R e s e a r c h a n d O u t l o o k o n  
G l o b a l E n e r g y  
I n t e r c o n n e c t i o n  
( B r i e f V e r s i o n )  
Global Energy Interconnection  
Development and Cooperation Organization  
(GEIDCO)  
Preface  
Energy matters in sustainable human development. Currently, the world is confronted  
with a series of major challenges including resource shortages, climate change,  
environmental pollution, and energy poverty, which stem from human’s heavy dependence  
on and excessive consumption of fossil energy. Dealing with these challenges is an important  
and urgent task to achieving sustainable development for humanity. In essence, the core of  
sustainable development is clean development, of which the key is to promote “Clean  
Replacement” of fossil energy such as solar and wind on the production side, and oil and  
natural gas on the consumption side as “Electricity Replacement” of coal. Global Energy  
Interconnection (GEI) is a modern energy system which is energy-dominated, electricity-  
centered, interconnected and shared. It is an important platform for large-scale exploitation,  
transmission and utilization of clean energy worldwide, promoting the global energy  
transition characterized by cleaning, electrification and networking. GEI will be able to fully  
implement “Agenda 2030” as well as the Paris Agreement, guarantee clean, reliable and  
affordable modern energy for all, and realize comprehensive and coordinated development  
of the economy, society and ecological environment.  
To promote GEI’s facilitation of sustainable human development, the Global Energy  
Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO) has conducted in-  
depth systematic research on Energy Interconnection schemes on the world, continents, key  
regions and countries. This research has extensively and comprehensively analyzed  
statistical data of the global economy, society, energy, power, climate and environment, with  
reference from relevant strategic development plans and policies of various governments, as  
well as research findings from relevant international organizations, research institutions and  
enterprises, according to which, advanced theories, models, methods and tools have been  
established and applied to form a series of research results, namely Global Energy  
Interconnection Backbone Grid, Asia Energy Interconnection, Africa Energy  
Interconnection, Europe Energy Interconnection, North America Energy Interconnection,  
Central and South America Energy Interconnection, and Oceania Energy Interconnection.  
For the first time, systematic and innovative solutions for global energy transition and clean  
low-carbon development have been proposed within these research series. They have filled  
in the research gaps within the global energy and power field and provided strategic  
guidelines for GEI development and Energy Interconnection of all continents, key regions  
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and countries, thus positively contributing to accelerating green energy transition, addressing  
climate change and realizing sustainable human development.  
This study is one of the GEI research series, which focuses on the global response to  
climate change and achieving sustainable development. Based on an in-depth analysis of the  
development of energy interconnection in various continents, this study proposes to build  
the GEI Backbone Grid. The content is divided into 8 chapters. In Chapter 1, the overall  
situation of the global economy, society, resources, environment, energy and power  
development are introduced. In Chapter 2, the development direction and concept of the GEI  
are analyzed. In Chapter 3, with the aim of achieving 2℃ temperature control target, the  
development trend of energy and electricity transition is envisioned, and a corresponding  
scenario is being put forward. In Chapter 4, the distribution of clean energy resources and  
layout of large power generation bases are studied. In Chapter 5, based on power balance  
analysis, the GEI backbone grid plan is proposed. In Chapter 6, the comprehensive benefits  
that are brought about by building GEI are assessed. In Chapter 7, the key technologies for  
the development of GEI are analyzed. In Chapter 8, the clean energy and electricity  
development path and scenario to achieve the 1.5℃ temperature control target are proposed.  
This report could provide guidelines for governments, international organizations,  
energy enterprises, financial institutes, universities and relevant individuals in policy making,  
strategic research, technological innovation, project development, international cooperation,  
etc. However, there might be inadequacies as data and time for research and compilation are  
limited. Comments and suggestions are welcome for further improvements.  
II  
Contents  
Preface..........................................................................................................................I  
Contents .......................................................................................................................I  
1 Challenges of Global Sustainable Development....................................................1  
1.1 Overall Situation of Development...............................................................1  
1.2 Development Challenges.............................................................................5  
2 Global Energy Interconnection ..............................................................................9  
2.1 Concepts for Global Energy Interconnection Development........................9  
2.2 Global Energy Interconnection is a Systematic Program for Sustainable  
Development.............................................................................................................10  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends..............................................................14  
3.1 Energy Demand .........................................................................................14  
3.2 Power Demand ..........................................................................................17  
3.3 Power Supply.............................................................................................19  
4 Development and Layout of Clean Energy Resources .......................................22  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources ...................................................22  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases ..................................................................24  
5 Global Energy Interconnection Backbone Grid .................................................26  
5.1 Power Flow................................................................................................26  
5.2 Overall pattern ...........................................................................................28  
5.3 Inter-continental interconnection channels................................................33  
5.4 Intra-continental grid interconnections......................................................34  
5.5 Key Interconnection Projects.....................................................................36  
5.6 Investment Estimation ...............................................................................43  
6 Comprehensive Benefits ........................................................................................44  
6.1 Economic Benefits.....................................................................................44  
6.2 Social Benefits...........................................................................................44  
6.3 Environmental Benefits .............................................................................45  
6.4 Political Benefits........................................................................................45  
7 Key Technologies for Global Energy Interconnection Development ................47  
7.1 Clean Energy Power Generation Technology............................................47  
7.2 Advanced Power Transmission and Grid Control Technology..................47  
7.3 Large-scale Energy Storage Technology ...................................................49  
7.4 Electricity Replacement Technology.........................................................49  
8 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target..........51  
8.1 Demands of the Times ...............................................................................51  
8.2 Implementation Method ............................................................................51  
8.3 Scenarios....................................................................................................54  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
1 Challenges of Global Sustainable  
Development  
1.1 Overall Situation of Development  
(1) Economy and Society  
The global population has been growing continuously. Across the world, the  
global population has increased from 6.14 billion in 2000 to 7.49 billion1 in 2017, with  
an annual average growth of 1.2%. The world economy has maintained a growing  
trend. Global GDP has increased from 33.6 trillion USD in 2000 to 80 trillion USD in  
20172, growing at an annual average rate of 5.3%. During the same period, the GDP  
per capita has doubled across the world from 5,500 USD to 11,000 USD. The global  
economy is continuing to make heavy adjustments following the global financial crisis  
and the European debt crisis. The economic growth in developed countries is relatively  
slow overall, but shows a steady upward trend in developing countries.  
(2) Energy and Electricity  
Global energy production continues to grow and dominated by fossil fuels.  
From 2000 to 2016, the global energy production increased from 14.3 billion tce to 19.6  
billion tce, with an average annual growth rate of 2.0%3. Energy production per capita  
increased from 2.3 tce to 2.65 tce. Among which, energy production in Asia, Oceania,  
and Central and South America grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of  
3.4%, 3.1%, and 1.7% respectively. The share of global fossil energy production in total  
energy production decreased slightly from 78% to 77%, of which coal, oil and gas  
production increased to 5.2 billion, 5.7 billion, and 4.3 billion tce, accounting for 27%,  
29% and 22% of the total energy production respectively. The annual growth rates of  
coal, oil and gas production from 2000 to 2016 are 3.0%, 1.0% and 2.4% respectively.  
Energy consumption continued to grow, and the share of clean energy  
1 Source: UN Database.  
2 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. The GDP in this report is nominal GDP.  
3 Resource: International Energy Agency, World Energy Balance, 2017.  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
increased steadily. From 2000 to 2016, driven by the world's population growth,  
industrialization, urbanization and other factors, the global primary energy demand  
increased from 14.8 billion tce to 20.4 billion tce1, with an average annual increase rate  
of 2.1%2. Energy consumption per capita increased from 2.4 tce to 2.76 tce. The total  
energy consumption in Asia, Africa and Central and South America maintained rapid  
growth, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3%, 3.1% and 2.4% respectively. The  
growth of energy consumption in North America, Europe and Oceania shows a slowing  
trend. The share of fossil fuels in total primary energy demand fell from 78.3% in 2000  
to 77% in 2016, of which, coal, oil and gas consumption accounted for 25%, 30% and  
22% of the total primary energy. Oil and gas consumption continued to grow, while  
coal consumption fell for the first time in 2015. The share of clean energy consumption  
increased from 21.7% in 2000 to approximately 23% in 2016.  
Figure 1-1 Structure of the Global Primary Energy Demand from 2000 to 2016  
Final energy consumption is dominated by fossil energy, and the total amount  
continued to grow with the share of electric power continuing to rise. From 2000  
to 2016, the global final energy consumption has increased from 10.1 billion tce to 13.7  
billion tce, with an average annual growth rate of about 1.9%. The final energy  
consumption in Asia, Africa and Central and South America maintained rapid growth,  
with an average annual growth rate of 4.0%, 2.9% and 2.1% respectively. In 2016, the  
1
Coverted by the coal consumption per kWh, same for the follows.  
Resource: International Energy Agency, World Energy Balance, 2017.  
2
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
energy consumption of industry, transport and building sectors accounted for 27.8%,  
28.5%, and 35.3% of the global final energy consumption respectively. In 2016, coal,  
oil and gas consumption have increased to 1.48 billion, 5.58 billion, and 2.06 billion  
tce, with a share in total consumption of 11%, 41%, and 15% respectively. From 2000  
to 2016, the share of electric power in final energy consumption increased from 15% to  
19%.  
Figure 1-2 Structure of Global Final Energy Consumption from 2000 to 2016  
Power demand continues to grow steadily, and Asia has become more and  
more prominent in global power consumption. From 2000 to 2016, global electricity  
consumption increased from 14 PWh to 22 PWh, with an average annual growth rate  
of 3.1%; electricity consumption per capita increased from 2,330 kWh to 2,990 kWh.  
Among them, the proportion of electricity consumption in Asia increased from 32% in  
2000 to 49% in 2016, and the proportion of electricity consumption in North America  
and Europe decreased from 32% and 30% to 21% and 21% respectively. Electricity  
consumption per capita in Asia has steadily increased from 1,150 kWh in 2000 to 2,500  
kWh in 2016.  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Figure 1-3 Electricity Consumption of All Continents from 2000 to 20161  
The installed capacity of power supplies continues to grow and thermal power  
dominates among the power supplies. From 2000 to 2016, the global total installed  
capacity increased from 3.5 TW to 6.5 TW, with an average annual growth rate of 4%;  
and the installed capacity per capita increased from 0.57 kW to 0.87 kW. The proportion  
of thermal power installed capacity decreased from 67% to 61%, the proportion of  
hydropower and nuclear power installed capacity decreased from 21% and 9% to 19%  
and 7% respectively, and the proportion of non-water renewable energy power  
generation increased from 3% to 14%. In 2016, global thermal power, nuclear power,  
hydropower, wind power, solar power, and other power supply installed capacities  
accounted for 61%, 6%, 19%, 7%, 4% and 2%. Clean energy installed capacity was  
about 2.5 billion kW, accounting for 39%.  
Figure 1-4 Global Generation Capacity and Total Power Generation from 2000 to  
2016  
1
Source of data: United Nations; International Energy Agency; British Petroleum Corporation; National Bureau  
of Statistics of China.  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Figure 1-5 Global Power Supply Chart  
The scale of global power grids has been increasingly expending that some  
regions have already achieved bulk grid interconnection. Ever since the middle of  
20th century, the scale of global power grids has been increasingly expending. EHV  
AC/DC power grid interconnection systems above 330 kV including North America,  
Europe, Russia-Baltic had formed gradually. The voltage level of AC and DC grids has  
been continuously increased, and China has constructed the ±1100 kV UHV DC  
transmission projects having the highest voltage level in the world.  
