R e s e a r c h a n d O u t l o o k o n  
A f r i c a n E n e r g y  
I n t e r c o n n e c t i o n  
( B r i e f V e r s i o n )  
Global Energy Interconnection  
Development and Cooperation Organization  
(GEIDCO)  
Study Region  
This research reaches across 54 countries in Africa. According to geographic and  
cultural habits, Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and members of regional Power  
Pools, the areas researched have been divided into five sub-regions: North Africa, West  
Africa, Central Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa, illustrated as follows1.  
African Energy Interconnection Research Scope  
1
This research does not hold any position on the sovereignty of any territory, the delineation of international  
boundaries, and the names of any territory, city or region. The same for the rest of the research.  
I
 
Contents  
Study Region .........................................................................................................................I  
Contents.................................................................................................................................I  
1 Development in Africa...................................................................................................... 1  
1.1 Economy and Society............................................................................................. 1  
1.2 Resources and Environment................................................................................... 2  
1.3 Energy and Power .................................................................................................. 3  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development ....................................................... 6  
2.1 Development Challenges........................................................................................ 6  
2.2 Development Ideas................................................................................................. 6  
2.3 Development Priorities........................................................................................... 7  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends ........................................................................ 8  
3.1 Energy Demand...................................................................................................... 8  
3.2 Power demand........................................................................................................ 9  
3.3 Power Supply ....................................................................................................... 11  
4 Development and Layout of Clean Energy Resources................................................ 13  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources.............................................................. 13  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases............................................................................. 15  
5 Power Grid Interconnection .......................................................................................... 19  
5.1 Power Flow .......................................................................................................... 19  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern............................................................................................... 20  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection............................................................................. 22  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects ............................................................................... 27  
5.5 Investment Estimation.......................................................................................... 28  
6 Comprehensive Benefits................................................................................................. 30  
6.1 Economic Benefits ............................................................................................... 30  
6.2 Social Benefits...................................................................................................... 30  
6.3 Environmental Benefits........................................................................................ 30  
6.4 Political Benefits .................................................................................................. 31  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃ Temperature Control Targets ................ 32  
7.1 Situations and Requirements................................................................................ 32  
7.2 Implementation Paths........................................................................................... 32  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes ........................................................................................ 33  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
1 Development in Africa  
1.1 Economy and Society  
Africa's economy has developed rapidly. Africa has become the most important  
emerging market in the world and a key pole for growth in the global economy. Since the 21st  
century, Africa's economy has grown at an average annual rate of over 4%, solidifying Africa  
as one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Over the past decade, Africa's economic  
aggregate has doubled and it will maintain this momentum, reaching 3-6 times that of 2015 in  
2050. In the future, the transformation of Africa's foreign trade partners from developed  
countries to emerging economies will be a primary trend1.  
The demographic dividend has continued to be released. The continent’s population in  
2017 was 1.24 billion, accounting for 17% of the world’s population. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and  
Egypt hold the largest populations, 186 million, 106 million, and 96 million, respectively.  
According to projections from the UN, Africa's population growth rate tops the world, which  
will culminate in an expected 2.5 billion living on the continent by 20502. By 2030, Sub-  
Saharan Africa will contribute to nearly half of the world's growth in available labor force.  
Africa's working-age population will exceed 1.5 billion by 2050.  
Urbanization levels have increased at a rapid speed. Currently, the urban population in  
Africa totals 472 million. By 2040, this number will rise to 1 billion, and Africa will become  
the fastest urbanized region in the world. Estimates predict that the urbanization rate in Africa  
will reach 56% by 20503. In the future, with its rapid population growth, industrialization, and  
urbanization, Africa's internal consumption capacity will see significant upswings.  
African business environment is increasingly improving, ushering in new  
opportunities for industrial development. African countries have carried out institutional  
reforms to improve the efficiency in government management and administration. With the  
construction of national industrial parks being planned or underway, attractive and competitive  
preferential measures shall see the light of day. Enhancing Africa's global competitiveness and  
diversify foreign capital inflows. African countries can take advantage of their late-mover  
advantages and seize their window of opportunity of international labor-intensive industry  
transfer to accelerate establishing modern industrial systems and completing the transition from  
1
Source: Brookings Institution, Foresight Africa 2018  
Source: United Nations  
Source: the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).  
