R e s e a r c h a n d O u t l o o k o n  
E u r o p e a n E n e r g y  
I n t e r c o n n e c t i o n  
( B r i e f V e r s i o n )  
Global Energy Interconnection  
Development and Cooperation Organization  
(GEIDCO)  
Study Region  
This report covers 40 countries, which are classified into seven sub-regions  
based on the operational status of power grids and on geographical and cultural  
traditions.1 British Isles: United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland. Northern Europe:  
Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland. Western Europe: France,  
Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Austria and  
Switzerland. Southern Europe: Italy, Slovenia, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and  
Herzegovina, Greece, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Eastern Europe:  
Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus and Turkey.  
Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. RBUM: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and  
Moldova.  
Illustration of Study Region of European Energy Interconnection  
1 This report does not take any position on the sovereign status of territory, the boundary delimitations of  
international borders and the names of territories, cities or areas. This is the case for the entirety of this  
report.  
I
 
Contents  
Study Region............................................................................................................ I  
Contents...................................................................................................................II  
1. Development in Europe ......................................................................................1  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development...........................................7  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends..........................................................10  
4 Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources ...........................................15  
5 Power Grid Interconnection..............................................................................20  
6 Comprehensive Benefits ....................................................................................31  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control Target ......34  
II  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
1. Development in Europe  
1.1 Economy and Society  
Europe enjoys a developed economy and industrial structure, and boasts  
outstanding advantages in high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries. In 2017,  
Europe’s total GDP was 21.1 trillion USD, accounting for about 26.5% of the global  
total, and the GDP per capita was about 26000 USD. The major countries in Western,  
Northern and Southern Europe have achieved industrialization. Supported by its strong  
capacity in science and technology, the EU contributes approximately one third of  
global scientific output and is the world’s largest knowledge center and global research  
and innovation center.  
Europe’s socio-economic development is leading the world, and has a high  
degree of regional cooperation. Europe’s population in 2017 was 827 million,  
accounting for 11.1% of the world’s population. According to United Nations (UN)  
forecasts, Europe’s population will be 827 million by 2035 and 808 million by 2050. In  
2018, the level of urbanization in Europe was 74%, nearly 20 percentage points higher  
1
than the global average. The EU has been a model of integration, its foreign policies  
are highly consistent and unified measures are adopted to ensure regional peace and  
social stability within the region.  
In order to continuously drive economic growth and further promote social  
development, Europe are still actively seeking new breakthroughs of socio-economic  
development. The EU formally adopted Europe 2020: Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive  
Growth Strategy, the Europe 2020 Strategy sets specific development goals for  
scientific and technological innovation, green development, etc. Germany released the  
National Industrial Strategy 2030, which proposes to establish leading enterprises in  
key industrial fields, so to maintain German industrial competitiveness in Europe and  
the world. The UK published a white paper on Industrial Strategy: Building a Britain  
Fit for the Future, which aims to promote economic development and transition with  
1 Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization Trends 2018, 2018.  
1
   
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
technology. The French government proposed strategies such as New Industrial France,  
Future Industry and Ambition of French Industry, with the aim of driving the transition  
and upgrading of French industry through innovation.  
1.2 Resources and Environment  
Natural resources are rich in Europe but are unevenly distributed. Europe is  
rich in coal resources, with proven reserves of about 295 billion tonnes. This is mainly  
distributed across Russia, Germany, and Ukraine. Proven oil reserves are about 16.4  
billion tonnes, mainly in Russia, Norway and Northern Europe. Natural gas resources  
are also abundant, with proven reserves of about 42.8 trillion m3, which is mainly found  
in Russia, Ukraine, and Norway. The hydropower resources in Europe are mainly  
distributed in the major mountain river systems of continental Europe, the Tigris-  
Euphrates River Basin in Turkey, and Russia. Wind energy resources in Europe are  
mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Denmark, Ireland, UK, France, Germany and  
Poland. Solar energy resources in Europe are mainly distributed in Southern Europe  
countries such as Spain and Italy.  
Europe enjoys excellent ecological environment, and European countries are  
actively responding to climate change. Most of Europe has a temperate maritime or  
temperate continental climate. The river networks in Europe are concentrated. Many  
lakes in Europe contribute greatly to improving the surrounding climate and  
environment and forest resources in Europe are rich. From 1990 to 2016, annual carbon  
dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion in Europe fell from 7.3 billion  
tonnes to 5.4 billion tonnes, and its total contribution to the world’s total decreased from  
35.6% to 16.7%. A number of major European countries have signed the Paris  
Agreement and formulated National Determined Contributions (NDCs) for climate  
change, as well as medium and long-term emission reduction strategies. The EU is  
committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40%1 by 2030 compared  
1 Source: European Union, National Determined Contribution, 2016.  
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Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
to 1990 levels. The UK1 , France2 , Finland3 , Sweden4 , Denmark5 and other EU  
countries have set “achieving carbon neutrality by 2050” as a long-term emission  
reduction goal, and Finland has proposed to realize net zero emissions by 2035.  
1.3 Energy and Power  
The total volume of energy production and consumption remains stable, while  
the share of clean energy continuously increases. Total demand in Europe was 4.09  
billion tce6 in 2016, with an average annual decline of 0.3% from 2010 to 2016. From  
2000 to 2016, the share of fossil energy demand in Europe fell from 80% to 72.8%.  
The share of clean energy continued to increase from 20% to 27.2%, which was 4  
percentage points higher than the global average. Total final energy consumption in  
Europe fell to 2.63 billion tce in 2016, with an average annual decline of 0.5% from  
2010 to 2016. The proportion of oil and natural gas in final energy consumption  
continued to decrease from 39% and 24% to 37.1% and 24.5% respectively, and the  
share of coal fell to 3.7%. The proportion of electricity continued to increase from 17.2%  
to 19.4%, slightly higher than the global average.  
Figure 1-1 Primary Energy Demand Structure in Europe in 2016  
1 Source: United Kingdom, The Climate Change Act 2008 (2050 Target Amendment) Order 2019, 2019.  
2 Source: Website of Climate Tracker, Summary of Climate Action in EU, 2019.  
3 Source: Finland, Osallistuva ja Ammattitaitoinen Suomi, 2019.  
4 Source: Government Offices of Sweden, The Climate Policy Framework, 2018.  
5 Source: Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate in Denmark, Together for a Greener Future, 2018.  
6 Primary energy equivalent calculation adopts the partial substitution method, same for the follows. In this  
method, the primary energy equivalent of renewable energy sources of electricity generation represents the  
amount of energy that would be necessary to generate an identical amount of electricity in coal-fired power  
plants.  