1.2 Development Challenges  
The problem of energy and resource shortage is prominent. With an  
unreasonable rate of resource production and consumption, it has resulted in a shortage  
of energy, water and land across the world. For energy resources, according to the  
current exploitation intensity, the remaining found coal, oil and natural gas reserves can  
be exploited for an additional 132 years, 50 years and 51 years respectively. In terms of  
water resources, a report released by the World Resources Institute states that one  
fourth of the world population is now faced with the crisis of “extreme water shortage”,  
which is worsening along with the frequent occurrence of drought resulting from  
climate change. For land resources, soil conditions are deteriorating fast across the  
world due to the impact of industrialization, urbanization and climate change.  
Farmlands and forests around the world are shrinking. In 1990, the global forest area,  
mostly unaffected primeval forest, stood at 4.13 billion hectares with the forest  
coverage reaching 31.6%. The forest area was reduced further to 4.00 billion hectares  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
and covering 30.8% in 20151.  
There is an urgency for a global response to climate change. Global average  
temperature continues to rise. Since the Industrial Revolution, the atmospheric  
greenhouse gas concentration has continued to grow. In 2017, the global average  
temperature was about 1.1℃ higher than the pre-industrial levels. The IPCC report2  
further pointed out that since 1950, extreme high temperatures have generally increased  
in the world, drought in Southern Europe and West Africa has intensified, and some  
regions have experienced a trend of higher intensity and longer drought or flood.  
Climate change has led to a significant increase in global disaster losses. In the past  
decade, the annual economic losses caused by climate-related disasters have reached  
50 billion USD, with 22,000 deaths, and the total economic losses in 2017 reached a  
record of 320 billion USD. Climate disasters have a great impact on low-lying  
developing countries and small island countries, and the economic losses in some small  
island countries accounted for 20% of their GDP.3  
To deal with climate change, there is an urgent need for systematic,  
operational and replicable global emission reduction schemes to enhance national  
mitigation. Since the signing and implementation of the United Nations Framework  
Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter referred to as the “UNFCCC”) in 1992, the  
international communities have increasingly given scientific recognition and reached  
political consensus on climate change, before successively reaching implementation  
agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement  
was signed by 197 contracting parties, of which 184 have submitted their National  
Determined Contributions (NDCs) and put forward their national mitigation targets and  
implementation methods for the years following 2020. As existing Nationally  
Determined Contributions (NDCs) mitigation merely covers approximately one third  
of the emission gap that satisfies the goal to keep the global average temperature rise  
1
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Forest Resources Assessment Report  
2015.  
2
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Managing Extreme Events and  
Disaster Risks and Promoting Climate Change Adaptation, 2012.  
3
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Global Disaster Risk Reduction Assessment Report, 2015.  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
below 2℃, there is still a need for governments of all countries to raise their political  
determination and mitigation targets.  
The global ecological environment is increasingly affected by human activities.  
Since the Industrial Revolution, air pollution, land desertification, water shortage and  
other problems have emerged. In terms of air, every year, about 7 million people die  
from air pollution, accounting for 1/9 of all deaths worldwide. Air pollution is the fourth  
leading cause of human death1. In terms of land, the global desertified land area is  
about 36 million square km, accounting for 1/4 of the total land area, affecting 16% of  
the global agricultural land, and the annual crop losses are estimated at USD 42 billion2.  
Desertification has resulted in a large reduction of available land area and soil  
productivity, seriously threatening human production and life. In terms of water  
resources, only 0.4% of the world's water resource is available for human use, and  
about 2 billion people are facing the problem of water shortage.  
The problems of uneven economic development, lack of electricity, poverty  
and health remain severe. Firstly, there are huge gaps between countries in the  
world in terms of development. For example, the GDP per capita exceeded 40,000  
USD in the OECD countries, but stood at only 1,570 USD in the sub-Saharan African  
regions (excluding high-income countries) 3 . The income gap within countries is  
widening. In Europe, the income of top 10% wealthiest people accounted for 33.8% of  
the gross national income in 2016. The proportion was 47.1%, 47.5%, 54.4% and 61%  
in North America, Asia, the sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East respectively in the  
same year. Secondly, the issue of poverty remains salient. The average economic  
growth rate has consistently been lower than 5% in the least developed countries over  
the past three years and failed to attain the target of 7% under the 2030 sustainable  
development goals. The global population living under the international poverty line  
totals to 730 million4. Moreover, multi-dimensional poverty is still common in the  
1
Data sources: International Energy Agency, Energy and Air Pollution, 2016.  
Data Sources: Zhu Yuan, International Environmental Policy and Governance, 2015.  
Source: The World Bank.  
2
3
4
Source: The World Bank sets the international poverty line at a level where the daily consumer expenditure is  
less than 1.9 USD (2011 PPP).  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
developing countries, pushing the number of people in the world in multi-dimensional  
poverty up to 1.56 billion. People who live in multi-dimensional poverty are widely  
spread across the developing countries and the number is still increasing. Thirdly,  
there is a serious lack of electricity. Presently, there are 840 million or so people who  
live across more than 100 countries or regions in the world have no access to electricity.  
Moreover, around 3 billion people are still relying on unclean power like wood, coal  
and charcoal for cooking and heating. Fourthly, human’s physical health is under  
threat. 90% of the global population is living in an environment where the air quality  
falls below the safety standards set by the World Health Organization. Air pollution has  
become the fourth largest cause of human death, killing around 6.5 million people every  
year1. A lack of clean water has directly resulted in the death of 870,000 people across  
the world in 2012. Contaminated water undermines human’s physical health by causing  
diseases. For example, around 58% of the diarrhea cases have been caused by a lack of  
clean drinking water and sanitation facilities2.  
1
Data source: International Energy Agency’s Energy and Air Pollution report.  
Data source: United Nations Environmental Programme’s Towards a Pollution-free Planet report.  
2
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
2 Global Energy Interconnection  
2.1 Concepts for Global Energy Interconnection  
Development  
The fundamental direction of global energy interconnection development is:  
Two replacements. Clean replacement will be implemented in energy production,  
where fossil energy is replaced by clean energy such as water, solar and wind energy.  
Electricity replacement will be implemented in the energy consumption, where coal,  
oil, gas and diesel are replaced by clean electricity. One improvement. Improvement  
in the level of electrification and energy efficiency, increase in the proportion of electric  
energy in final energy consumption, and reduction in energy consumption on the  
premise of ensuring energy consumption needs. One restoration. Fossil energy is  
restored to be used mainly as the traditional industrial raw material and secondary  
material, in order to provide more value and play a bigger role in the economic and  
social development. One conversion. Electricity, carbon dioxide, water and other  
substances will be converted into hydrogen, methane, methanol and other fuels and raw  
materials to solve the resource shortage and meet the needs of human sustainable  
development.  
The core requirements of global energy interconnection development are:  
Clean energy domination. Energy system is undergoing a transition towards green,  
low-carbon and sustainable development. Clean energy gradually replaces fossil energy  
and becomes the main source of energy. Electricity centralization. With the gradual  
reduction in the use of fossil energy, the future energy system will be the electrical  
system. On the platform of power grid, all kinds of primary energy are transformed into  
power, which is efficiently transmitted to all kinds of end users. Interconnection. As  
the distribution of clean energy resources in the world is uneven, it means that a wide  
range of optimized configuration in the development of clean energy needs to be carried  
out. Therefore, technical advantages of UHV and smart grid should be harnessed, and  
cross-border, inter-regional and inter-continental interconnected power grids should be  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
built, thus promoting the formation of the overall pattern of interconnection of global  
power grids and realizing the globalization of energy production, allocation and trade.  
Co-construction and sharing. Building GEI is not only a cause that can benefit all  
mankind, it is also a grand systematic project. Sustainable energy needs to be built for  
all so that mankind can share the fruits of development through collective wisdom and  
the gathered strength of all parties.  
The basic composition of global energy interconnection development is: The  
essence of building GEI is the holistic construction of “smart grid + UHV grid +  
clean energy”, where smart grid is the foundation, UHV grid is the key and clean  
energy is the source. Smart grid. By integrating modern intelligent technologies such  
as advanced transmission, intelligent control, new energy access and new energy  
storage, it can adapt to all kinds of clean energy grid connection and absorption, meet  
the needs of various kinds of intelligent power equipment access and interactive  
services and realize the coordinated development of source, network, load and storage,  
multi-energy complementarity and efficient utilization. UHV power grid. It is  
composed of 1000 kV AC and ±800 and ±1100 kV DC systems, with significant  
advantages such as long transmission distance, large capacity, high efficiency, low loss,  
reduces land occupation and provides good security. It can realize thousands-of-km and  
tens-of-millions-of-kilowatt class power transmission and interconnection of  
transnational and transcontinental power grids. Clean energy. With the advancement  
and cost reduction of conversion technologies such as water, wind and solar energy, the  
competitiveness of clean energy will surpass fossil energy in an all-rounded way,  
accelerate the replacement process of fossil energy and become main source of energy  
in the future energy system.  
2.2 Global Energy Interconnection is a Systematic Program  
for Sustainable Development  
GEI is a modern energy system built to realize the global production,  
allocation and utilization of clean energy. Constructing GEI will promote a  
fundamental change in the pattern of energy production and consumption, and drive  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
global energy restructuring, layout optimization and efficiency improvement. It is a  
global solution that will encourage cleaner energy production, coordinate the  
development of all kinds of centralized and distributed clean energy, realize the  
transition of energy production from fossil energy to clean energy, promote the  
electrification of energy consumption, improve the power penetration rate and energy  
accessibility, realize the transformation of energy consumption from coal, oil and gas  
to electricity-centered, allow everyone to enjoy clean, safe, cheap and efficient modern  
energy, ensure populations have access to electricity, promote wide-area energy  
allocation, build a transnational, inter-regional and cross-continental clean energy  
efficient transmission platform, and realize the transformation of localized to  
transnational, cross-continental and global energy allocation.  
GEI is the fundamental strategy to cope with climate change and achieve the  
goal of temperature control. GEI provides a technically feasible, economically sound,  
operational, statistical and transparent system solution for the world to tackle climate  
change and implementing the Paris Agreement. During the course of GEI construction,  
replacement of carbon-based energy with clean electricity can be promoted to  
accelerate the process of realizing global carbon emission reduction goals, help  
countries accelerate economic development and decouple carbon emissions, and  
comprehensively implement the core targets of the ParisAgreement, such as mitigation,  
adaptation, finance, technology, capacity-building and transparency.  
GEI is an effective way to control environmental pollution and build a  
beautiful world. Constructing GEI will fundamentally change the traditional way of  
energy development by using materials that are highly toxic and give high emissions,  
which can significantly reduce pollution and the deterioration of environment caused  
by the use of fossil energy in the course of production, transportation and utilization,  
improve the quality of ecological environment by energy transformation, promote the  
harmonious coexistence of human and nature, and coordinate the development of  
energy and environment. Replacement of clean energy can help to reduce the pollution  
of fossil energy sources and control the rise in temperature, and greatly reduce the  
emissions of greenhouse gases and the release of waste gases, waste water and waste  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
residues during the process of fossil energy development and utilization. The  
replacement with electrical energy can promote the rational use and comprehensive  
protection of natural resources and create an energy consumption structure based on  
electricity, in order to save and protect water resources, land resources and forest  
resources, and promote the sustainable development of natural resources. In order to  
promote long-distance and large-scale optimal allocation of clean energy resources  
through interconnection, it is necessary to avoid senseless energy development and  
utilization in ecologically fragile areas, integrate power demand through  
interconnection, and maximize the reduction of ecological environment damage.  