2
3
1
   
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
low-income agricultural countries to emerging industrialized economies in a short period.  
Advancements in African regional integration has facilitated Africa's economic boom.  
Africa has fundamentally achieved both peace and stability, becoming an important contributor  
in the international political arena and the world. In July 2019, the African Union Summit  
officially launched construction on the Free Trade Area. Realizing market integration will not  
only strengthen economic ties between African countries and unleash the economic potential of  
the entire continent, but also enhance equitable dialogue between Africa and the Western  
world/other economic forces.  
African Union, the Economic Community of sub-regions, and African countries have  
explored development paths of industrialization. African Union’s Agenda 2063 proposes  
long-term strategic visions for African industrialization, urbanization and regional integration.  
Sub-regional organizations in Africa have also developed comprehensive regional development  
plans, which focus on improving regional infrastructure and increasing industrial added value  
to promote regional economic integration and Africa's industrial development. Dozens of  
countries, such as the DR Congo, Congo, Egypt, South Africa, and Guinea have formulated  
medium- and long-term development plans and strategies. They will depend on their natural  
resources to extend the industrial chains, enhance the added value of products, and accept an  
intensive development path. Infrastructure construction for electricity, energy, transportation,  
communications, education and medical care has become the most prioritized area.  
1.2 Resources and Environment  
Africa is rich in mineral resources that constitute an important pillar supporting  
African resource-based economies. Gold, diamond, platinum group metals, bauxite,  
manganese ore, cobalt ore, and uranium reserves rank first in the world, and chromium,  
vanadium, titanium, copper, nickel and other resources are also very abundant. The potential  
for exploration and development is enormous. The reserves of bauxite, manganese ore, gold,  
phosphate and cobalt mines account for more than 50% of the world. The reserves of iron ore,  
copper and zinc mines account for more than 20% of the world's total.  
African clean energy resources are rich and diverse, compared with fossil energy. The  
discovered reserves of coal, oil and gas in Africa are 13.1 billion tonnes, 16.6 billion tonnes,  
and 14.4 trillion m³, accounting for 1.2%, 6.9%, 7.4% of the world’s total respectively. Africa  
has been gifted with a treasure trove of clean energy resources, where the theoretical reserves  
of hydro, wind, and solar energy are about 4.4 PWh/year, 650 PWh/year, 60000 PWh/year,  
2
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
accounting for 11%, 32%, and 40% of the total world amount, respectively.1 The present rate  
of development is extremely low, yet it is the continent with the greatest potential for clean  
energy development in the world. Africa cannot only meet its own development demands with  
these abundant clean energy resources, but it can also transform its resource advantages into  
economic advantages, exporting clean energy and power to Europe and other regions.  
Africa is primarily a tropical climate with an uneven distribution of water resources.  
Africa is known as the “tropical continent”. Areas with an annual average temperature above  
20℃ cover 95% of Africa. Precipitation and latitude share an inverse relationship, as latitude  
increases while moving away from the equator, and the river systems are unevenly distributed.  
Africa has the largest desert area of all continents, accounting for about 1/3 of Africa. The  
Sahara Desert is the largest deserts in the world.  
Africa is vulnerable to climate change and African countries are actively responding  
to climate change. African infrastructure is lacking, and its ability to respond to climate change  
is poor. Over the past decade, Africa has experienced an average annual economic loss of 670  
million USD because of climate disasters2. Consequently, African countries has paid great  
attention to and actively addressed climate change. Major African countries have signed the  
Paris Agreement and formulated NDC targets for climate change as well as medium and long-  
term emission reduction strategies.  
1.3 Energy and Power  
Energy production first increased but then decreased, while energy consumption  
kept growing, dominated by fossil fuels and traditional biomass. Africa's total energy  
production continued to rise until 2010, falling slightly to 1.56 billion tons of coal equivalent  
(tce) in 2016. Total primary energy demand grows continuously, reaching 1.17 billion tce in  
2016. Energy consumption per capita energy consumption was 0.96 tce, equivalent to 35% of  
the global average. Traditional biomass and fossil energy accounted for 45% and 49% in  
primary energy. In addition to traditional biomass energy, clean energy’s share is only 6%, far  
below the global average. From 2000 to 2016, total final energy consumption in Africa  
increased from 0.46 billion tce to 0.82 billion tce, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7%,  
accounting for 4.0% of the global total. Electricity’s share was remained steady at  
1
Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnetion, 2015  
Data source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and  
2
Nutrition, 2019.  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
approximately 9%, far below the global average.  