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Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 1-2 Final Energy Consumption Structure in Europe in 2016  
Clean energy accounts for a relatively high proportion of installed generation  
capacity, and per capita installed capacity is higher than the world average. In  
2017, the total installed generation capacity in Europe was about 1.46 TW, of which,  
clean energy installed capacity was 790 GW, accounting for 54.5%. The installed  
capacity of wind power, solar power, hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power was  
about 170 GW, 110 GW, 290 GW, 660 GW, 160 GW accounting for 12%, 7.7%, 20%,  
45.5%, 11.3%, respectively. In 2017, the installed capacity per capita in Europe was 1.8  
kW, which was about 2.2 times the world average.  
Table 1-1 Electric Power Development in Europe in 2017  
Installed  
generation  
capacity  
Electricity  
consumption  
per capita  
(MWh)  
Electricity  
consumption  
(TWh)  
Electricity  
access rate  
(%)  
Peak load  
(GW)  
Region  
(GW)）  
British Isles  
103.07  
107.57  
561.22  
175.37  
195.51  
9.27  
353  
411.8  
1680.8  
474.3  
686.6  
27.5  
4.976  
15.361  
6.722  
5.007  
3.977  
4.472  
5.996  
68.53  
72.08  
277.64  
84.86  
111.03  
4.6  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
100  
Northern  
Europe  
Western  
Europe  
Southern  
Europe  
Eastern  
Europe  
Baltic States  
RBUM  
303.14  
1209.5  
182.99  
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Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Installed  
Electricity  
consumption  
per capita  
(MWh)  
Electricity  
consumption  
(TWh)  
Electricity  
access rate  
(%)  
generation  
capacity  
(GW)）  
Peak load  
(GW)  
Region  
Total  
1455.16  
4843.5  
5.885  
801.74  
100  
The overall development level of European power grids is high and the  
interconnection is tight. At present, forty-three operators from thirty-six countries in  
Europe have joined the European Transmission Operators Alliance (Entso-E), making  
it the world’s largest cross-border power grid. The highest grid voltage of Continental  
Europe, Northern Europe and the UK & Ireland is 400 kV, and that of Baltic States is  
330 kV. These four regional power grids are connected by DC lines. The Continental  
European grid is connected to the grid of North Africa via double-circuit  
Spain−Morocco 400 kV lines. In addition, the Continental European grid is connected  
with Ukrainian grid in the east, and connected with the Western Asia grid in the  
southeast. The Baltic States grid is connected to the Russian grid.  
Europe is a pioneer in addressing climate change and a promoter of clean  
energy. In order to address climate change, the EU proposes that 80% of electricity will  
come from renewable sources by 2050, and has set the interconnection target between  
countries to reach 15% by 2030. Germany will retire all nuclear power by 2022 and all  
coal power by 2038. France will retire all coal power by 2021 and reduce nuclear power  
by 50% by 2025. The UK and Italy will retire all coal power by 2025 and Belgium will  
retire all nuclear power by 2025. The Russian Ministry of Energy has proposed wind  
power, photovoltaic power generation and small-scale hydropower below 25 MW as  
key support areas.  
Europe has pioneered the global regional electricity market. The EU countries  
have promoted successive power market reforms since around the year 2000 and have  
promoted the establishment of a unified market for electricity. After nearly 20 years of  
development, it now forms the world’s largest regional cross-border electricity market.  
Twenty-three countries have achieved day-ahead joint market trading. Fourteen  
countries have achieved intraday joint market trading. Annual cross-border electricity  
5
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
transactions exceed 500 TWh. The market mechanism has effectively promoted the  
large-scale development and wide-area allocation of clean energy. In 2016, the EU’s  
non-hydro renewable energy generation reached 579.8 TWh, accounting for 18% of  
total power generation.  
Europe is the pioneer of the global carbon market. The EU’s carbon emissions  
trading system was launched in 2005. It is the world’s largest carbon market. Economic  
development in the EU has increased by 58% in the period from 1990 to 2017, but total  
emissions decreased by 22% during the same time period, and emission intensity  
decreased by 52%. Carbon trading has also brought huge financial benefits. By the end  
of 2018, the EU’s carbon market had accumulated fiscal revenues of 35.9 billion EUR,  
reaching 14.2 billion EUR in the same year.  
6
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable  
Development  
2.1 Development Challenges  
New stimulus for economic development is urgent. Europe faces declining  
industrial competitiveness, and superiority in the traditional manufacturing industries  
is receding. Economic disparities between EU member states have been growing and  
structural problems are becoming more apparent. All countries in Europe are actively  
seeking new economic growth points to accelerate economic recovery and development.  
The rate of reduction of carbon emissions has slowed. Although greenhouse gas  
emissions in Europe continuously fall year by year, the rate of reduction has slowed.1  
Limited by clean energy resources and utilization conditions, high development costs  
and reduced financial subsidies, hitting the long-term climate target by 2050 remains a  
major challenge. At the same time, Europe remains vulnerable to climate change, there  
is a great need to intensify efforts to reduce and manage climate change.  
The EU is heavily dependent on imports of fossil energy. External dependence  
on fossil energy continuously rises. In 2016, coal, oil and natural gas dependence on  
imports in the EU are 61.2%, 87.4% and 70.4%, respectively.  
2.2 Development Ideas  
The foundations to achieving sustainable development in Europe are  
accelerating the development of clean energy, strengthening energy infrastructure  
interconnectivity, realizing energy transition and green and low-carbon  
development. The overall guidelines of European Energy Interconnection are as  
follows. First, Europe should work faster on clean energy development within the  
region and step up imports of clean energy to satisfy the needs of socio-economic  
development for energy and power in a clean and green manner, thereby guaranteeing  
a safe, clean and efficient energy supply. Secondly, the region should expend greater  
1 European Union Commission, A Clean Planet for All, 2018  
7
     
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
efforts on electrification, build an electricity-centered energy structure, enhance the  
utilization efficiency of energy throughout the whole process, reduce dependence on  
fossil fuels and build a new electricity carbon mechanism, thereby setting a good  
example for global energy transition and climate governance to the world. Finally  
Europe should accelerate the construction and upgrading of power grids across all  
countries, improve cross-border interconnection, seek enhanced inter-continental  
power exchange capacity, push forward power integration across the region and build  
a platform for cooperation on energy and power between Europe and its surrounding  
regions, thereby optimizing resource allocation on a larger scale and coordinating  
regional development.  