GEI is a powerful engine to promote technological and industrial innovation  
as well as high-quality development of the global economy. By integrating advanced  
technologies in energy, power, cloud computing, big data, Internet of Things and  
artificial intelligence, GEI promotes the integration and development of energy,  
information and transportation networks, accelerate the cultivation of new industries  
and new business models, and drive the transformation of traditional industrial  
economy into a new network, digital and shared economy through innovation. At the  
same time, GEI promotes electricity trade to become the main type of world energy  
trade, promote the development of energy and electricity finance, deepen the integration  
of energy and electricity industry and financial capital, and stimulate new momentum  
into economic globalization.  
GEI is an important platform for addressing poverty and health problems  
and achieving even development between regions. Building GEI can help  
undeveloped areas transform the advantages of clean energy resources into economic  
advantages, effectively reducing the number of people in poverty, and achieving an  
inclusive global growth and collective prosperity. By popularizing electric power,  
reducing environmental pollution and improving the living environment, humans can  
enjoy cleaner air, water and food, better medical services and healthier life. It can help  
to reduce conflicts that are fossil energy related, enhance mutual trust between countries  
and promote peaceful development of the world. By building a green, low-carbon,  
interconnected and shared energy community, GEI will help to strengthen cooperation  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
among countries in the fields of energy transformation, climate change, environmental  
protection and others, and build a new pattern of peaceful, inclusive and win-win global  
cooperation.  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends  
3.1 Energy Demand  
(1) Findings on the Overall Development  
The global economy is developing steadily and rapidly. It is estimated that the  
global economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.8% from 2020 to 2050 and  
reach USD 208 trillion in 2050. Main sources of energy shifts from high carbon to  
low carbon. The development of the global energy system is showing a trend of  
“decarbonization”. From 2000 to 2016, the wind power and solar power generation  
installed capacities have increased by 25 and 483 times respectively. The increase in  
renewable energy generation accounted for more than half of the newly added power  
demand. Renewable energy had the largest newly added generation installed capacity.  
Energy consumption is transiting from fossil energy dominated to electricity  
dominated. The economic value of a unit of electric power is equivalent to 17.3 times  
that of coal and 3.2 times that of oil. The share of electric power in final energy  
consumption has increased by more than 10% from 1971 to 2016, successively  
surpassing that of coal, heat and natural gases. Energy allocation shifts from regional  
balance to global deployment. The global deployment of power systems is an  
important indicator for the transformation and upgrading of energy system, avoiding  
the risks of high loss, heavy pollution and low levels of safety during the long-distance  
transportation and storage of fossil energy. With the development of revolutionary  
energy technologies such as UHV transmission and smart grid, the scale of cross-border  
power interconnection continues to expand, and the formation of global interconnected  
power grid will accelerate.  
(2) Energy demand outlook  
Global primary energy demand continues to grow, and the growth tends to  
be slow. Converted by coal consumption per kWh, the global primary energy demand  
in 2035 and 2050 will reach 24.5 billion tce and 26.2 billion tce respectively. The  
average annual growth rate is 0.7% from 2016 to 2050, of which the rate is about 1%  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
from 2016 to 2035 and about 0.4% from 2035 to 2050. The increment of global  
primary energy demand is mainly contributed by Asia. From 2016 to 2050, Asia's  
primary energy demand is expected to rise by 57%, from 9.5 billion tce to 14.9 billion  
tce, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3%. Asia's share in global primary energy  
demand continues to increase, from 46% to 57%. The primary energy demand in Africa  
and Central & South America will increase by 1.4 billion tce and 620 million tce, with  
an average annual growth rate of 2.3% and 1.3% respectively. The growth of the  
primary energy demand in developed regions continues to slow down and even  
showing negative growth. In Europe, North America and Oceania, the primary energy  
demands in 2050 are expected to decrease by 1.08 billion, 560 million and 0.1 billion  
tce respectively, with a decrease of 25%, 14% and 5% compared to the level in 2016.  
The global energy intensity will decrease sharply and the developed regions will  
see a huge decline. From 2016 to 2050, the global energy consumption per unit of GDP  
will drop by 48% from 2.7 tce per USD 10,000 to 1.4 tce per USD 10,000 with an  
average annual decline of 1.9%. Global primary energy demand per capita remains  
stable with developed regions showing relatively high statistics. from 2016 to 2050,  
the global primary energy demand per capita will remain at around 2.7 tce.  
The main direction to optimize the global energy structure is to develop clean  
energy as the dominant source of energy. Around 2025, the total demand of global  
fossil energy will reach its peak before declining year by year. The global coal demand  
will peak around 2025, reaching about 5.4 billion tce, before declining to 1.79 billion  
tce in 2050, accounting for 6.3% of the total global primary energy demand. Global oil  
demand will peak at around 2030, reaching about 6.5 billion tce. After which, the share  
of oil in the total energy structure will decrease continuously and fall to 10.4% in 2050.  
Global demand for natural gas will reach a peak of about 4.9 billion tce in 2040 before  
slowly declining. In 2050, gas demand will be at 3.71 billion tce. The share of clean  
energy in primary energy will increase from 24% in 2016 to 70%1 in 2050. Before  
2040, the share of clean energy will exceed the share of fossil energy and become the  
1
When calculating the share of clean energy in total primary energy, the fossil energy that is used for non-energy  
purposes will not be considered. Same for the follows.  
15  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
main primary energy.  
Figure 3-1 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Categories  
Global final energy consumption will peak around 2040. From 2016 to 2040,  
the global final energy consumption will grow steadily from 13.7 billion tce to 16.2  
billion tce with an average annual growth rate of about 0.7%. In 2050, the global final  
energy consumption will fall to 15.7 billion tce with an average annual decline of 0.3%  
between 2040 and 2050. From 2016 to 2050, the average annual growth rate of final  
energy will be about 0.5%.  
The final consumption of fossil energy will drop significantly. From 2016 to  
2050, the share of fossil energy in final energy consumption will fall from 63% to 24%.  
The final coal consumption will peak in 2025, reaching about 1.7 billion tce, before  
falling by 63% to 550 million tce in 2050. The final oil consumption will remain stable  
from 2020 to 2035 at around 5.8 billion tce. Thereafter, the consumption will fall rapidly  
to 3 billion tce in 2050 accounting for a decrease of 47% compared to the consumption  
in 2016. After the final natural gas consumption reaches its peak in 2040, it will drop  
to about 1.4 billion tce in 2050, accounting for a decrease of about 34% from level in  
2016. The basic trend of the global final energy structure will be electricity-  
centered and the share of electricity will increase significantly. The share of electric  
power in the total final energy consumption is expected to increase from 21% in 2016  
to 54%1 in 2050, and in around 2035, electric power will surpass oil and become the  
1
When calculating the share of electric power in total final energy consumption, the fossil energy that used for  
16  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
dominant source of energy in the final energy structure.  
Figure 3-2 Final Energy Consumption by Fuels  
3.2 Power Demand  
(1) Overall development  
With the global economic recovery, steady population growth, continuous  
technological advancement and rapid implementation of “Two Replacements”, the  
global power demand will generally grow steadily at a high pace in the future.  
Among which, Asia will become an important power demand center in the world,  
relying on the industrialization, the accelerated and promoted urbanization, and the  
deepening of green and low-carbon development of the developing countries.  
Meanwhile, the power demand of Europe will grow steadily, by relying on the  
Electricity Replacement in the transport and heating/cooling sectors, big data center  
construction and rapid development of the information technology industry. Africa will  
rely on the joint development of multiple sectors including electricity, mineral,  
metallurgy, industry and trade to achieve rapid economic growth and accelerate the  
process of electrification and urbanization. The number of people with no electricity  
access will be significantly reduced and the demand for electricity will grow by leaps  
and bounds. The power demand of the North America will also grow steadily, by  
relying on the development of manufacturing and the development of advanced  
non-energy use purpose will not be counted. Same for the follows.  
17  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
manufacturing technologies such as smart machines, the replacement by electricity in  
transport sectors such as electric vehicles, the rapid development of information  
technology, the construction of large-scale data centers and the acceleration of  
industrialization in Mexico. Central and South America will rely on re-  
industrialization, which will promote the rapid development of traditional industries  
and technology-intensive emerging industries, while the electrification of the transport  
sector will promote the development of the entire industrial chain of electric vehicles,  
the further improvement of the electrification level of various industries, the upgrading  
of the residents’ living consumption and the continuous growth of power consumption.  
Meanwhile, Oceania will mainly promote the Electricity Replacement in the transport  
sector.  
(2) Power demand outlook  
It is estimated that by 2035, the global electricity consumption will reach 44 PWh,  
and the average annual growth rate will be 3.66% from 2016 to 2035. By 2050, the  
global electricity consumption will have reached 62 PWh with an average annual  
growth rate of 2.25%. The global electricity consumption per capita will have increased  
from 2,990 kWh in 2016 to 6,300 kWh in 2050.  
Asia's position as a global power load center will become more prominent.  
From 2010 to 2016, Asia's electricity consumption grew at an average annual rate of  
4.7%, about three times the annual average growth rate of global electricity  
consumption, and its power demand accounted for 49% of the global demand. It is  
estimated that the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption in Asia will be  
4.42% from 2016 to 2035. It will reach 24.9 PWh, which accounts for 57% of the total  
global power demand. From 2035 to 2050, the increase in electricity consumption will  
further be reduced to 2.53%, and the electricity consumption will reach 36.3 PWh,  
accounting for 60% of the global total.  
Power demand is growing rapidly in Africa, Central and South America  
where the increase in electricity consumption will be highest in the world. TThe  
growth rate of power demand in Africa and Central and South America will reach 6.92%  
18  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
and 4.92% respectively in 2016 and 2035, and the electricity consumption will increase  
to 2.27 PWh and 2.65 PWh. From 2035 to 2050, Africa's electricity consumption will  
continue to grow rapidly with an average annual growth rate of electricity consumption  
of 3.79%, and the electricity consumption in 2050 will reach 3.97 PWh. The annual  
average growth rate of electricity consumption in Central and South America will fall  
to 2.49%. In 2050, the electricity consumption will reach 3.83 PWh.  
In Europe, North America and Oceania, the electricity consumption level per  
capita will be high and the electricity replacement in sectors such as rail transit,  
electric vehicles, and clean heating will result in high power demand. It is estimated  
that by 2050, the number of vehicles will have reached 300 million and 250 million  
respectively, where 80% of which will be replaced by electric vehicles. The growth rate  
of mid and long-term power demand in Europe, Oceania and North America is expected  
to remain between 1% and 3%.  