Figure 1-1 Primary Energy Demand Structures in Africa in 2016  
Figure 1-2 Final Energy Consumption Structures in Africa in 2016  
Electricity consumption level in Africa is generally low, and the problem with access  
to electricity still exists. In 2016, Africa's total electricity consumption was about 637 TWh.  
North Africa and Southern Africa account for 82%. Electricity consumption per capita in Africa  
is 518 kWh/year, which is less than 1/5 of the world average and characterized by “higher in  
the north and south, and lower in the middle”. Africa's overall electricity accessibility is quite  
low, only just reaching 52% in 2016, with 590 million people without access to electricity,  
accounting for more than half of the world. Power supply is primary from fossil fuel power  
sources, and installed capacity per capita is far below the world average. In 2016, Africa's  
total installed capacity was approximately 190 GW, and clean energy installed capacity was  
approximately 43.6 GW, accounting for about 23% of the total. In 2016, Africa's installed  
capacity per capita was 0.16 kW, about 1/5 of the world average.  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Table 1-1 Basic Power Development Situation in Africa in 2016  
Installed  
capacity  
（GW）  
Power consumption per  
capita  
Electricity access  
rate  
Power consumption  
Peak load  
（GW）  
Regions  
（TWh）  
（kWh/year）  
（%）  
North Africa  
West Africa  
Central Africa  
East Africa  
87.9  
22.6  
5.9  
275.2  
56.4  
18.1  
40.3  
1448  
157  
139  
119  
58.1  
10.4  
3.1  
100  
52  
27  
13.6  
8.5  
38  
Southern  
Africa  
63.6  
246.6  
1233  
47.7  
45  
Total  
193.6  
636.6  
518  
127.8  
52  
The grid infrastructure in Africa is generally weak, and its interconnection scale is  
relatively small. National grids in Africa generally face problems with low coverage, weak  
transmission capacity, high power loss rate, and low power supply reliability. Except for a few  
countries such as South Africa, the voltage level for transmission grids in many countries is 330  
kV or below. Some countries do not even have a high-voltage transmission network. Inter-  
regionally, except for those between North Africa and Southern Africa, the remaining regions  
are loosely connected, the power exchange capacity is small, and voltage levels on  
interconnected channels are low and inconsistent. Inter-continentally, Africa has initially  
formed an interconnection with Europe and Asia. North Africa have the 400 kV Morocco-Spain  
double-circuit AC lines that connect them to Europe and the 400 kV Egypt-Jordan AC line that  
connects them to Asia.  
5
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable  
Development  
2.1 Development Challenges  
Economic and social development both lack sufficient sustainability. Africa’s economy  
is at a relatively low development level. In 2017, Africa’s GDP per capita was less than 2000  
USD, only 1/5 of the global average. The development of Africa faces some challenges, for  
example, the economy is fragile due to its single structure, and the foundation for urbanization  
development is weak. In addition, it is difficult to finance infrastructure projects due to the  
imperfect financial market. Energy development is at a relatively low level. The accessibility  
to electricity and other modern energy is relatively low in Africa. The high proportion of  
primary energy, the low efficiency of energy use and the high cost of energy use have restricted  
economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. Industrialization and  
growth in energy demand have put further pressure on Africa to reduce emissions. The energy  
development model of "exporting primary energy and importing secondary energy" has  
greatly affected the economy. Most African countries rich in resources rely heavily on  
exporting crude oil, natural gas, and other primary energy products in exchange for income,  
while importing refined oil and other products. Such a primary energy-driven development  
model has put African countries under the unfavorable effects of price scissors in the  
international oil and gas industry.  