2.3 Development Priorities  
Continuously expand Electricity Replacement and raise the efficiency of  
energy utilization. Europe should continuously expand its extensive Electricity  
Replacement on the consumer side, and increase the proportion of electricity in final  
energy consumption. Meanwhile, it is necessary to improve energy utilization  
efficiency (for example by promoting energy-saving technological innovation,  
optimizing industrial structure, and promoting circular-economy utilization mode),  
further improve the electrification level in European production and life, and build a  
clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system for Europe.  
Accelerating the development of clean energy and achieving clean and  
diversified energy development. Europe must stick to the fundamental course of clean,  
low-carbon and highly efficient development in establishing European Energy  
Interconnection, accelerate the promotion of Clean Replacement, take full advantage of  
clean energy resources in Europe, and develop large-scale clean energy bases.  
Strengthening energy interconnection and promoting win-win cooperation.  
Europe is geographically adjacent to Africa and West Asia, giving it a foundation for  
energy cooperation. They are highly complementary in terms of energy resources,  
production and consumption. Large-scale development, rational use and optimal  
allocation of clean energy can provide a new impetus for coordinated development  
8
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
between Asia, Europe and Africa.  
9
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends  
3.1 Energy Demand  
Primary energy demand will gradually decline. Total primary energy in Europe  
will reach 3.60 billion tce by 2035 and 3.32 billion tonnes by 2050. The average annual  
decline from 2016 to 2050 is forecast to be about 0.6%. Per capita primary energy  
demand will also decline. Per capita energy demand in Europe will drop 18% from 5  
tce in 2016 to 4.1 tce by 2050.  
Figure 3-1 Primary Energy Demand by Fuel in Europe (2016−2050)  
The share of fossil energy in primary energy demand will continuously  
decline, and clean energy will become the dominant energy in Europe by around  
2025. Fossil energy demand in Europe will continuously decline, from 2.95 billion tce  
in 2016, to 0.93 billion tce by 2050. Coal, oil and natural gas demand will fall by 88%,  
72% and 55% respectively. Demand for clean energy in Europe will increase by 2.1  
times from 2016 to 2050, reaching 2.4 billion tce, with an average annual increase of  
2.2%. The proportion of clean energy in primary energy demand will increase from 30%  
to 78%1.  
The share of electricity in final energy consumption continuously increases,  
and electricity will become the dominant final energy around 2030. The proportion  
of power generating energy in total primary energy will increases from 39% by 2016 to  
1
When calculating the share of clean energy in total primary energy, fossil energy used for non-energy purposes  
is excluded. The same is true for the following ratios.  
10  
   
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
69% by 2050, while the share of electricity in final energy increases from 24% to 59%.1  
The proportions of coal, oil and natural gas in final energy will decrease by 73%, 70%  
and 41% respectively.  
Figure 3-2 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel and Share of Electricity in Europe  
3.2 Power Demand  
Total power demand in Europe will maintain steady growth. In 2050, the  
power demand will be 1.7 times and peak load will be 1.8 times that of 2017. The total  
power demand in Europe will increase from 4.8 PWh in 2017 to 6.7 PWh by 2035 and  
8.1 PWh by 2050. The average annual growth rate for 2017−2035 will be about 1.8%,  
and for 2036−2050 it will be about 1.1%; the peak load will increase from 800 GW in  
2017 to 1160 GW by 2035 and 1420 GW by 2050. Electricity consumption per capita  
in Europe is expected to be 8134 kWh per year by 2035 and 10033 kWh per year by  
2050.  
1
When calculating the share of electricity in total final energy consumption, fossil energy used for non-energy  
use purposes will not be counted. This is also the case in what follows.  
11  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 3-3 Electricity Consumption Forecast in Europe  
Electricity Replacement in the transport, heating and cooling sectors will be  
the main driving force of power demand growth. Heating/cooling demand is  
expected to increase by 1.3 PWh by 2035 and 1.7 PWh by 2050. In the transport sector,  
additional power demand will amount to around 380 TWh by 2035 and 850 TWh by  
2050.  
Large data centers will be the new growth momentum of power demand. The  
additional power demand of large data centers will rise to 400 TWh by 2035 and 620  
TWh by 2050, which will be roughly 8% of Europe’s total power consumption.  
3.3 Power Supply  
In order to meet Europe’s goals for clean energy transition and sustainable  
development, coal-fired and oil-fired generators will be entirely decommissioned and  
nuclear power reduction will be accelerated as well. Wind and solar energy  
development will be prioritized. Centralized and distributed development of clean  
energy will be proceeded simultaneously with the integration of intra-continental  
supply and external imports.  
The rapid fall in wind and solar power costs is creating fertile conditions for  
clean energy development. The competitiveness of solar photovoltaic power and  
onshore wind power is expected to outperform fossil fuel across the world before 2025.  
Europe is a world leader in the commercial exploitation of its abundant wind energy  
12  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
resources. Europe’s competitive edge in wind power will be further enhanced by  
increased industrial concentration, emerging synergic effects and sound policy schemes.  
Figure 3-4 Global and European Cost Forecasts for Wind and Solar  
Figure 3-5 Outlook for European Installed Capacity  
The share of clean energy in total generation capacity is growing, and the structure  
will continue with denuclearization and decarbonization. By 2035, the total installed  
capacity in Europe will be 2.88 TW. The proportion of clean energy installed capacity  
will increase from 54.5% in 2017 to 84%. European total installed capacity will be  
about 3.82 TW by 2050. The installed capacity of clean energy will reach 3.54 TW,  
accounting for 92.7% of the total. Clean energy generation will account for 5.5 PWh by  
2035, marking an increase to 80% from 52% in 2017. Clean energy generation will be  
about 7.4 PWh by 2050, accounting for 91% of the total.  
13  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
3.4 Electricity-Carbon Trading  
The overall development plan of the Electricity-Carbon Market is aimed at  
achieving clean and low-carbon sustainable development. Firstly, the market adopts  
the multi-level structure of “National market, EU regional market, Inter-regional  
market”. Secondly, the market participants include the market construction and  
management entities consisting of decision-making, trading, etc., as well as the market  
trading entities consisting of energy producing enterprises, transmission and  
distribution enterprises, etc. Thirdly, the market trading products include physical  
products such as electricity-carbon and auxiliary services, warrant products such as  
transmission capacity, and service products such as financial derivatives, data and  
consulting.  