Figure 3-3 Global and Sub-continental Power Demand Forecast  
3.3 Power Supply  
(1) Overall Development  
With the rapid development of clean energy power generation technology and  
the significant reduction in power generation costs, clean energy power generation  
will gradually replace fossil energy power generation as the dominant power  
source. As the development and utilization cost of fossil energy and the demand for  
low-carbon, clean and safe energy increases, the cost of internal and external input of  
19  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
traditional fossil energy utilization will increase. The scaling effect of clean energy is  
becoming more and more prominent, where its cost will continue to decrease. The  
LCOE of hydropower will be largely be maintained at 4 US cents/kWh, while in some  
areas with abundant water resources such as the Congo River Basin, it will be kept as  
low as 3 US cents/kWh. The LCOE of Offshore wind power, onshore wind power,  
photovoltaics and concentrating solar power all show a downward trend, which will  
have fallen to 5.5, 2.6, 1.5, and 5.3 cents/kWh by 2050. It is expected that the  
competitiveness of photovoltaic and onshore wind power will have surpassed coal  
power and gas power by 2025.  
Figure 3-4 LCOE of Global Clean Energy1  
(2) Power supply outlook  
It is estimated that by 2030, the proportion of clean energy installed capacity  
will have exceeded that of fossil energy. By 2035, the global installed capacity will  
have been 16.3 TW with clean energy installed capacity accounting for 73%,  
among which wind power is 23%, solar power is 30%, hydropower is 14%, nuclear  
power is 3%, and biomass, geothermal and others is 3%. Meanwhile, the installed per  
capita will have reached 1.8 kW. The global power generation capacity will be 45  
PWh with clean energy power generation accounting for 65%, among which wind  
power is 17%, solar power is 20%, hydropower is 16%, nuclear power is 8%, and  
biomass, geothermal and others is 4%.  
In 2050, the global installed capacity will be 26 TW with clean energy installed  
1
Data for 2010 and 2015 are from WEC and IRENA.  
20  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
accounting for 84%, among which wind power is 26%, solar power is 42%,  
hydropower is 11%, nuclear power is 2%, and biomass, geothermal and others is 3%.  
Meanwhile, the installed per capita will have reached 2.7 kW. The global power  
generation capacity will be 63 PWh with clean energy power generation  
accounting for 81%, among which 23% is wind power, 32% is solar power, 15% is  
hydropower, 6% is nuclear power, and 5% is biomass, geothermal and others.  
Global coal-fired power installations will peak around 2030. In 2016, the  
global installed capacity of coal-fired power was 2.08 TW, and by 2030, the net increase  
will have been 310 million kW, which will basically be at its peak (new coal-fired  
generating units are mainly in Asia). Subsequently, coal power will gradually decrease  
to 1.8 TW in 2035 and 1.3 TW in 2050.  
Figure 3-5 Global Power Generation Installed Capacity, Electricity Generation and  
Structure  
21  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
4 Development and Layout of Clean Energy  
Resources  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources  
The theoretical potential of global hydropower resources is about 39 PWh/year,  
of which, Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, Central and South America, and  
Oceania account for 47%, 11%, 6%, 14%, 20% and 2% respectively.  
Table 4-1 Global Hydropower Resources1  
Theoretical potential  
Region  
Global share (%)  
(PWh/year)  
18.31  
4.40  
Asia  
Africa  
Europe  
47  
11  
6
2.41  
North America  
Central and South America  
Oceania  
5.51  
7.77  
0.65  
14  
20  
2
World  
30.95  
/
The global wind energy resources are abundant, and the annual average wind  
speed ranges from 2 to 14 m/s at the height of 100 m above the ground. Many regions  
have an annual wind speed higher than 7 m/s, and the best wind speed is mainly  
distributed in Greenland, Denmark, eastern of North America, southern of South  
America, northern Europe, northern Africa and southern Oceania. The theoretical  
potential of global wind energy resources are about 2,040 PWh/year, of which Asia,  
Africa, Europe, North America, Central and South America, and Oceania account for  
25%, 32%, 7%, 21%, 11% and 5% respectively.  
1
Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy interconnection, 2015; World Energy Council, 2016 World Energy  
Resources: Hydropower; International Hydropower and Dam Magazine, World Atlas and Industry Guide;  
International Hydropower and Dam Magazine, 2018.  
22  
   
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Figure 4-1 Distribution of Global Annual Average Wind Speed  
Table 4-2 Global Wind Energy Resources1  
Theoretical potential  
Region  
Global share (%)  
(PWh/year)  
500  
Asia  
Africa  
Europe  
25  
32  
7
650  
150  
North America  
Central and South America  
Oceania  
420  
220  
100  
21  
11  
5
World  
2040  
/
Solar energy is remarkably rich around the world. The annual global horizontal  
irradiance (GHI) ranges from 700 kWh/m2 to 2,700 kWh/m2. The areas with the GHI  
more than 2000 kWh/m2 include the sub-SaharanAfrica region, the southwesternAfrica,  
Asia and the Middle East, the southern North America, the southwestern South America  
and the northern Oceania. The theoretical potential of global solar energy resources is  
about 150,000 PWh/year, of which, Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, Central and  
South America, and Oceania account for 25%, 40%, 2%, 10%, 8% and 15%  
respectively.  
1
Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy interconnection, 2015; IRENA, Renewable Energy Statistics 2018 National  
Laboratory for Renewable Energy, 2016 Offshore Wind Energy Resource Assessment for the United States.  
23  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Figure 4-2 Diagram of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI)  
Table 4-3 Global Solar Resources1  
theoretical potential  
Region  
Global share (%)  
(PWh /year)  
37,500  
60,000  
3,000  
Asia  
Africa  
Europe  
25  
40  
2
North America  
Central and South America  
Oceania  
15,000  
12,000  
22,500  
150,000  
10  
8
15  
/
World  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases  
According to the hydro energy resource distribution and consumption schemes of  
global hydro energy, the development timing of the major large-scale hydropower bases  
is proposed. There are 15 large-scale hydropower bases to be developed globally, with  
the total installed capacity of 880 GW before 2035 and 1.3 TW before 2050.  
Figure 4-3 Distribution and Installed Capacity of the Global Large Hydropower  
According to the wind resource distribution and consumption schemes of global  
1
Liu Zhenya, Global Energy interconnection, 2015.  
24  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
wind energy, the development timing of major large-scale wind power bases is  
proposed. There are 16 large-scale wind power bases to be developed globally, with  
the total installed capacity of 900 GW before 2035 and 1.5 TW before 2050.  
Figure 4-4 Distribution and Installed Capacity of the Global Large Wind Power  
Bases  
According to the resource distribution and consumption schemes of global solar  
energy, the development timing of major large-scale solar power bases is proposed.  
There are 9 large-scale wind power bases to be developed globally, with the total  
installed capacity of 1.7 TW before 2035 and 3.8 TW before 2050.  
Figure 4-5 Distribution and Installed Capacity of the Global Large Solar Power  
Bases  
25  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
5 Global Energy Interconnection Backbone  
Grid  
5.1 Power Flow  
Before 2035, the global power flow will be dominated by cross-border power  
exchange across continents, and inter-continental power exchange will begin. By 2035,  
the global inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach a total of 280  
GW, of which, 50 GW will be inter-continental. The inter-continental power flow  
mainly run from the North Africa solar energy bases, the Central Asian clean energy  
bases and the West Asia solar power bases to Europe; and from the West Asia solar  
power bases to North Africa Egypt.  
By 2050, clean energy bases will have entered a large-scale development stage,  
forming a globally optimal allocation of clean energy, multi-energy complementation,  
and cross-time-zone mutual support. In 2050, the total inter-continental and inter-  
regional power flow in the world will reach 620 GW, of which, the inter-continental  
power will be 130 GW. The inter-continental power flow will mainly run from North  
Africa solar power bases, Central Asian clean energy bases and West Asia’s solar power  
bases to Europe.  
Figure 5-1 Schematic Diagram of Global Power Flow Pattern in 2050  
26  
   
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
The Asia power flow will generally exhibit the pattern of “transmitting power  
from the West to the East and from the North to the South”, and Asia will be  
interconnected to the continents of Europe, Africa and Oceania. In 2050, the total  
inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach 200 GW, of which, the inter-  
continental power flow will be 47 GW.  
The Europe power flow will generally exhibit the pattern of “sending power  
from the North to the South within the continent and receiving power from Asia  
and Africa inter-continentally”. In 2050, the total inter-continental and inter-regional  
power flow will reach 130 GW, of which, the inter-continental power flow will be 75  
GW and the inter-regional power flow will be 58 GW.  
The Africa power flow will generally exhibit the pattern of “sending power  
from the Central region to the North and South within the continent, and  
providing mutual power support to Asia and Europe inter-continentally”. In 2050,  
the total inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach 140 GW, of which,  
the inter-continental power flow will be 54 GW and the inter-regional power flow will  
be 87 GW.  
The North America power flow will generally exhibit the pattern of “sending  
power from the North to the South, from the Central region to the East and the  
West within the continent, and providing mutual power support to the Central  
and South America inter-continentally”. In 2050, the total inter-continental and inter-  
regional power flow will reach 74 GW, of which, the inter-continental power flow will  
be 10 GW and the cross-border power flow will be 66 GW.  
The Central and South America power flow will generally exhibit the pattern  
of “sending the northern hydropower to the South, sending the southern wind  
power to the East and the North, sending the western solar power to the East  
within the continent, and providing mutual power support to North America inter-  
continentally”. In 2050, the total inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will  
reach 73 GW, of which, the inter-continental power flow will be 10 GW and the cross-  
border power flow will be 63 GW.  
The Oceania power flow will generally exhibit the pattern of “providing  
27  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
mutual hydropower and solar power support from the North to the South, and to  
Southeast Asia inter-continentally”. In 2050, the total inter-continental and cross-  
border power flow will reach 60 GW, of which, the inter-continental power flow will  
be 40 GW and the cross-border power flow will be 20 GW.  
5.2 Overall pattern  
With considerations on the resource endowment, energy & power demand,  
and climate & environmental requirements, the “nine horizontal and nine vertical”  
backbone grid of GEI will be constructed based on the national main grids and  
cross-border interconnection. Large-scale clean energy bases and load centers will  
be interconnected to achieve clean energy resource allocation globally across  
different time zones and seasons, providing mutual power support and backup.  
The “nine horizontal and nine vertical” backbone grid includes Asia-Europe-  
Africa’s “four horizontal, six vertical” channels, America’s “four horizontal, three  
vertical” interconnection channels and the Arctic energy interconnection channels.  
Nine Horizontal Channels:  
The Asia-Europe North Horizontal Channel interconnects countries such as  
China, Kazakhstan, Germany, France, and delivers clean energy from Central Asia to  
Europe and China. Together with the UHV main grid of China, clean energy is further  
delivered to Northeast Asia to provide inter-continental power support. The channel  
length is 10,000 km.  
The Asia-Europe South Horizontal Channel interconnects Southeast Asia,  
South Asia, West Asia and South Europe, and delivers solar power from the West and  
Central Asia to load centers in Southeast Europe and South Asia through the UHV DC.  
The channel also delivers hydropower from Southeast Asia and China to South Asia.  
The channel length is 9,000 km.  
The Asia-Africa North Horizontal Channel interconnects clean energy bases in  
Southeast Asia, South Asia and West Asia and North Africa. The channel delivers solar  
power from the West Asia to Egypt and further delivers to Morocco by the 1,000 kV  
UHV AC. The channel length is 9,500 km.  
The Asia-Africa South Horizontal Channel interconnects hydropower bases of  
28  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
the Congo River, the Nile, and solar power bases of West Asia to provide mutual power  
support between the African hydropower and the West Asia’s solar power. The channel  
length is 6,000 km.  
The North America North Horizontal Channel interconnects the grids in eastern  
and western Canada to improve power exchange capabilities, receives the Arctic wind  
power and delivers to the load centers in eastern Canada. The channel length is 4,500  
km.  