2.2 Development Ideas  
To achieve sustainable development in Africa, the key is accelerating clean energy  
development, strengthening energy infrastructure interconnection, and achieving energy  
transition, along with green and low-carbon development. African Energy  
Interconnection is an important part of Global Energy Interconnection. The overall  
development ideas are as follows. Firstly, accelerate development of large hydropower bases  
in major river basins, wind and solar power power bases in the south, north and east, as well as  
distributed electricity generation, which could resolve the energy shortage problem and reduce  
the use of primary biomass energy. Secondly, strive to ensure local demand for electricity,  
expanding power transmission to the exterior, speed up construction on backbone grids across  
various countries, and promote cross-border, inter-regional, and inter-continental grid  
interconnection. Thirdly, focus on resolving the problem of electricity accessibility, build and  
6
     
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
upgrade the energy and power infrastructure, improve electrification levels and energy  
efficiency, and reduce energy and electricity cost, making sustainable energy available to  
everyone.  
2.3 Development Priorities  
Achieve leaps in energy development in a green and low-carbon pathway. Accelerate  
Clean Replacement, which will transit energy production from fossil fuels to clean energy to  
guarantee and spur development in African industrialization, urbanization, and integration.  
Regarding electricity as the center in energy to improve the electrification level of  
production and living. Accelerate Electricity Replacement, which will also escalate energy  
infrastructure construction and the public service capacity, greatly increasing the proportion of  
electricity in final energy consumption. Strengthening interconnection to promote win-win  
cooperation. African Energy Interconnection will strengthen energy and power interconnection  
to transform locally balanced distributions of energy into cross-border and inter-continental  
large-scale allocation. Coordinating the regional and industrial development to achieve co-  
development model of "electricity, mining, metallurgy, manufacturing, and trade" (Co-  
Development Model). Based on abundant clean energy and mineral resources, Co-  
Development Model will form a mutually beneficial industrial chain with profits shared both  
by upstream and downstream industries. A virtuous cycle of capital investment, resource  
development, industrial development, and exports can be achieved to transform resource  
advantages into economic advantages that can be used to build pillar industries and enhance  
development. Thus, the modes of development for energy, the economy, and industry will  
fundamentally change to ensure sustainable development across Africa.  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends  
3.1 Energy Demand  
Primary energy demand will increase rapidly, and the growth rate is highest among  
the continents. In 2035 and 2050, primary energy demand will increase to 1.92 and 2.55 billion  
tce. From 2016 to 2050, the average annual growth rate of primary energy demand will be about  
2.3%. West Africa and Southern Africa will have a large share of energy demand, and energy  
demand in Central Africa and East Africa will grow fast. Energy demand per capita will  
slightly increase. From 2016 to 2050, Africa’s energy demand per capita will increase from 0.9  
to 1.0 tce, seeing an increase of about 10%.  
The share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand continues to decline. Around 2040,  
clean energy will surpass fossil fuels to become the leading energy resource in Africa. Coal  
demand will peak in 2030 at 0.16 billion tce. Oil demand will increase to 0.50 billion in 2035  
and then remain stable. Natural gas demand will be increasing, but the growth rate will  
gradually slow down, and in 2050 natural gas will reach 0.53 billion tce. From 2016 to 2050,  
clean energy in Africa will increase by 2.3 fold to 1.37 billion tce. The clean energy share in  
primary energy will increase from 52% in 2016 to 56% in 2050.  
Figure 3-1 Primary Energy Demand in Africa  
Final energy consumption will double, and industrialization will be the main driving  
force. In addition, electricity will account the highest final energy consumption share  
around 2045. In 2050, final energy consumption in Africa will be twice that of 2016, and the  
growth rate will gradually slow down. Industrialization has driven the rapid growth in energy  
8
   
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
use, contributing 41% of the total increase of energy. From 2016 to 2050, the share of power  
generation energy in primary energy will increase from 24% to 46%, and the share of electricity  
in final energy consumption will increase from 10% to 32%.  
Figure 3-2 Final Energy Consumption by Sectors in Africa  
3.2 Power demand  
African power demand will increase rapidly. The main driving force is  
industrialization with the focus on co-development model of “electricity, mining,  
metallurgy, manufacturing, trade”. Based on the industrial base and resource endowments  
across various regions, five regional economic circles in the Gulf of Guinea, Eastern Africa, the  
Congo River, Southern African, and the Mediterranean will drive rapid growth in power  
demand. Among them, West Africa will give full play to its resource and regional advantages,  
developing industrialization based on mineral development and smelting. Central Africa will  
exert sufficient hydropower and mineral resources to build Africa's clean energy and  
metallurgical base. Southern Africa will focuse on the development of mining and industrial  
parks. North Africa, as the Asia-Europe-Africa hub, will promote the transformation and  
upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries and accelerate the development of emerging  
technology industries.  