Promote regional clean development and increase carbon emission reduction.  
The share of carbon emissions of the power sectors in EU will be reduced from 69.3%  
by 2016 to 30.3% by 2035, and 4% by 2050, compared to the 1990 level.  
Facilitate the expansion of green electricity trading and to promote  
integration in Europe. By 2050, apart from a small amount of reserve capacity, all the  
generation and loads in Europe will be traded in the unified electricity market,  
generating an annual transaction volume of 7900 TWh. The electricity-carbon trading  
will deliver a total of 7300 TWh in annual green electricity trading and 600 TWh in  
annual inter-continental green electricity trading.  
Figure 3-6 Scenarios of the Electricity-Carbon Trading by 2035  
14  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
4 Development Layout of Clean Energy  
Resources  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources  
Hydro Energy. The technical potential of hydropower in Europe is 3100  
TWh/year1, with an exploited ratio of about 30%. Hydropower resources in Europe are  
mainly distributed in the major mountain river systems, the upper stream of Tigris-  
Euphrates River Basin in Turkey and the Volga River Basin and the Yenisey River Basin  
in Russia.  
Wind Energy. Europe boasts abundant wind energy resources. Its theoretical  
potential is about 230 PWh/year2, and the annual average wind speed ranges from 2 m/s  
to 14 m/s at 100 m above the ground3. The annual average wind speed is typically “low  
in summer and high in winter”. Many areas in the coastal waters of Denmark and  
Greenland, and on the coasts of Ireland, UK, France, Germany and Poland, see wind  
speed greater than 7 m/s. Europe boasts extraordinary offshore wind energy resources,  
mainly distributed in the North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea., with  
the theoretical potential of about 6.5 TW.  
Figure 4-1 Illustration of Average Annual Onshore Wind Speed in Europe  
1 Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Resources: 2013 Survey, 2013  
2 Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection, 2015.  
3 Source: VORTEX  
15  
   
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 4-2 Illustration of Annual Average Offshore Wind Speed in Europe  
Solar Energy. Europe has rich solar resources. The theoretical potential of solar  
energy in the continent is about 12400 PWh/year1, and the annual GHI of solar energy  
2
ranges from about 700 kWh/m2 to 2100 kWh/m2. The areas with high GHI (annual  
GHI greater than 1500 kWh/m2) include Portugal, central and southern Spain, southern  
Italy, Greece and central and southern Turkey.  
Figure 4-3 Illustration of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Europe  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases  
Hydropower Bases. Considering the characteristics of hydropower and  
exploitation conditions, it is feasible to build hydropower bases in Northern Europe,  
Russia and Turkey.  
1 Source: Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection, 2015.  
2 Source: SOLARGIS.  
16  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Table 4-1 Hydropower Bases in Europe  
Unit: GW  
Projected  
installed  
Projected  
installed  
Exploited  
ratio  
Base name  
Country  
Related river systems  
capacity by capacity by  
2035  
58  
2050  
70.5  
Hydropower Norway  
base in  
60%  
50%  
River systems in  
Scandinavian  
Mountains  
Northern  
Europe  
Sweden  
34.5  
58  
35.5  
100  
Hydropower  
base in  
Volga, Yenisey, Ob  
and Lena River  
Basins  
Russia  
<20%  
<15%  
Russia  
Hydropower  
base in  
Tigris-Euphrates  
River Basin  
Turkey  
Total  
30  
60  
Turkey  
180.5  
266  
Wind Power Bases. Based on the resource characteristics and development  
conditions, it is recommended that both distributed and centralized modes can be  
adopted in the future exploitation of wind power in Europe. The coastal areas of the  
North Sea, Norwegian Sea, Baltic Sea, Greenland, and Barents Sea are prime candidates  
for large wind power bases.  
Table 4-2 Wind Power Bases in Europe  
Unit: GW  
Projected Projected  
Technical  
installed installed  
potential  
No. Base name  
Location  
Country  
capacity capacity  
installed  
capacity  
by  
by  
2035  
2050  
Wind power bases 1-  
5 on the coasts of  
eastern UK  
Wind power base 6  
on the coast of  
UK  
90  
12  
24  
Belgium  
Belgium  
Wind power bases 7-  
8 on the coasts of  
Netherlands  
1
North Sea  
Netherlands  
78  
133  
Wind power bases 9-  
10 on the coasts of  
northwestern  
Germany  
Wind power bases  
11-12 on the coasts  
Germany  
Denmark  
36  
84  
17  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Projected Projected  
installed installed  
capacity capacity  
Technical  
potential  
installed  
capacity  
No. Base name  
Location  
Country  
by  
by  
2035  
2050  
of western Denmark  
Wind power bases  
13-15 on the coasts  
of southern Norway  
Wind power bases 1-  
2 on the coasts of  
eastern Denmark  
Wind power base 3  
on the coast of  
Poland  
Norway  
Denmark  
Poland  
54  
27  
18  
Wind power base 4  
on the coast of  
Lithuania  
Wind power base 5  
on the coast of  
Latvia  
Wind power bases 6-  
8 on the coasts of  
Estonia  
Wind power bases 9-  
10 on the coasts of  
Finland  
Lithuania  
Latvia  
10.8  
10.8  
28.8  
21  
2
Baltic Sea  
45  
65.3  
Estonia  
Finland  
Sweden  
Norway  
Wind power bases  
11-14 on the coasts  
of Sweden  
46.8  
Norwegian Wind power bases 1-  
3
4
Sea  
3 on the coasts of  
western Norway  
Greenland Wind power bases 1-  
2 on the coasts of  
southeastern  
48  
30  
5
16  
Denmark  
and Iceland  
12  
14.3  
Greenland  
Barents  
Sea  
Wind power bases  
on the coasts of  
northern Norway and  
Russia  
Norway  
and Russia  
5
80  
12  
33.6  
合计  
621.2  
152  
262.2  
Solar Power Exploitation. According to the characteristics, distribution,  
development conditions and economy of solar energy resources in Europe, it is  
recommended that Europe follows the principle of “PV-based, CSP-assisted; distributed  
mode-based, centralized mode-assisted” to exploit the solar energy in Europe.  