The North America South Horizontal Channel gathers the western American  
solar power, central American wind power and the Mississippi River hydropower, and  
delivers to load centers in New York, Washington and western America. The channel  
length is 5,000 km.  
The South America North Horizontal Channel interconnects the northern  
countries such as Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, French Guyana, and Surinam to  
strengthen the interconnection and power exchange capabilities. The channel length is  
3,500 km.  
The South America South Horizontal Channel gathers Peru and Bolivia’s  
hydropower along the Amazon River, along with Chile’s solar power, and delivers to  
load centers in southeastern Brazil. The channel length is 3,000 km.  
The Arctic Energy Interconnection Channel begins in Norway in North Europe,  
crosses Russia and Bering Strait and stretches all the way to Alaska. The channel  
crosses 19 time zones and connects 80% power grids of north hemisphere with a length  
of 8,000 km. The channel achieves mutual power support and backup between  
continents in an intensive manner.  
Nine Vertical Channels:  
The Europe-Africa West Vertical Channel crosses Iceland, Great Britain, France,  
Spain, Morocco, West Africa and South Africa, and delivers the Greenland and North  
Sea’s wind power to Continental Europe; and the Congo River’s hydropower to the  
North and South Africa. The North African solar power and Central African  
hydropower are jointly delivered to the load centers in Europe. The channel length is  
15,000 km.  
The Europe-Africa Central Vertical Channel interconnects the Arctic wind  
29  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
power bases, the North European hydropower bases and the North African solar power  
bases, crosses countries including Germany, Austria, Italy, and extends southward to  
Tunisia. The channel length is 4,500 km.  
Europe-Africa East Vertical Channel begins from the Barents Sea shore, crosses  
Russia, Baltic, Ukraine, Balkan Peninsula, Cyprus, Egypt and East Africa to South  
Africa, and delivers the Arctic and Baltic wind power to Europe, and the Nile’s  
hydropower to the North and South Africa. The Nile hydropower and Egypt solar and  
wind power are jointly delivered to the Continental Europe. The channel length is  
14,000 km.  
The Asia West Vertical Channel interconnects the solar power bases of Central  
Asia and West Asia and Siberia hydropower bases, gathers multiple forms of energy via  
the Central Asia synchronous grid, and extends to the Arctic Kara Sea’s wind power  
bases. The channel length is 5,500 km.  
The Asia Central Channel interconnects the Russian hydropower bases, solar and  
wind power bases of northwestern China, and hydropower bases of southwestern China,  
and delivers to the load centers in South Asia through the UHV DC. The channel length  
is 6,500 km.  
The Asia East Vertical Channel (Asia-Pacific Channel) interconnects Russia,  
China, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia via China and the UHV grids in Southeast Asia,  
and delivers the clean energy power of Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia to  
the load centers, in order to provide power support during the seasons, connect the  
Arctic wind power bases and extend the channel to Australia in the future. The channel  
length is 15,000 km.  
The America West Vertical Channel connects the Arctic wind power bases, and  
constructs a synchronous UHV AC grid around Vancouver, located in the west coast of  
the U.S., and Mexico. The channel enables efficient utilization of the Canadian  
hydropower, the U.S. and Mexico’s solar and wind power, and interconnects the  
northern South America’s grids through Central America by the UHV DC. This channel  
extends southward to Chile and enables mutual power support between the North  
American solar power and South American hydropower. The channel length is 15,000  
km.  
30  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
The America Central Vertical Channel begins from Manitoba in Canada,  
crosses the North Dakota and Texas in the U.S., and further extends to Mexico City to  
form the main UHV vertical channel. The channel collects northern Canada’s  
hydropower and the central U.S.’s wind power to provide mutual power support with  
multiple forms of energy and cover a wide area of clean energy allocation between the  
northern and the southern regions. The channel length is 4,000 km.  
The America East Vertical Channel starts from Quebec in Canada, crosses the  
eastern coast of the U.S. to Florida, forming a main UHV AC vertical channel. This  
channel connects the northern Canada’s hydropower, western U.S.’s solar power and  
central U.S.’s wind power, traverses across the Caribbean grids, and connects the  
northern South America grids. This channel further extends to Argentina to provide  
mutual power support with multiple forms of energy and covers a wide area of clean  
energy allocation between the northern and the southern regions, as well as connects  
the Greenland wind power and hydropower. The channel length is 16,000 km.  
Figure 5-2 Schematic Diagram of the Overall Pattern of the GEI Backbone Grid  
According to the overall vision of the GEI backbone grid, by 2035, the world will  
have built the “five horizontal and five vertical” interconnection channels through  
coordinating the energy interconnection development in all continents, taking the long-  
term and short-term construction goals into account, and developing realistic  
construction plan and implementation schedule. Asia, Europe, Africa will first be inter-  
31  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
continentally interconnected, exchanging 280 GW of inter-continental and inter-  
regional power flow. From 2035 to 2050, the inter-regional and inter-continental  
interconnection channels will be further strengthened and improved. By 2050, the  
world will have built “seven horizontal and seven vertical” interconnection channels,  
and will have basically constructed the GEI backbone grid, achieving the new pattern  
of global clean energy development, allocation and utilization. The total inter-  
continental and inter-regional power flow will be 720 GW.  
32  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
5.3 Inter-continental interconnection channels  
(1) Asia-Europe Interconnection Channels  
The Asia-Europe interconnection can achieve the efficient delivery of electricity  
from large clean energy bases and providing power support of various energy resources  
in North Europe, Central Asia and West Asia, thereby meeting the power demand,  
realizing power complementation and reducing the peak-valley load gap by 30-40%.  
(2) Asia-Europe-Africa Interconnection Channels  
Large-scale development of clean energy and efficient utilization can be used to  
achieve “multi-energy complementation of wind, solar and hydro and mutual support  
of inter-continental power” and meet the needs of load centers development. The Asia-  
Europe-Africa interconnection can achieve complementarity between Central Africa  
hydropower and North Africa solar power, which will be helpful for the efficient  
utilization of power according to the differences in the characteristics of energy  
resources and loads in the North Africa and European countries. Asia-Europe-Africa  
interconnection can enable seasonal complementarity between the East Africa and  
South Africa to increase the utilization efficiency of the hydropower delivery channel.  
(3) North America-Central and South America  
Interconnection Channels  
The transition of using clean and low-carbon energy will be promoted through  
coordinating efforts to optimize the allocation of clean energy resources and meet the  
regional power demand of achieving sustainable economic and social development. The  
North America-Central America-South America interconnection will achieve the  
temporal and spatial energy complementarity. Grid interconnection can reduce seasonal  
installed capacity by 20 GW and address the uneven power generation levels of  
different regions. The utilization hours of the 10 GW North America-Central America-  
South America UHV DC channel will reach 4,440 hours in 2050 through bidirectional  
power exchange.  
There is good seasonal complementarity between the wind power of Argentina,  
solar power of Chile and hydropower of Brazil, which will bring significant benefits  
with appropriate regulations, thereby achieving high utilization efficiency of the  
Argentina-Brazil UHV DC channel. In 2035, the capacity of Argentina-Brazil UHV DC  
33  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
channel will reach 10 GW and the 7 GW seasonal thermal installed capacities could be  
reduced. The utilization hours of this channel will reach 3,870 hours. There will be 11.4  
TWh energy delivered from Brazil to Argentina during the wet season, and 27.3 TWh  
from Argentina to Brazil during the dry season in 2035. The total capacity of three  
Argentina-Brazil UHV DC projects is 30 GW which can replace the equivalent amount  
of coal-fired generation capacity in 2050. The power flow of UHV DC channels are  
directed from Argentina to Brazil and the utilization hours of these channels will  
increase to 5,560 hours.  
(4) Oceania - Asia Interconnection Channels  
With the large-scale development and efficient use of clean energy, the “hydro and  
solar complementarity and inter-continental power mutual support” will be achieved.  
Solar energy of the large-scale base in northern Australia can be efficiently delivered to  
meet the development needs of load centers in Southeast Asia, with mutual support  
from the local hydropower. The annual total radiation intensity of the solar energy base  
in northern Australia is about 2,200 to 2,400 kWh/m2, and the annual power generation  
hours can reach 2,500 hours. Indonesia's hydropower shows distinct seasonal  
characteristics with half or lesser output during dry seasons than in wet seasons. Solar  
energy in northern Australia and hydropower in Indonesia shows good complementarity.  
In 2050, the Oceania-Southeast Asia DC channel capacity will reach 8 GW.  
5.4 Intra-continental grid interconnections  
(1) Asia  
In the future, Asia will form an interconnected pattern consisting of five regions:  
East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia. In 2035, the inter-  
continental interconnection channel will be constructed at the early stages and the five  
regional interconnection grids will mostly be built. In 2050, the Asian energy  
interconnection will be fully established with “four horizontal and three vertical”  
interconnection channels.  
(2) Europe  
In the future, with the upgrade of the power grid and the interconnection scale,  
34  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Europe will build the European VSC HVDC power grids, connecting the wind power  
bases of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, the  
Northern European hydropower base, and interconnect to North Africa, West Asia and  
CentralAsia inter-continentally. In 2035, the European DC grid will begin to take shape.  
In 2050, a flexible and controllable DC grid covering Europe will be formed.  
(3) Africa  
In the future, Africa will have three synchronous grids in the North Africa, Central-  
West Africa and South-East Africa. In 2035, theAfrica Energy Interconnection will take  
shape, forming the “one horizontal and two verticals” grid, and achieve inter-  
continental connection with Asia and Europe. In 2050, Africa will build a basic yet  
strong energy interconnection, forming the “two horizontal and two vertical” backbone  
grid, and expanding the scale of Asia, Europe and Africa interconnection.  
(4) North America  
In the future, North America will build three synchronous grids in the North  
America eastern synchronous grid, the North American western synchronous grid and  
the Quebec grid. In 2035, the North American energy interconnection structure will  
take shape. The UHV clean energy transmission channels will be built, and the existing  
power grid will be upgraded. The maximum voltage level of the eastern and western  
power grids and the Mexican power grid will be increased to 1,000 kV, and the DC  
voltage level of the Quebec grid will be raised to ± 800 kV. In 2050, the North America  
Energy Interconnection will be fully established, and the UHV AC/DC vertical channel  
on the east and west coasts and the central clean energy horizontal transmission channel  
will be built.  
(5) Central and South America  
In the future, in addition to the Caribbean region, Central and South America will  
form an overall pattern of three synchronous grids in eastern South America, southern  
South America, western South America, and Central America. The Caribbean will  
achieve power exchange or DC cross-island networking. In 2035, the Central and South  
America Energy Interconnection will basically take shape, where the eastern and  
western parts of South America will be synchronously connected. The southern South  
35  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
America will be connected to the eastern and western regions, and the western South  
America and Central America will be connected asynchronously. The domestic and  
regional power grids will also be strengthened. In 2050, the Central and South  
American Energy Interconnection will maintain the overall pattern of having three  
synchronous grids, thereby achieving the interconnection to the North America grid.  
