
2.6  
2.5  
13.7  
253.7  
99.5  
7100  
7834  
9895  
10400  
116980  
40200  
5.4  
3.6  
4.0  
Poland  
Czech  
Republic  
Slovakia  
Hungary  
28.6  
41.9  
5250  
4310  
7720  
8570  
1.4  
0.9  
39.7  
57.6  
7494  
6401  
15160  
16120  
2.9  
1.8  
43.4  
61.5  
8738  
7428  
22940  
18720  
4.6  
2.3  
Appendix 2 Basic Data Tables  
109  
continued  
2017  
Annual  
2035  
Annual  
2050  
Annual  
Electricity electricity  
consum- consu-  
Electricity electricity  
consum- consu-  
Electricity electricity  
Total Per capita  
consum- consu-  
installa- installa-  
Country/  
Region  
Total Per capita  
installa- installa-  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
Total Per capita  
installa- installa-  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
ption  
mption  
ption  
mption  
ption  
mption  
tion (MW) tion (kW)  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
(TWh) per capita  
(kWh)  
Romania  
Bulgaria  
Cyprus  
Turkey  
Estonia  
Latvia  
56.8  
34.4  
4.8  
2886  
4856  
4069  
3647  
6490  
3744  
4048  
7221  
3354  
3015  
1138  
19960  
12070  
1760  
1.0  
1.7  
1.5  
1.1  
2.2  
1.5  
1.2  
1.7  
1.1  
1.2  
0.1  
98.5  
42.7  
8.2  
5481  
6939  
6231  
5103  
9588  
6781  
6779  
9211  
5251  
5372  
1953  
35450  
15350  
4950  
2.0  
2.5  
3.8  
2.3  
4.4  
6.0  
2.9  
4.1  
1.4  
1.6  
1.0  
123.5  
47.5  
7535  
8756  
8966  
7477  
12337  
9318  
9286  
11124  
6393  
7356  
2795  
66460  
23950  
5830  
4.1  
4.4  
4.2  
3.3  
5.6  
7.4  
4.0  
6.3  
1.8  
2.9  
1.6  
12.4  
294.5  
8.5  
85200  
2830  
463.9  
11.7  
11.4  
17.9  
1271.8  
47.2  
214.3  
7.3  
207320  
5430  
715.0  
14.1  
314570  
6400  
7.3  
2930  
10090  
7700  
14.1  
11290  
9640  
Lithuania  
Russia  
11.7  
1039.8  
31.7  
133.3  
4.6  
3510  
22.3  
239870  
10140  
51790  
480  
569110  
12350  
65000  
3670  
1476.5  
54.8  
833610  
15450  
104800  
5290  
Belarus  
Ukraine  
Moldova  
267.9  
9.2  
Note: 2017 data from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), the US Energy Information  
Administration (EIA).  
Table 2-4 Installed Capacity Status and Outlook of Europe  
Unit: MW  
Thermal  
Hydro  
Wind  
Solar  
Nuclear  
Biomass and others  
Country/  
Region  
2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050  
United  
Kingdom  
46140 33000 21100 3820 11500 20100 18350 98000 140000 12900 30000 65000 9250 15000 11000 2100 3000 4500  
Ireland  
Norway  
Sweden  
Finland  
Denmark  
Iceland  
France  
6210 3200  
450 2500  
3750 3650  
7610 3600  
0
0
0
0
0
0
530 1450 2400 3080 14000 17500  
0
5000 7000  
600 1000  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
300  
250  
500  
250  
31660 52840 70500 1080 34000 40000 10  
10  
16300 32500 35500 6690 35000 52000  
0
2000 2000 8590  
3150 2980 3000  
10  
7310 10510 5500 19000 35000 910 1200 1510  
0
0
4000 1800 1350 1660 1670  
10  
3600  
1970 3850 4750  
0
25500 34000  
0
0
2400 2610  
0
0
0
0
0
2800 3000  
6660 700  
3150 3050 5680 1910 9700 9900  
0
0
2780  
1810  
0
0
18950 40000 16000 23790 38320 56320 13540 50000 102500 7650 40000 80000 63130 40000 30000 1080 6000 6750  
40 100 100 4630 26000 43500 2580 15000 20000 490 1600 1600 490 6000 8250  
6850 10000 4000 1430 2400 2400 2810 23000 32300 3380 14000 14000 5920  
Luxembourg 140 360 400 1320 1350 1350 120 900 1450 130 500 500  
Spain  
Netherlands 23060 19000 6000  
Belgium  
0
0
0
0
810 3000 3500  
10 1480 1800  
0
45530 28000 13000 20330 27000 31500 23010 50000 82000 6980 100000 135000 7120 9000 8000 740 5000 6000  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
110  
continued  
Thermal  
Hydro  
Wind  
Solar  