Solar energy in Europe is mainly exploited through distributed BIPV. The  
utilization level of solar energy resources in Europe should be improved by vigorously  
18  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
developing industrial and commercial BIPV, and residential building rooftop PV with  
or without energy storage. It is projected that by 2035, the installed PV capacity in  
Europe will reach 650 GW, of which the installed PV capacity of distributed BIPV will  
account for about 80%, by 2050, the installed PV capacity in Europe will reach 960  
GW, of which the installed PV capacity of distributed BIPV will account for about 85%.  
Asmall number of centralized PV or CSPstations will be built in solar energy-  
rich regions in Southern Europe. In solar energy-rich regions such as Spain, Portugal,  
Italy, Greece and Turkey, the economic feasibility of centralized solar energy  
exploitation is preferable, due to the generally high level of solar energy availability  
and the cost reduction caused by scale effect. It is projected that by 2035, the installed  
CSP capacity in the above five countries will exceed 20 GW, and will reach 45 GW by  
2050.  
19  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
5 Power Grid Interconnection  
5.1 Power Flow  
Taking the energy resources of Europe and the power supply balance into account,  
the emphasis of each region will be as follows: Northern Europe will develop offshore  
wind power and hydropower and the Baltic States will develop offshore wind power.  
These two regions will be clean energy bases and export electricity to other regions.  
The British Isles will be able to balance internal demand, receiving clean power from  
Northern Europe and Greenland and then transmitting power to Western Europe as a  
clean energy transfer hub. Western Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe  
will have large power demand and become major load centers, receiving surplus intra-  
continental power from north regions and intercontinental power from Africa and Asia.  
Figure 5-1 Illustration of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Power Flow in European  
Energy Interconnection by 2050  
The bulk power flow of Europe will render such a pattern as “intracontinental  
power transmission from North to South and inter-continental power import from  
Africa and Asia”. In 2035, the inter-continental and inter-regional power transmission  
of Europe will reach 85 GW, including an inter-continental power flow of 39 GW and  
inter-regional power flow of 46 GW. In 2050, inter-continental and inter-regional power  
flow of Europe will reach 133 GW, including an inter-continental power flow of 75 GW  
and inter-regional power flow of 58 GW.  
20  
   
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern  
Figure 5-2 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection Pattern in Europe1  
With the power grid upgrading and the ongoing expansion of interconnection, a  
new power grid pattern will emerge in Europe. To put it plainly, the pattern will take  
the DC grid of the continent as the core, while connecting with wind power bases in the  
North Sea, Baltic Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea, hydropower bases in Northern  
Europe, and solar power bases in North Africa, West Asia and Central Asia.  
By 2035, the Europe DC power grid will begin to take shape. North Sea and  
Baltic Sea VSC-HVDC power grids will be constructed that integrates the offshore  
wind power by multiple large-capacity DC projects. The inter-continental  
interconnection will have six DC transmission lines to form the Asia-Europe-Africa  
interconnection pattern.  
On the basis of enhanced cross-border and inter-regional power grid  
interconnection, efforts will be made both within and beyond the region. Within  
Europe: several DC projects will be implemented that run across Norway−UK−France,  
Norway−Denmark−Germany, France−Germany, etc., to foster a looped DC grid that  
surrounds the North Sea. A three terminal DC project that connects Greenland, Iceland  
and UK will be built as well. DC projects connecting Finland−Latvia−Poland,  
1 All sites of stations and paths of transmission lines from figures in this report are schematic displays which do  
not strictly represent specific geographical  
locations.  
21  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Sweden−Denmark−Germany, and Poland−Germany, etc. will be pushed forward to  
build the Baltic Sea looped DC grid. Alooped UHVDC grid will take shape in the center  
of the continent of Europe. As for inter-continental efforts: projects of DC channels  
connecting Morocco with Portugal, Algeria with France, Tunisia with Italy, Kazakhstan  
with Germany, Egypt with Turkey and Saudi Arabia with Turkey will be built to realize  
Asia−Europe−Africa interconnection.  
By 2050, flexible and controllable VSC-HVDC grids will take shape in Europe.  
The region will extend DC grids to the North Pole and Eastern Europe, and scale up  
Asia−Europe−Africa power grid interconnection with up to eleven DC transmission  
lines.  
Within Europe: it will reinforce and extend DC grids surrounding the North Sea,  
Norwegian Sea, Baltic Sea and Barents Sea to the North Pole. Western, Southern and  
Eastern Europe will build ±800/±660 kV DC meshed grids to receive wind power  
from the north and solar power from the south, thus achieving mutual support. For  
inter-continental: it will import electricity from North Africa and West Asia through  
three vertical DC channels. The DC channels in the west run across the Iberian  
Peninsula to deliver electricity to Portugal, Spain and southeast France. Central DC  
channels stretch across the Apennine Peninsula to deliver electricity to load centers in  
Italy, France and central Germany. Those in the east run through the Balkan Peninsula  
and Turkey to deliver electricity to Eastern Europe and some in Southern Europe. Two  
DC channels will be built to receive clean energy from Central Asia.  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection  
British Isles will prioritize the development of wind power in the west North Sea  
and Ireland Sea, step up efforts on the construction of wind power transmission  
channels and transmission channels connecting Ireland with British island, southern  
and northern of the UK, and coastal areas of the North Sea. British Isles will play as the  
power exchange hub that receives Northern Europe’s power and delivers to Continental  
Europe, and eventually realize the widespread consumption and mutual support of clean  
energy. Within the region, UK will build ±800 kV DC power grid and Ireland Island  
22  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
will enhance the interconnection with British Island via DC projects to improve the  
power transmission ability. For interregional, 4 DC transmission projects will be built  
to receive clean power from Northern Europe and deliver surplus power to Western  
Europe.  
Figure 5-3 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of British Isles by 2050  
Northern Europe will lay greater emphasis on wind power in the coastal areas of  
the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Baltic Sea, and the southeastern coast of Greenland.  
Working together with the hydropower groups on both sides of the Scandinavian  
Mountains, they will increase level of clean power supply of relevant countries. At the  
same time, enhancing the interconnection channels with British Isles, Western Europe,  
Eastern Europe and RBUM will deliver portfolios of hydropower and wind power and  
realize cross-border and inter-regional mutual support. Within the region, multiple DC  
transmission channels will be built to cover the wind power bases, hydropower bases  
and load centers in the region. The cross-border power exchange will be enhanced. For  
interregional, the hydropower and offshore wind power will be transmitted to British  
Isles and Western Europe through 4 DC projects. The power will also be sent to Eastern  
Europe and RBUM through 2 DC projects.  