9
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Figure 3-3 Layout of Key Industrial Developments in Various Regions of Africa  
The total power demand and peak load in 2050 will be 6.1 fold and 5.5 fold that in  
2016, respectively. Total African power demand will increase from 0.64 PWh in 2016 to 2.3  
PWh in 2035 and 4.0 PWh in 2050 with an average annual growth rate of 6.9% in 2016-2035  
and 3.8% in 2036-2050. Peak load will increase from 130 GW in 2016 to 410 GW in 2035 and  
710 GW in 2050. African electricity consumption per capita will increase significantly, reaching  
1565 kWh/year in 2050, which is 3 fold compared to that in 2016, equivalent to the global level  
in 1980. Further growth can be foreseen. From the perspective of sectors, the rapid development  
in industry and mining will drive the industrial sector to be the major contributor towards power  
consumption growth, contributing 46% of the total increase. In terms of geographical  
distribution, demand in North, West, and Southern Africa is relatively high, and demand in West,  
Central, and Eastern Africa is growing more quickly.  
10  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Figure 3-4 Power Demand Forecast in Africa by Regions  
Electricity accessibility will increase significantly, and Africa will reach its goal of  
universal access to electricity in 2050. In 2035, due to the rapid development in transmission  
and distribution grids, microgrids, and distributed generation, Africa's total electricity access  
rate will reach 90%. In 2050, with further improvements to urbanization level and the gradual  
improvements to distribution grids in remote areas, all African people will have access to  
electricity.  
3.3 Power Supply  
Clean energy resources in Africa are abundant in amount, various in type, and widely  
dispersed. The complementary benefits from multiple energy sources across various time zones  
and seasons are quite significant. As the cost of clean energy power generation continues to  
decrease, economic and scale advantages from clean energy development will become even  
more prominent, leading to diversified development in electricity supply. These will  
effectively promote clean development in electricity supplies in Africa.  
Clean energy generation costs are gradually lower than fossil fuels. It is estimated that  
LCOE of PV and wind power in Africa will be completely lower than that of fossil fuels by  
2030. As the technology of large-scale energy storage is becoming more and more mature, and  
reasonable configuration with wind and solar power, together with the implementation of  
source-grid-load-storage coordination optimization control, clean energy flexible regulation  
capacity, can become the main power supply, ensuring safe and stable operation of power  
systems with high peneatreation of clean energy.  
11  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Figure 3-5 Estimated LCOE of Various Power Sources in Africa  
In the future, Africa's power supply structure will gradually shift from fossil fuel  
dominant to co-developing hydro, wind and solar power, and the total power generation  
installed capacity will be greatly improved. In 2035, the total installed capacity in Africa will  
reach 710 GW. The proportion of clean energy will increase from 23% in 2016 to 62%. In 2050,  
the total installed capacity in Africa will reach 1310 GW, 6.8 times that in 2016. The clean  
energy proportion will keep increasing to 77%, of which the proportion for the non-hydro  
renewable energy installed capacity will increase to 55%. In 2050, Africa's clean energy  
generation will be approximately 3.0 PWh, accounting for 68% in total.  
Figure 3-6 Outlooks of Installed Capacities in Africa  
12  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
4 Development and Layout of Clean Energy  
Resources  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources  
Hydropower. The theoretical reserve of hydro energy in Africa is 4.4 PWh/year, and the  
technical potential installed capacity is approximately 340 GW. Hydro energy resources are  
primarily located in the basins of the Congo River, Nile River, Niger River, and Zambezi River,  
which account for nearly 80% of all hydro energy resources in Africa. Central Africa, where  
the Congo River Basin is located, possesses more than half of the total in Africa. In terms of  
countries, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Angola have abundant hydro energy resources.  
Figure 4-1 Technical Potential of Hydroenergy in Africa  
Wind Energy. The theoretical potential of wind energy in Africa is 650 PWh/year1, and  
the wind energy technical potential is about 67 PWh/year, both ranking first in the world.  
Presently, wind energy resources are underdeveloped but still have great potential waiting to be  
1
Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection.  