Nuclear  
Biomass and others  
Country/  
Region  
2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050 2017 2035 2050  
Portugal  
6390 1800  
0
7190 7570 10760 5090 7000 11500 490 9800 11500  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
620  
700  
1000  
Germany 80170 35000 23000 10620 30000 30730 55070 117000 167000 42020 110000 140000 9510  
7250 20000 20000  
570 1000 1250  
250 4200 5000  
2960 5000 6000  
Austria  
Switzerland  
Italy  
5610 3000 1500 14120 15660 17400 2730 8000 10000 1030 30000 40000  
2000 1000 12160 16000 18200 60 2660 10060 1390 20000 20000 3330  
69240 31000 12000 26630 40200 41350 9780 31000 45000 19660 117000 142000  
0
0
0
0
0
0
Slovenia  
Serbia  
1380 1500 1000 1300 1480 1760  
5500 4000 3000 5480 5480  
100 1200 1000 1840 3250 3650  
0
0
0
550 2500 270  
500 3500 700  
850  
0
40  
0
180  
250  
50  
450  
250  
200  
0
1430 9000  
100 1000  
0
0
7500 8500  
20 750  
1000 3800  
0
0
Albania  
0
0
Bosnia and  
Herzegovina  
1890 600  
550 2100 3400 3400  
0
2250 2300  
0
0
0
0
0
1000 1000  
1400 1500  
Greece  
Croatia  
8170 4200  
1390 800  
0
0
0
3400 7610 8360 2080 10000 16000 2450 12290 17000  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60  
70  
0
2090 4730 4730 540 5400 6800  
50  
0
5000 6500  
600 700  
5400 8000  
250  
0
250  
0
Montenegro 220  
North  
200  
660  
960  
960  
70  
40  
450  
370  
550  
600  
1160 300  
0
680 1800 1800  
20  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Macedonia  
Poland  
29580 2000 3000 2370 6680 6680 5650 53000 63500 290 17000 35000  
11000 4800 1180 3500 4000  
850 850  
2300 8800 530 5300 9000 1940 3200 1600 330 1000 1000  
500 1500 90 5000 6000 1890 5000 4600 310 2500 2500  
6380 9100 11610 2980 13000 30000 1290 5500 20000 1300 3400 1600 120 3250 3250  
Czech  
Republic  
11300 2000 1800 2260 2980 3050 310 4000 18500 2040 5200 8000 4040 11000 8000 800  
1920 820 2540 2540 2540  
5870 500 1500 60 2620 2620 320  
Slovakia  
Hungary  
Romania  
Bulgaria  
Cyprus  
0
0
6300 1200  
5040 600  
1480 550  
0
0
0
3200 6500 6500 700 2300 10700 1050 2500 5000 2000 1700  
0
0
0
0
0
0
80  
0
1750 1750  
200 750  
0
0
0
160 2500 3380  
0
1700 1700  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Turkey  
46280 10000 8000 27270 53000 72000 6520 61000 100000 3420 71000 122250  
630 11500 11500  
Estonia  
Latvia  
2110 400  
1030 1080 1200 1570 1840 1840  
560 200 1030 1050 1890 520 5200 6500  
0
10  
580 1000 340 4000 4650  
10  
0
200  
430  
500  
500  
500  
500  
90  
140  
90  
250  
750  
750  
250  
750  
750  
70 6000 7000  
Lithuania  
Russia  
0
80  
162800 171500 130000 48500 74530 117530 130 270020 517020 530 20060 32060 27900 22440 18440  
9780 8500 8000 90 200 400 10 800 1200 2010 4510  
30540 28340 24340 6230 10050 12050 470 9510 24510 740 4840 30840 13840 11110 11110  
410 640 640 60 300 450 960 1200 1670 2800  
—
10480 18480  
840 1340  
1150 1950  
100 200  
Belarus  
Ukraine  
Moldova  
0
0
0
0
—
—
0
0
0
0
0
—
Note: 2017 data from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E), the US Energy Information  
Administration (EIA).  
References  
111  
References  
References  
[1] Liu Zhenya. Global Energy Interconnection. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2015.  
[2] Liu Zhenya. UHVDC and UHVAC. Beijing: China Electric Power Press, 2013.  
[3] The United Nations. Transforming Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 2015.  
[4] World Meteorological Organization. WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018, 2019.  
[5] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC, 2018.  
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