23  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-4 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Northern Europe by 2050  
Western Europe will focus on the development of wind power of North Sea in  
Germany, Netherlands, Belgium; solar energy of Southern Spain; and wind power on  
the Mediterranean coast of France. It will build a strong, flexible and controllable VSC-  
HVDC power grid that connects regional clean energy bases with load centers, to  
consolidate regional power exchange ability. The 400(380) kVAC grids of each country  
will be strengthened to boost the reliability of power supply. In the meantime, Western  
Europe will work on inter-continental and inter-regional transmission channels to  
facilitate transmission of wind power and hydropower from Northern Europe, and solar  
energy from North Africa and Central Asia, to achieve mutual support between different  
energy sources and efficient utilization. Within the region, a ±800/±660 kV VSC-DC  
grid will be built to cover the region. The ability of power exchange will be enhanced  
to realize wind, solar and hydro multi-energy mutual support. For interregional,  
Western Europe will be interconnected with those of Southern Europe, Eastern Europe,  
Northern Europe and British Isles, through 8 DC projects. In addition, the power from  
North Africa and Central Asia will be transmitted to Western Europe through 6  
intercontinental DC projects.  
24  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-5 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Western Europe by 2050  
Figure 5-6 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Southern Europe by 2050  
Southern Europe will vigorously develop solar energy bases in the south and  
wind power along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea and Aegean Sea. By reinforcing  
the vertical transmission channels of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula and interconnection  
between both sides of the Adriatic Sea, the south to north transmission capacity will be  
enhanced and receive power from North Africa. Within the region, Southern Europe  
will build 3 DC projects to increase power exchange across the Adriatic Sea. For  
interregional, Southern Europe will strengthen the interconnection with Eastern  
Europe and Western Europe through 4 DC projects. 2 DC projects will also be built to  
25  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
import solar power from North Africa.  
Eastern Europe will develop wind power of Baltic Sea and solar energy and  
hydropower in Turkey. It will strengthen 400 kV grids of countries within the region,  
enhance the power transmission capacity of south-north channels. It will enhance the  
inter-regional interconnection with Western Europe and Eastern Europe, and the inter-  
continental interconnection channels as well. Within the region, Eastern Europe is  
going to build a ±660 kV vertical DC channel to enhance the transmission from south  
to north. For interregional, Eastern Europe will interconnect with Western Europe,  
Southern Europe and Baltic States with 3 DC projects. 3 DC projects will also be built  
to receive power from West Asia and North Africa.  
Figure 5-7 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Eastern Europe by 2050  
Baltic States will develop the offshore wind power base and strengthen 330 kV  
grids and inter-regional interconnection channels. After satisfying local power demand,  
the surplus power will be sent to Eastern Europe. Within the region, on/offshore wind  
power integration channel and cross-border interconnection will be constructed to  
improve the transmission capacity. For interregional, a ±660 kV DC transmission  
channel will integrate offshore wind power and send power to Eastern Europe.  
26  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-8 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of Baltic States by 2050  
In RBUM, priority will be given to the establishment of large wind power bases  
in the north of Russia, Caucasus and the Far East. The region will also build large  
hydropower bases in Ural, Siberia and the Far East in Russia. The AC power grids of  
each country will be enhanced to satisfy local power demand and send the surplus  
power to East Asia. Within the region, Russia will upgrade the voltage level to 1000  
kV. A 1000 kV UHVAC looped grid and east-west transmission channels will be  
fostered. The Barents Sea wind power and Siberia hydropower will be sent to western  
load centers of Russia. For interregional, a ±660 kV DC project will be built to receive  
wind power from the Baltic sea.  
Figure 5-9 Illustration of Power Grid Interconnection of RBUM by 2050  
27  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects  
For inter-continental, 7 DC projects connecting Africa and Europe, 4 projects  
connecting Asia and Europe will be built, with the total transmission capacity of 75 GW.  
Table 5-1 Key Inter-continental Projects  
Voltage  
level  
(kV)  
Route  
length  
(km)  
Investment Trasmission  
Capacity  
(GW)  
No.  
1
Project name  
(billion  
USD)  
cost (US  
cents/kWh)  
Tangier, Morocco−Faro,  
Portugal DC project  
Laghout,  
Algeria−Toulouse,  
France kV DC project  
Tunis, Tunisia−Rome,  
Italy DC project  
Zayed, Egypt−Adana,  
Turkey DC project  
Zag, Morocco−Madrid,  
Spain DC project  
Ouargla, Algeria−Lyon,  
France−Frankfurt,  
Germany DC project  
Matrouh, Egypt−Athens,  
Greece−Lecce, Italy DC  
project  
±500  
±800  
3
260  
1.2  
1.65  
2
8
1400  
7.4  
2.63  
3
4
5
±800  
±660  
±660  
8
4
4
1300  
1100  
1800  
4.3  
4.2  
2.0  
1.53  
2.95  
1.23  
6
7
8
9
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
8
8
8
8
2400  
1700  
3500  
3900  
8.4  
8.4  
6.2  
6.7  
2.58  
3.01  
2.36  
2.58  
Aktobe,  
Kazakhstan−Munich,  
Germany DC project  
Kostanay,  
Kazakhstan−Nuremberg,  
Germany DC project  
Al Qassim, Saudi Arab  
ia−Istanbul, Turkey−Ha  
skovo, Bulgaria DC pr  
oject.  
10  
±800  
±800  
8
8
2800  
2200  
5.3  
4.7  
1.98  
1.73  
Ha’il, Saudi  
11 Arabia−Ankara, Turkey  
±800 kV DC project.  
For inter-regional, North Sea ±800 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid project, Baltic  
Sea ±800/±660 kV VSC-HVDC looped grid project, and Greenland−Iceland−UK ±800  
kV DC project will be built.  
Table 5-2 Key Inter-regional Projects  
Countries/regions Voltage  
Route Investment  
No  
.
Capacity  
(GW)  
Project name  
passed by the  
route  
level  
(kV)  
length  
(km)  
(billion  
USD)  
North Sea VSC-  
HVDC looped  
grid project  
Norway, UK,  
France, Germany,  
Denmark  
1
±800  
—
3400  
16  
28  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Countries/regions Voltage  
Capacity  
Route Investment  
No  
.