(6) Oceania  
In the future, Oceania will construct five synchronous grids in the easternAustralia,  
western Australia, northern New Zealand, southern New Zealand, and Papua New  
Guinea, and the power reliability and supply capacity will be further enhanced. In 2035,  
the Oceania Energy Interconnection will basically take shape. The 500 kV main grid  
will be built in the eastern and western regions of Australia, the 400 kV main grids will  
be built in the North Island and the South Island of New Zealand, and the 400 kV AC  
transmission channel will be built in Papua New Guinea. The island countries with  
relatively smaller land areas will be built with domestic synchronous power grids, and  
power grid interconnection will be increased significantly. In 2050, Oceania will  
continue to maintain the pattern of five major synchronous grids in the eastern and  
western Australia, New Zealand's South and North Island, and Papua New Guinea. The  
power exchange between Papua New Guinea and Australia will further be enhanced.  
5.5 Key Interconnection Projects  
(1) Asia-Europe interconnection projects  
Table 5-1 Asia-Europe’s “Two Horizontal” Backbone Network Key Projects  
Total  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Cross-  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)）  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10 Year  
MW)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Russia  
Khabarovsk-  
North Korea  
Chongjin-Korea  
Daegu three-  
terminal flexible  
DC project  
2300  
4000  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2035  
2035  
40.9  
56.2  
Asia-  
Europe  
North  
Cross  
Channel  
Kazakhstan  
Ekibastuz-China  
Henan Power  
Transmission  
Project  
36  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Cross-  
Total  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Voltage  
level  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10 Year  
MW)  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Channel  
Key projects  
(kV)）  
Sakhalin-Japan  
Hokkaido DC  
Transmission  
Project  
Sakhalin,  
Russia-Tokyo  
Power  
300  
40  
80  
±500  
±800  
200  
800  
2035  
2035  
6.7  
43  
2000  
Transmission  
Project, Japan  
Russian  
Okhotsk-Japan  
Nagano Power  
Transmission  
Project  
Kyrgyzstan-  
China Xinjiang  
back-to-back  
project  
2700  
0
230  
0
±800  
800  
300  
2050  
2035  
58.5  
3.5  
500  
Kazakhstan  
Aktobe-  
Germany  
3500  
3900  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2035  
2050  
62  
67  
Munich Power  
Transmission  
Project  
Kazakhstan  
Kostanay-  
Nuremberg  
Power  
Transmission  
Project,  
Germany  
Krasnoyarsk-  
Moscow  
transmission  
project  
Saudi Alcuzma-  
Istanbul-  
3600  
2800  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2050  
2035  
53  
53  
Bulgaria  
Haskovo  
Transmission  
Project  
Saudi Hail-  
Turkey Karaman  
Transmission  
Project  
2200  
2000  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
47  
Asia-  
East  
South  
Myanmar  
Crossing  
Myitkyina-India  
Lucknow Power  
Transmission  
Project  
38.2  
Iran Fasa-  
Pakistan  
Khuzdar Power  
Transmission  
Project  
1400  
0
±660  
400  
2050  
16.8  
37  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Table 5-2 Asia-Europe’s “Five Vertical” Backbone Network Key Projects  
Cross-  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Total  
investment  
(100 million  
USD)  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)）  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
Greenland-Iceland-  
UK interconnection  
project  
Norway-UK-France  
multi-terminal DC  
project  
2400  
1600  
2200  
1000  
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2035  
2035  
180  
122  
European  
West  
Vertical  
Channel  
Nordic-European  
Union DC  
interconnection  
project  
European continent  
multi-end flexible  
grid project  
2300  
3800  
400  
0
±800  
±800  
1600  
2400  
2035  
2050  
128  
210  
European  
medium  
vertical  
channel  
Nordic-Baltic  
countries-European  
continent flexible DC  
interconnection  
project  
±800、  
±660  
European  
east  
vertical  
channel  
4200  
800  
400  
2050  
150  
Nordic-Ukraine  
transmission project  
1300  
750  
180  
0
±660  
±500  
400  
130  
2050  
2035  
28  
Tajikistan Sangtuda-  
Pakistan Nowshera  
Power Transmission  
Project  
Kazakhstan 1000 kV  
AC transmission  
project  
China Hotan-Pakistan  
Nowshera Power  
Transmission Project  
China Yili-Pakistan  
Lahore Power  
5.9  
Asian  
West  
Vertical  
Channel  
3500  
1000  
2000  
0
0
0
1000  
±660  
±800  
2400  
400  
2050  
2035  
2050  
58  
14.7  
38.2  
800  
Transmission Project  
Asian mid-  
vertical  
China  
channel  
Gongbo'gyamda-  
India Jabalpur Power  
Transmission Project  
China Duoxiong-  
India Kolkata Power  
Transmission Project  
China Baoshan-  
Myanmar Mandalay-  
Bangladesh  
2000  
1600  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
38.2  
34.6  
1150  
0
±660  
400  
2035  
15.5  
Chittagong Power  
Transmission Project  
China Liupanshui -  
Vietnam Hanoi  
Power Transmission  
Project  
China Zhengzhou-  
Laos Phôngsali  
Power Transmission  
Project  
840  
0
0
±660  
±800  
400  
800  
2050  
2050  
13.9  
35.5  
Asian East  
Vertical  
Channel  
1700  
China-Burma back-  
to-back project  
0
0
0
0
500  
500  
200  
200  
2035  
2035  
2.4  
2.4  
China-Vietnam back-  
to-back project  
China-Laos back-to-  
back project  
0
0
500  
200  
2035  
2.4  
38  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Cross-  
Total  
investment  
(100 million  
USD)  
Voltage  
level  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
2035  
(kV)）  
China  
Xishuangbanna-  
Vietnam Ho Chi  
Minh Power  
1600  
0
±660  
400  
17.8  
Transmission Project  
Russian Lena River-  
China Hebei Power  
Transmission Project  
Russian Lena River-  
China Shandong  
Power Transmission  
Project  
2700  
2700  
1500  
0
0
±800  
±800  
±660  
800  
800  
400  
2035  
2050  
2050  
44.5  
44.5  
42.1  
Australian Derby-  
Indonesia Bali Power  
Transmission Project  
1000  
(2) Asia-Europe-Africa Interconnection Project  
Table 5-3 Asia-Europe’s Non-Connected Channel Key Projects  
Total  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Cross-  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)）  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
R. Congo-  
Nigeria DC  
Transmission  
Project  
Cameroon-  
Nigeria DC  
Transmission  
Project  
R. Congo-  
Ghana DC  
Transmission  
Project  
D.R.Congo -  
Guinea DC  
Transmission  
Phase I Project  
D.R.Congo-  
Zambia three-  
terminal DC  
project  
2000  
1100  
2800  
4500  
2200  
0
0
0
0
0
±660  
±660  
±800  
±800  
±800  
400  
400  
800  
800  
800  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
23  
15  
45  
70  
44  
Asia-Europe  
West Vertical  
Channel  
Morocco-  
Portugal DC  
Transmission  
Project  
D.R.Congo-  
Morocco DC  
Project  
D.R.Congo-  
Guinea DC  
Transmission  
Phase II Project  
D.R.Congo-  
Nigeria DC  
Project  
D.R.Congo-  
South Africa  
DC Project  
260  
6500  
4500  
200  
0
±500  
±1100  
±800  
300  
1000  
800  
2035  
2050  
2050  
12  
94  
64  
0
2000  
3800  
0
0
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
38  
54  
39  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Cross-  
Total  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Voltage  
level  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
sea  
length  
(km)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
(kV)）  
Morocco-Spain  
DC Project  
Egypt-Turkey  
DC Project  
Egypt-Greece-  
Italy DC Project  
Ethiopia-Egypt  
DC Project  
Ethiopia-South  
Africa DC  
1800  
1100  
1700  
2200  
30  
800  
960  
0
±660  
±660  
±800  
±800  
400  
400  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
20  
50  
104  
37  
Eurasian East  
Vertical Channel  
4000  
0
±800  
800  
2035  
57  
Project  
Tunisia-Italy  
DC Engineering  
Algeria-France  
DC Engineering  
Algeria-France-  
Germany three-  
terminal DC  
project  
1300  
1400  
200  
750  
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
2035  
2035  
44  
78  
European and  
Central African  
Vertical Channel  
2400  
840  
±800  
800  
2050  
103  
Saudi-Egypt  
three-terminal  
DC  
transmission  
project  
Saudi-Egyptian  
HVDC Project  
Morocco-  
1300  
700  
0
0
±500  
±660  
300  
400  
2035  
2050  
15  
14  
Asian-African  
Interconnection  
channel  
Algeria-Tunisia,  
Libya-Egypt  
UHV AC  
transmission  
project  
Saudi-Ethiopia  
DC  
Transmission  
Project  
6920  
2000  
0
1000  
800  
400  
2050  
2035  
188  
22  
40  
±660  
40  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
(3) North America-Central and South America  
Interconnection Project  
Table 5-4 America’s Interconnected Channel Key Projects  
Total  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)）  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
Canada Nitchequon-U.S.  
U.S. High Voltage DC  
1900  
1115  
±800  
800  
600  
2035  
2035  
60  
80  
East America  
Vertical  
Interconnection  
Channel  
UHV AC in the northeastern  
United States  
1000  
UHV AC in the southeastern  
United States  
1060  
2600  
2171  
1800  
2600  
443  
1000  
±800  
1000  
800  
800  
800  
800  
800  
800  
800  
800  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
2035  
59  
68  
112  
90  
56  
17  
45  
61  
Canada Terrace-San  
Francisco UHV DC  
West America  
Vertical  
Interconnected  
Channel  
West U.S. UHV AC  
Mexican UHV AC  
1000  
Canada Calgary-Livermore  
High Voltage DC  
±800  
1000  
Los Angeles-Pasadena-Las  
Vegas UHV AC  
North America  
South Horizontal  
Interconnection  
Channel  
Las Vegas-Lande High  
Voltage DC  
1100  
1710  
±800  
1000  
San Diego-Fenix-Buffett  
High Voltage AC  
Bolivia Trinidad-Brazil  
Campinas DC Project  
2100  
1600  
400  
±800  
800  
800  
300  
2035  
2035  
2035  
47  
41  
10  
South America  
Interconnection  
Channel  
Argentina Rufino-Brazil  
Santa Cruz DC Project  
±800  
±500  
Columbia El Povenir-  
Panama City  
Canada Manicouagan-  
Newark High Voltage DC  
1400  
490  
±800  
1000  
1000  
800  
600  
600  
2050  
2050  
2050  
48  
18  
73  
East America  
Vertical  
Interconnection  
Channel  
Northeast-Southeast U.S.  
UHV AC  
West America  
Vertical  
Interconnection  
Channel  
US-Mexico AC  
Interconnection  
1929  
41  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Total  
investment  
(100  
million  
USD)  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)）  
Channel  
length  
(km)  
Transmission  
capacity (10  
MW)  
Channel  
Key projects  
Year  
Mexico-Peru UHV DC  
5200  
2800  
2700  
±800  
±800  
±800  
800  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
2050  
115  
72  
RAND-Morgan Dante High  
Voltage DC  
North America  
South Horizontal  
Interconnection  
Channel  
Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa,  
Illinois, Cairns-Atlanta UHV  
DC  
71  
Peru Trujillo-Mexico City  
5200  
1600  
2200  
3000  
2600  
9290  
3190  
1430  
1400  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
1000  
800  
800  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
2050  
115  
41  
Argentina Salta-Brazil Lagos  
DC Project  
Argentina Maquinchao-  
Brazil Porto Alegre DC  
Project  
Peru Yanayacu-Bolivia  
Riberalta-Brazil Araraquara  
DC Project  
800  
48  
800  
69  
South America  
Interconnection  
Channel  
Argentina Neuquen-Brazil  
Biguaçu  
800  
52  
Brazilian UHV AC  
Argentina UHV AC  
Peru UHV AC  
2000  
2000  
1000  
200  
205  
71  
1000  
1000  
36  
North Arc Four Countries  
UHV AC  
500  
14  
42  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
(4) Oceania - Asia Interconnect Project  
The Darwin (Australia)-Bali (Indonesia) ± 660 kV DC project will be built to  
promote the Oceania-Asia cross-sea interconnection with transmission capacity of 4  
GW and channel length of 2000 km. It is expected to be completed by 2050 and the  
estimated total investment is about 2.4 billion USD.  