Project name  
passed by the  
route  
level  
(kV)  
length  
(km)  
(billion  
USD)  
(GW)  
Sweden, Finland,  
Latvia, Poland,  
Germany,  
Baltic Sea VSC-  
HVDC looped  
grid project  
±800  
±660  
—
—
1320  
1930  
2
3
10.2  
Denmark  
Greenland−  
Iceland−UK  
DC project  
Greenland,  
Iceland, UK  
±800  
8
2400  
17.3  
5.5 Investment Estimation  
By 2050, the total investment of European Energy Interconnection is estimated at  
4.9 trillion USD. 3.8 trillion USD will be invested in power sources and 1.1 trillion  
USD will be invested in power grids construction, accounted for 77% and 23%  
respectively.  
From 2019 to 2035, The investment of European Energy Interconnection will be  
about 3.1 trillion USD. About 2.5 trillion USD will be invested in power sources,  
accounting for 80%, of which distributed power investment will be about 1.2 trillion  
USD, accounting for 50% of power investment. The power grid investment will be  
about 0.65 trillion USD, accounting for 20%, of which UHV grid cost is about 80 billion  
USD, power grid of 330 kV and above cost is about 200 billion USD, and power grid  
of 220 kV and below cost is about 370 billion USD.  
From 2036 to 2050, the investment of European Energy Interconnection will be  
about 1.8 trillion USD. About 1.3 trillion USD will be invested in power sources,  
accounting for 72%, of which distributed power investment will be about 590 billion  
USD, accounting for 46% of power investment. The power grid has attracted an  
investment of about 490 billion USD, accounting for 28%, including about 70 billion  
USD in UHV grid cost, power grid of 330 kV and above cost is about 150 billion USD,  
and power grid of 220 kV and below cost is about 270 billion USD.  
29  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-10 Investment Scale and Structure of European Energy Interconnection  
30  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
6 Comprehensive Benefits  
6.1 Economic Benefits  
Boosting economic growth by investment, and promoting industrial  
development. With an accumulative investment of about 4.9 trillion USD by 2050,  
European Energy Interconnection will contribute an average of 1.9% to economic  
growth. Promoting the development of resources and enhancing the reliability of  
energy supplies. The construction of the European Energy Interconnection will not  
only improve the energy consumption structure, but also accelerate the diversified  
development of clean energy in Europe. The dependency on foreign energy will be  
continuously decreased and the energy efficiency will be gradually increased. Energy  
consumption intensity of the EU will decrease by 57%. In 2050, the share of clean  
energy in primary energy demand will be 78% in Europe, and the proportion of clean  
energy power generation will be 91%, leading the world in clean development.  
Bolstering green finance development. The electricity−carbon trading encourages the  
development of green finance and expands cross-border electricity trading, which is  
estimated over 7000 TWh by 2050. The integration of electricity and carbon markets  
will increase government revenue.  
6.2 Social Benefits  
Creating jobs. It is expected that the construction of the European Energy  
Interconnection will comprehensively promote the development of various industries  
and create about 27 million jobs by 2050. Reducing energy supply costs. It is predicted  
that in 2050, the average cost of power generation in Europe will be reduced by about  
40% compared with the current level. Improving the electrification level. By  
constructing the European Energy Interconnection and accelerating the formation of  
electricity-centered energy consumption structure, the electricity in Europe will  
overtake oil as the largest final energy in Europe by 2030. It will account for 59% of  
the final energy by 2050, exceeding the global average.  
31  
     
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
6.3 Environmental Benefits  
Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-related disasters. CO2  
emissions from the energy system will drop to about 2.7 Gt CO2/yr in 2035, 48% less  
than that in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario1, and further to about 1.1 Gt CO2/yr  
in 2050, 82% lower than that in the BAU scenario.Building European Energy  
Interconnection will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the source, and effectively  
lower the probability of extreme weather and disasters. Advanced transmission and  
smart grid technologies can be utilized to improve the disaster prevention capability  
and climate resilience of energy and power infrastructure. Reducing air pollutant  
emissions. By 2035, the European Energy Interconnection Scenario can reduce 4.2  
million tonnes of SO2, 8.2 million tonnes of NOx and 1 million tonnes of fine particulate  
matter per year compared with the BAU scenario. By 2050, the European Energy  
Interconnection Scenario can reduce 6.8 million tonnes of SO2, 15.5 million tonnes of  
NOx and 1.5 million tonnes of fine particles per year compared with the BAU scenario.  
Increasing the value of land resources. Compared with the BAU scenario, European  
Energy Interconnection scenario will increase the value of land resources by 13.5  
billion USD per year by 2035 and 18 billion USD per year by 2050.  
6.4 Political Benefits  
Strengthening the foundation of regional mutual trust. It will strengthen the  
cooperation among the European countries in the field of energy. Mutual trust in the  
region will be enhanced through consultation and cooperation for shared benefits of  
electric power projects among the countries. Promoting coordinated regional  
development. The endeavor will lead to a new regional energy governance system that  
is centered on clean development and interconnection. Meanwhile, the efforts  
encourage mutual support and coordinated development between different countries.  
Enhancing regional integration. European countries could share clean energy  
1 The BAU scenario developed by the Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems  
Analysis (IIASA) is a development path for economy, energy, power and emissions in a country  
continuing existing policies.  
32  
   
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
resources and engage in inter-continental or cross-border electricity trading. Energy  
trading and economic cooperation will greatly boost regional economic integration.  
European Energy Interconnection will also help Africa to develop in concert, ensuring  
a wider range of regional economic and social prosperity and stability.  
33  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5°C  
Temperature Control Target  
7.1 Situations and Requirements  
According to the IPCC1, achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target is of great  
significance for the global sustainable development and the well-being of all countries.  
Compared to the 2°C temperature rise scenario, the 1.5°C scenario can reduce the risks  
of the global climate system, and ensure safer natural and human systems. Extreme  
weather, biodiversity, water scarcity and overall global economic development risks  
from climate change will be significantly reduced. To reach the 1.5°C temperature  
control target, it is urgent for European countries to speed up mitigation. On the basis  
of building European Energy Interconnection, by accelerating Clean Substitution on the  
energy supply side, enhancing Electricity Substitution on the energy consumption side,  
rationally applying carbon capture and storage and negative emission technologies, the  
net zero emissions target by 2050 can be achieved, which will promote the global goal  
of 1.5°C temperature control.  
7.2 Implementation Paths  
The Clean Replacement will be accelerated in the energy supply side. It is  
essential to seize any opportunity to rapidly develop and upgrade new energy power  
generation technologies, formulate policies to support development in the clean energy  
industry, and establish mechanisms that are more conducive to scale-up, intensive  
development, large-scale complementary, and high-utilization of clean energy. In  
addition, Europe needs to further accelerate complementary development across hydro,  
wind, and solar energy, and multi-country collaboration, increase biomass energy  
development and utilization, rapidly increase the proportion of clean energy in  
European energy supply and reduce the amount of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas  
emissions.  
1
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  
34  
     
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Enhancing Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side. Policies  
such as providing financial subsidies and tax reductions should be implemented. The  
research and development of the related technologies should be further accelerated, so  
as to support the development of electrification industry and stimulate the potential of  
Electricity Replacement. Based on these approaches, the economic feasibility of  
Electricity Replacement can be improved, the scale of electricity consumption can be  
expanded, and the structure of final energy consumption can be modified.  
The application of carbon sequestration and reduction technologies should be  
promoted. Based on greater efforts to promote Clean Replacement on the energy  
supply side and Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side and to reduce  
GHG emissions, more supportive policies are needed to promote research, development,  
commercialization and large-scale application of carbon sequestration and carbon  
reduction technologies, which will directly reduce GHG in the atmosphere.  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes  
Europe will speed up Clean Replacement in energy supply side. Fossil fuel  
demand will reach the peak ahead of schedule and then decline rapidly. As to energy  
consumption side, it will forge ahead with in-depth Electricity Replacement and seek  
enhanced energy efficiency, will reduce the final energy consumption, and will secure  
a remarkable increase in the rate of electricity consumption within the total final energy  
consumption.  
Figure 7-1 Primary Energy Demand in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target  
35  
 
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
The primary energy demand in 2035 and 2050 will reach 3340 million and 3070  
million tce respectively, with an average annual decline rate of 0.8% from 2016 to 2050.  
The demand for fossil energy will peak around 2025, and then will fall back rapidly,  
and will decline to 440 million tce by 2050. Clean Replacement in Europe will  
continuously gather speed, lifting the proportion of clean energy in primary energy to  
62% and 93% by 2035 and 2050 respectively.  
Figure 7-2 Final Energy Consumption in Europe Achieving 1.5°C Temperature Control  
Target  
The final energy consumption will decline from 2016 to 2050, with an average  
annual decline rate of 1.2%. It will reach 2170 million tce and 1760 million tce by 2035  
and 2050, respectively. The consumption for fossil energy will record a sharp decline  
to 940 million and 300 million tce by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The in-depth  
Electricity Replacement will accelerate in final sectors. It is estimated that the  
proportion of electricity will reach 44% and 75% by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The  
share of electricity of industry, transport and building will reach 46% and 71%, 18%  
and 64%, 50% and 81% by 2035 and 2050, respectively.  
Power Demand. By 2035, the total electricity consumption in Europe will be  
about 7.1 PWh, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2%. The peak load will be  
about 1.22 TW, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%. By 2050, the total  
electricity consumption in Europe will be about 9.4 PWh, with an average annual  
growth rate of 1.9%. The peak load will be about 1.64 TW, with an average annual  
growth rate of 2%. The annual per capita electricity consumption will be 8.6 MWh in  
2035 and 12 MWh in 2050.  
36  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
Figure 7-3 Forecast of Electricity Demand in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature  
Control Target  
The proportion of clean energy in Europe will further increase. By 2035, the  
total installed capacity in Europe will be 3.07 TW, of which clean energy installed  
capacity will be 2.73 TW, and the proportion will increase from 54.5% in 2017 to 89%.  
The installed capacity of wind power, solar power, hydropower, nuclear power will be  
1.16 TW, 830 GW, 490 GW, 140 GW, respectively. By 2050, the total installed capacity  
in Europe will be 4.05 TW, of which clean energy installed capacity will be 3.92 TW,  
and the proportion will increase to 97%. The installed capacity of wind power, solar  
power, hydropower, nuclear power will be 1.91 TW, 1.14 TW, 630 GW, 100 GW,  
respectively. By 2035, clean energy generation will reach 6.3 PWh, increasing from 52%  
in 2017 to 87%. By 2050, clean energy generation will reach 9.2 PWh, up to 97%.  
Figure 7-4 Outlook of Power Generation Installed Capacity in Europe to Achieve the  
1.5°C Temperature Control Target  
Power Grid Interconnection. The large-scale clean energy transmission channel  
will be further strengthened. The development of clean energy in Northern Europe,  
37  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
NorthAfrica and Central Asia will be expanded. The scale of inter-continental and inter-  
regional interconnection will be strengthened. In 2050, the scale of inter-continental  
and inter-regional power flow will reach 157 GW, of which the inter-continental power  
flow will reach 91 GW and the inter-regional power flow will reach 66 GW. New  
transmission projects such as Morocco−Spain, Tunisia−France, Kazakhstan−Romania,  
Norway−Netherlands will be constructed. Within each region, the construction of cross-  
border and domestic AC grids will be strengthened. The capacity of transmitting and  
consuming clean energy will be strengthened.  
Figure 7-5 Illustration of Power Flow in Europe to Achieve the 1.5°C Temperature  
Control Target  
In order to achieve the global 1.5°C temperature control target, Europe will need  
to further reinforce the clean and low-carbon development. It will continuously improve  
the level of cleanliness and electrification, and power grid interconnection in response  
to the challenges of long-term climate change goals. Compared with the 2°C scenario,  
the 1.5°C scenario will reduce fossil energy demand by 53% in primary energy by 2050;  
will increase the proportion of clean energy exploitation that installed capacity of clean  
energy generation will increase by 10% by 2050; will accelerate Electricity  
Replacement, with the proportion of electricity in final energy consumption increased  
by about 16 percentage points by 2050; will strengthen grid interconnection with 24  
38  
Research and Outlook on European Energy Interconnection  
GW of inter-continental and inter-regional power flows increase; and will increase  
investment of clean energy exploitation and grid construction by 10% by 2050.  
Figure 7-6 Analysis and Comparison of Energy and Power in Europe under the 2°C and  
1.5°C Scenarios  
39