5.6 Investment Estimation  
By 2050, the GEI backbone grid will have an increased channel length of  
202,000 km and transmission capacity of 660 GW, with an estimated total  
investment of 509.8 billion USD. From 2019 to 2035, the backbone grid has increased  
the transmission channel length of 77,000 km and transmission capacity of 290 GW,  
including 5,930 km of submarine cables and 65 GW of cross-sea transmission capacity,  
with an estimated total investment of 211.4 billion USD. From 2036 to 2050, the  
backbone grid will have new transmission channel length of 125,000 km and a  
transmission capacity of 380 GW, including 4,760 km of submarine cables and 48 GW  
of cross-sea transmission capacity, with an estimated total investment of 298.4 billion  
USD. From 2019 to 2050, the total investment in GEI is estimated to about 34  
trillion USD, of which, the power investment is about 24 trillion USD, and the  
power grid investment is about 10 trillion USD.  
Figure 5-3 Estimated GEI Construction Investment from 2019 to 2050  
43  
 
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
6 Comprehensive Benefits  
6.1 Economic Benefits  
Enabling clean, sustainable energy and electricity supply. In the future, the  
share of clean and primary energy across the world will exceed 70% and the share of  
clean energy power generation against the total power generation will reach 80% in  
2050. The driver of economic growth. The GEI has received a total investment of 35  
trillion USD, and the average contribution rate to the global economic growth can reach  
up to 2%. Balancing development levels between regions and countries. Countries  
such as Africa and other less developed areas, which are rich in clean energy resources,  
can convert their resources into economic advantages and propel their economic  
development, thereby achieving an inclusive economic growth across the world.  
6.2 Social Benefits  
Ensuring people have access to electricity. As the clean energy power generation  
develops rapidly and the electricity price drops dramatically, this rate is estimated to  
rise to 95% in 2035. By 2050, the universal access to electricity will be achieved.  
Improving human’s physical health. By developing and utilizing clean energy on a  
large scale through building the GEI, it can will effectively mitigate the problem of  
pollution resulting from energy production and utilization, and drastically reduce the  
diseases and deaths caused by pollution. This effect alone will reduce 8-10 million cases  
of morbidity across the world on a yearly basis. Increasing employment. The  
construction of GEI involves many sectors, including energy development, electricity  
production, power grid development, electric engineering equipment, electricity  
replacement, smart technologies, new materials, and information and communication,  
etc. It can therefore drive employment, where about 300 million new jobs will be  
created on a cumulative basis by 2050. Reducing energy supply costs. It is predicted  
that in 2050, the global average cost of power generation will be reduced by about 40%  
compared with the current level. Improving standard of living. With adequate power  
supply, clean and affordable freshwater can be produced through seawater desalination,  
44  
     
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
which can then be used to promote food production, and meet the ever-growing physical  
demand of mankind.  
6.3 Environmental Benefits  
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-related disasters.  
The GEI can also help to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system to about 23 Gt  
CO2/yr in 2035, 35% less than the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario1. It can further  
reduce to about 10.9 Gt CO2/yr in 2050, 75% lower than the BAU scenario. It can  
effectively lower the probability of the occurrence of extreme weather and disasters and  
reduce climate risks in coastal areas. Reducing air pollutant emissions. By 2035, the  
GEI scenario can reduce 20.7 million tonnes of sulfur dioxide, 33.8 million tonnes of  
nitrogen oxides and 4.9 million tonnes of fine particulate matter emissions per year, as  
compared to the BAU scenario. By 2050, the GEI scenario can reduce 50.7 million  
tonnes of sulfur dioxide, 78.0 million tonnes of nitrogen oxides and 11.4 million tonnes  
of fine particulate matter emissions per year as compared to the BAU scenario.  
Increasing the value of land resources. As compared to the BAU scenario, the GEI  
scenario will increase the value of land resources by 70 billion USD per year by 2035  
and 133 billion USD per year by 2050.  
6.4 Political Benefits  
Reinforcing political trust. By building the GEI and achieving the sharing of  
clean energy, the interconnection of power grids and the cross-border and even  
intercontinental electricity trade will promote strong energy and economic cooperation  
across the globe, as well as the South-North and South-South international cooperation  
and effectively reinforce political trust across the world. Promoting world peace. In  
developing and utilizing clean energy and building the GEI, countries all over the world  
will now have a shared interest that will dynamically change the long-standing struggle  
and competition for energy internationally, and give rise to a new pattern of  
international energy governance that prioritizes cooperation, opening-up,  
interconnection, mutual benefit and win-win outcomes. As a result, the political,  
1
The BAU scenario developed by the Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a  
development path for economy, energy, power and emissions in a country continuing existing policies.  
45  
   
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
military and diplomatic tensions and conflicts caused by the competition for energy  
resources will be dramatically reduced, thus promoting world peace, harmony and  
development. Serving the development of a community with a shared future for  
humanity. Driving economic growth, pushing energy transition, removing energy  
poverty, addressing climate change, improving ecological environment and achieving  
sustainable development are all common interests and visions of the human race as a  
whole. Therefore, by building the GEI, it can achieve mutual consensus between  
countries and nations with different ethnic origins, beliefs, cultures, geographic  
locations and institutions, enabling people of all countries to share a closely-knit future.  
Planning and building the GEI together will help the world countries gather great  
strength and make great contribution to developing a community with a shared future  
for humanity.  
46  
Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
7 Key Technologies for Global Energy  
Interconnection Development  
7.1 Clean Energy Power Generation Technology  
(1) Wind power generation technology  
Wind power generation is a technology that converts the kinetic energy of wind  
into electrical energy. Wind power is one of the main electricity sources for future clean  
energy system and has achieved large-scale commercial applications. Wind power is  
now dominated by onshore wind power. The offshore wind power will also grow  
rapidly with technological breakthroughs and reduction in cost.  
(2) Solar power generation technology  
The solar power generation technology directly or indirectly converts the solar  
energy to electricity, including PV power generation and concentrating solar power  
(CSP) generation. Solar energy is one of the main electricity sources for future clean  
energy power system. According to the statistics, the global solar power generation  
volume is about 160TWh in 2019, accounting for about 0.7% of the global total power  
generation. Asia is the largest solar power generation market in the world, accounting  
for about 75% of the global market. It is expected that by 2050, the proportion of the  
solar power generation volume against the global total power generation will be about  
32%. In the future, the solar power generation efficiency, controllability and reliability  
need to be further improved.  
7.2 Advanced Power Transmission and Grid Control  
Technology  
(1)UHVAC power transmission technology  
UHVAC refers to the AC power transmission technology of 1,000kV and above,  
which is mainly applied in network delivery and allocation of large-scale power. It is  
one of the key technologies for building the GEI Backbone Grid.  
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(2)UHVDC power transmission technology  
UHVDC power transmission technology refers to the DC power transmission  
technology of ±800kV and above, mainly applied in ultra-long distance and ultra-large  
capacity power transmission. It is an important in ensuring the long-distance  
transmission of large-scale clean energy of the GEI.  
(3)VSC-UHVDC power transmission technology  
The VSC-HVDC technology is applied based on power electronic devices. It is  
an important technical method to realize friendly grid integration of PV, wind power  
and other clean energy generation. The VSC-HVDC technology is of great  
significance to guarantee wide access, delivery and accommodation of clean energy and  
to improve the flexibility and reliability of power grids.  
(4)UHVDC submarine cable technology  
The DC submarine cable is the most critical link to achieve the large-scale  
development of offshore clean energy and sea-crossing power grid interconnection. In  
the planning of GEI Backbone Grid, more than 80% of sea-crossing power transmission  
demand should be achieved by the UHVDC submarine cable with a capacity of more  
than 8GW. The development of UHVDC submarine cable is of great significance to  
build the GEI.  
(5)Large power grid operation control technology  
The large AC and DC hybrid power grid (hereinafter referred to as “large power  
grid”) is characterized by multiple types of accessible electricity sources, diverse  
equipment types and extensive geographical coverage, large transmission capacity,  
frequent fluctuations in power flow, complex disturbance behaviors and other  
operating characteristics. Therefore, the large power grid operation control technology  
is one of key technologies for reliable operation of GEI in the future. It mainly includes  
large power grid safety analysis technology, simulation technology, operation control  
technology, failure recovery and automatic reconstruction technology.  
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7.3 Large-scale Energy Storage Technology  
Energy storage offers a “buffer” between production and consumption in the  
energy system. It is a cyclic process to store energy in a certain form through a certain  
medium or equipment and release the energy at a required time and to a required  
location. Energy transformation are usually involved in this process. There are many  
technical routes for energy storage. Currently, the main forms of energy storage include  
the electro-mechanical storage, the electro-chemical storage and the electro-magnetic  
storage. The electro-mechanical storage technology, such as the pumped hydro storage  
is mature and has a large electricity storage capacity. The electro-chemical storage is  
flexible, fast and widely applicable. The electro-magnetic storage is of high response  
speed. Through complementation of different energy storage technologies, the energy  
storage function of the system could be improved.  
7.4 Electricity Replacement Technology  
(1)Electrification technology in transport sector  
The transport sector is the key area that consumes fossil energy, mainly including  
aviation, marine, railway transport and road transport. Currently, the electrification rate  
in this sector is only 1.3%, and the energy consumption of road transport accounts for  
75% of the total in the transport sector. Therefore, the promotion of electric vehicles is  
the key to achieve clean transition in the transport sector in the future and is of great  
significance to reduce the overall carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency.  
Electric vehicles refers to on-board electricity-powered vehicles that are driven by  
electric motor, mainly including battery electric vehicle (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric  
vehicle (PHEV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV).  
(2) Electric heating technology  
Heat supply is an important field of energy consumption. At present, heat is mainly  
supplied from the direct combustion of fossil fuels or firewood. Accelerating the pace  
of electricity replacement in the field of electric heating technology is of great  
significance to promote energy transition and clean development. Heat pump, electric  
boiler, hot film and latent thermal energy storage (LTES) are some of the main electric  
heating technologies. The heat pump technology is expected to be one of the key  
electricity replacement technologies with high development potential due to its high  
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energy efficiency ratio, low operating cost, zero carbon emission and other advantages.  
(3) Power-to-gas (P2G) technology  
Direct electricity replacement is difficult and inefficient in metallurgical, chemical,  
freight, aviation, navigation, industrial high-temperature heating and some other fields.  
This application of hydrogen (or natural gases) produced from clean electricity by the  
power-to-gas technology in the abovementioned fields will become the “connection”  
between clean electricity and some end-use energy consumption sectors.  
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8 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Target  
8.1 Demands of the Times  
Achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target is of great significance for  
global sustainable development and the well-being of all countries. Achieving a  
temperature rise control target of 1.5°C ensures that the global climate system  
experiences smaller risks, and that the natural and human systems are safer. The global  
temperature rise of 1.5°C and 2°C can display stark differences in climate  
characteristics such as the average temperature of the land and the sea, extreme  
temperature in human settlements, and probability of heavy precipitation and droughts.  
As compared to the global temperature rise of 2°C, the 1.5°C scenario can prevent the  
melting of permafrost regions of 1.5 to 2.5 million square km. It can also reduce the  
impact on animal diversity, losing high-risk lands by more than half of the estimated  
number, and reduce fishing activities. There will be hundreds of millions of people  
alleviated from climate-related risk and poverty. The proportion of the population  
suffering from water shortage will also be reduced by up to 50%. Furthermore, risks  
caused by climate change on the overall global economic development will decline, and  
the proportion of population at borderline poverty levels will be lower.  
To achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target, the world is in urgent need  
to implement climate action from all respects. If the temperature rise is to be kept  
controlled within 1.5°C, the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions should be limited  
between 420 and 580 billion tonnes from 2018 to 21009. This means that the amount of  
global carbon emissions will have to shrink by more than half. The emissions of all  
continents and countries need to peak and speed up the decline as soon as possible, so  
that zero net emissions of the whole world can be achieved around 2050. This poses  
higher demands on the commitment and speed of global mitigation actions.  
8.2 Implementation Method  
(1) Clean Replacement  
For energy supply, it is necessary to speed up the process of clean energy  
replacement. The opportunities of rapid development of renewable energy generation  
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technology and rapid growth of their economy should be made full use of. The  
development of clean energy industry on a global scale, relying on cross-border and  
inter-regional interconnection should be promoted to achieve a larger scale and more  
intensive development of clean energy resources. Wide-area allocation and efficient use  
will further accelerate the coordinated development of hydro, wind and solar power,  
and will play a supporting role in the temporal and spatial aspects, greatly increasing  
the proportion of clean energy utilization, and rapidly reducing the proportion of fossil  
energy and greenhouse gas emissions.  
In terms of hydropower development, advanced technology and engineering  
construction management experience should be introduced to promote the  
comprehensive development and to coordinate the development of cascading  
hydropower stations in river basins, ensuring that the power is efficiently delivered. It  
is necessary to accelerate the exploitation of large hydropower bases of southwestern  
China in Asia, northern Europe, the Congo River in Africa, Labrador in North America,  
the Amazon River in Central and South America, and the Murray-Darling River in  
Oceania.  
In terms of wind power development, it is necessary to accelerate the  
exploitation of large onshore or offshore wind power bases in western China and  
northern China, northern Europe, northern Africa, eastern Africa, southern Africa,  
Central North America, southern South America, Oceania’s Australia and Central New  
Zealand.  
In terms of solar energy development, it is necessary to accelerate the  
exploitation of large-scale solar energy bases in western China, northern and southern  
Africa, southern America, and southern Chile. Technologies such as the CSP, the  
PV/CSP hybrid power generation, and the PV plus energy storage should be used to  
improve flexible dispatching and utilization efficiency of transmission projects, while  
making full use of building-roofs, agricultural and fishery facilities and water surface  
to promote the construction of distributed PV generation.  
(2) Electricity Replacement  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
In terms of energy consumption, electricity replacement should be enhanced.  
Policies such as providing financial subsidies and tax reductions should be  
implemented. The research and development of electricity replacement-related  
technologies should be further accelerated, so as to support the development of  
electrification industry, fully stimulate the potential of electricity replacement, and  
thereby improving the economical replacement with electricity, rapidly expanding the  
scale of electricity consumption, and promoting the final energy consumption structure  
faster.  
In terms of direct electricity replacement, policies supporting electricity  
replacement should be strengthened, in order to increase the technical research and  
industrial support for electric vehicles and electric machinery, optimize infrastructure  
layout, build new business models and industrial ecology, and accelerate the promotion  
of key technologies such as power batteries and heat pumps, support technological  
innovation in the industrial field, further enhance the economic benefits of direct  
electricity replacement, rigorously promote the use of electric energy boilers, electric  
kiln furnaces, heat pumps, electric drills, electric irrigation and other electricity  
alternative applications, stimulate electric energy to replace market vitality, and  
expand the scale of electric energy replacement.  
In terms of indirect electricity replacement, new electrification technologies  
such as hydrogen, fuel cells, electrosynthesis fuels and raw materials should be actively  
developed. The construction of related infrastructure should be accelerated to increase  
the production scale of electrohydrogen and electrosynthesis fuels, and to improve the  
transportation and distribution efficiency. The cost should be reduced rapidly, so that  
around 2040, it will be widely applied in metal smelting, long-distance  
passenger/freight, aviation and navigation, to further improve the level of electrification  
and cleanliness.  
(3) Carbon Sequestration and Reduction  
In terms of carbon sequestration and reduction, the application of carbon  
sequestration and reduction should be promoted. Based on greater efforts to promote  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
clean replacement in energy supply and electricity replacement in energy consumption  
and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the research and development,  
commercialization and large-scale application of carbon sequestration and carbon  
reduction technologies should be actively promoted through policy implementation to  
directly reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  
In terms of carbon capture, the cost of emission reduction with carbon dioxide  
capture and storage technology (CCS) dropped to 60 USD per tonne of CO2 in 2012.  
The CCS technology is expected to be cost-effective for application by 2030, which in  
the long term, will be widely applied to sectors including power and heat production,  
heavy industry and chemical industries. To achieve the temperature rise control target  
of 1.5°C, it is expected that by 2050, carbon capture equipment are installed for more  
than 80% of thermal power plants and industrial carbon emission sources.  
In terms of negative emissions technologies, bioenergy with CCS technology  
(BECCS) will help to achieve negative emissions in electricity generation. Both the  
biomass generation and biomass fuel technologies already have scaled application.  
Once the CCS technology becomes economical for large-scale application, the scale of  
BECCS power generation units will increase rapidly to achieve large-scale negative  
emissions and promote higher emission reduction.  
In terms of forest carbon sink, the coverage of various plants will be expanded,  
and the carbon sequestration capacity of agriculture, forestry and land utilization sectors  
should be increased to promote ecology restoration and negative emission, in dry and  
half-dry areas that are near the sea globally, through seawater desalination and other  
methods.  
8.3 Scenarios  
(1) Energy demand  
Converting the electric power into the heat power, the primary energy demand is  
expected to reach an equivalent of 18.3 billion and 17.0 billion tonnes of coal in 2035 and  
2050, respectively. The demands will reach an equivalent of 1.7 billion and 2.0 billion  
tonnes of coal. Converting into coal consumption per kWh, the primary energy demand  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
in 2035 and 2050 will reach 23.5 billion and 25.2 billion tonnes of coal equivalent,  
respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 0.6% from 2016 to 2050. The  
demand for coal and natural gases will successively peak respectively in 2025 and 2030  
before seeing a huge decline. The total demand for fossil energy will reduce to 5 billion  
tonnes of coal equivalent by 2050, a decrease by 68% as compared to the level in 2016.  
The “clean replacement” of the world will continue to accelerate, raising the share of  
clean energy in primary energy to 59% and 86% in 2035 and 2050 respectively.  
The global final energy consumption demand will peak in around 2035,  
reaching 15.2 billion tonnes of coal equivalent with an average annual growth rate of  
0.5%. Subsequently, the consumption will decline to 14.2 billion tonnes of coal  
equivalent by 2050 with an average annual decline rate of 0.4%. The final consumption  
for fossil energy will decline to 67.7 billion tonnes of coal equivalent and 25.5 billion  
tonnes of coal equivalent in 2035 and 2050 respectively. The more intense “electricity  
replacement” will accelerate on all continents. It is estimated that the global share of  
electric power will reach 41% and 67% by 2035 and 2050 respectively.  
Figure 8-1 Primary Energy Demand in the World by Fuels Fulfilling 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Target  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
Figure 8-2 Final Energy Consumption in the World Fulfilling 1.5℃ Temperature  
Control Target  
(2) Power demand  
In terms of the total power demand, the total global electricity consumption will  
reach 46 PWh in 2035, and the average annual growth rate will be 2.7% from 2016 to  
2035; the maximum load will be 8 TW, and the annual growth rate will be 3.8% from  
2016 to 2035. In 2050, the global electricity consumption will reach 70 PWh, and the  
average annual growth rate will be 2.4% from 2035 to 2050; the maximum load will be  
12.3 TW, and the average annual growth rate will be 2.3% from 2035 to 2050. In 2050,  
the global per capita electricity consumption will increase to 7,210 kWh, which is 2.4  
times of the level in 2016.  
Figure 8-3 Global Power Demand Forecast for 1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
(3) Power supply  
The global total installed power generation, and clean energy installed  
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generation will increase significantly. In 2035, the total installed capacity of the world  
will be about 19 TW, and the installed capacity per capita will be 2.2 kW, of which the  
proportion of clean energy installed capacity will increase from 39% in 2016 to 83% in  
2035; the hydropower installed capacity will decrease from 19% in 2016 to 12% in  
2035; and the thermal power installed capacity will decrease significantly, from 61% in  
2016 to 17% in 2035. The clean energy generation capacity will be 37 PWh, which will  
increase from 35% in 2016 to 78%. In 2050, the total installed capacity of the world  
will be about 31.2 TW, and the per capita installed capacity will be 3.2 kW, of which,  
the proportion of clean energy installed capacity will continue to increase, reaching  
91%, and the proportion of non-hydro renewable energy installed capacity will be 80%,  
becoming the main source of power; the proportion of hydropower installed capacity  
will drop to 10%; the proportion of thermal power installed capacity will drop to  
9%. Clean energy generation capacity will reach 67 PWh, accounting for 91% of the  
total power generation.  
Figure 8-4 Global Power Supply Capacity and Structure to Achieve 1.5°C  
Temperature Control Target  
(4) Grid Interconnection  
The large-scale clean energy base transmission channel should be further enhanced  
to expand the scale of large-scale clean energy bases such as those in Africa and North  
America, and to increase the access capacity of offshore wind power. The transmission  
and distribution network should be simultaneously strengthened and improved to  
increase the power supply capacity and reliability and meet the needs of large-scale and  
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Research and Outlook on Global Energy Interconnection  
high-proportion access and consumption of clean energy. Cross-border and inter-  
regional interconnection should be strengthened to achieve a wide range  
complementation and optimal allocation of clean energy. Global clean energy resources  
optimal allocation will be greatly enhanced, meeting 70 PWh of power demand and 31  
TW of installed capacity. The inter-continental, inter-regional and cross-border power  
flow will exceed 800 GW.  
(5) Comparative Analysis  
In order to achieve the global temperature rise control target of 1.5℃, it is  
necessary to accelerate the process of clean and low-carbon energy transition. The  
clean and electrification rate will be higher, and the interconnection scale of power  
grids will be larger. As compared to the 2°C scenario, the 1.5°C scenario can reduce  
fossil energy consumption by 46% in terms of primary energy by 2050; increase the  
proportion of clean energy exploitation, as the installed capacity of clean energy  
increases by 30% by 2050; accelerate the process of electricity replacement, with an  
electrification coverage increased by about 13 percentages in terms of final energy  
consumption by 2050; strengthen grid interconnection which will bring about 180 GW  
increase in inter-continental and inter-regional power flow; and increase the investment  
for clean energy development and grid construction by 20%.  
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