13  
   
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
tapped. The annual average wind speed is about 2-11 m/s at 100 m above the ground1. Areas  
with an annual average wind speed greater than 7 m/s are mainly distributed on parts of  
Morocco, Mauritania, Somalia, Namibia, South Africa, Algeria, Libya, Chad and Sudan.  
Figure 4-2 Distributions of Annual Average Wind Speeds in Africa  
Solar Energy. The theoretical potential for solar energy in Africa is 60000 PWh/year2,  
ranking first in the world. Currently, solar resources are underdeveloped and still have the great  
potential that can be exploited. The global horizontal irradiation (GHI) in Africa ranges  
approximately from 1,200 to 2,800 kWh/m. Direct normal irradiation (DNI) in Africa ranges  
approximately from 500 to 3000 kWh/m3. The areas with higher GHI or DNI are mainly  
distributed in the Sahara Desert and surrounding areas, as well as Namibia, Botswana, northern  
South Africa and other subtropical arid areas. Excluding unexploitable areas, the technical  
potential of PV is about 665 PWh/year, and the technical potential of concentrated solar power  
(CSP) is about 470 PWh/year. Solar resource is the clean energy with the highest potential for  
development in Africa.  
1
Source: VORTEX  
Liu Zhenya, Global Energy Interconnection.  
Source: SOLARGIS, Solar resource information database.  
2
3
14  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Figure 4-3 Distributions of Global Horizontal Irradiant in Africa  
Geothermal Energy. The technical potential installed capacity of geothermal energy in  
Africa is approximately 20 GW, primarily concentrated in the East African Great Rift Valley.  
The geothermal energy sources are mainly concentrated in Kenya and Ethiopia with technical  
exploitable capacities of 10 GW and 7 GW, respectively. Only 4% of geothermal energy  
resources have been exploited in Africa1. Almost all operating geothermal power stations are  
located in Kenya.  
Bioenergy. Africa has about 810 million hectares of land suitable for biofuel crops,  
accounting for 29% of the global total2. The vast lands in Central Africa, West Africa, and  
Southern Africa are suitable for planting biofuel crops. Only some countries in East Africa and  
Southern Africa have bioenergy installed capacity higher than 100 MW, still with great potential  
for future development.  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases  
Considering distribution, development conditions, and statuses of clean energy resources  
1
Source：IRENA，Renewable Energy Statistics 2018.  
Source: IRENA, Global Bioenergy Supply and Demand Projections. 2014  
2
15  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
and combined with regional and national energy and power development plans, by 2050, 37  
large-scale clean energy bases could be developed with a total technical potential installed  
capacity of 3.3 TW, including 4 large-scale hydropower bases, 21 solar power bases, and 12  
wind power bases.  
Figure 4-4 Layout of Major Clean Energy Bases in Africa  
Hydropower bases. In the future, the development priorities should be given to four major  
hydropower bases, the Congo River, Nile River, Zambezi River, and Niger River Basins. In  
2050, the installed capacity for major hydropower bases is expected to exceed 190 GW, and the  
exploited ratio will be approximately 80%. It is worth mentioning that the casade power stations  
in the lower Congo River, with Grand Inga as its core, with a total installed capacity of 110 GW  
and an annual generation of 690 TWh, will become the largest clean energy base in Africa.  
Table 4-1 Basic Information of the Four Major Hydropower Bases in Africa  
Technical  
potential (GW)  
Exploited ratio Installed capacity by Installed capacity by  
Basins  
(%)  
2035 (GW)  
2050 (GW)  
Congo River  
Nile River  
Zambezi River  
Niger River  
150  
60  
16  
2
40  
30  
10  
10  
115  
48  
15  
15  
33  
10  
20  
16  
16  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Technical  
potential (GW)  
Exploited ratio Installed capacity by Installed capacity by  
Basins  
Total  
(%)  
2035 (GW)  
2050 (GW)  
246  
8
90  
194  
Wind Power Bases. Considering resource characteristics and development conditions, it  
is advantageous to build large wind power bases in the Sahara and surrounding areas, the  
Atlantic coast in southern Africa, and some inland areas in east Africa. By 2050, the total  
installed capacity of the 12 large-scale wind power bases will be approximately 52 GW.  
Table 4-2 Basic Information of Large Wind Power Bases in Africa  
Unit: GW  
Installed capacity Installed capacity  
Technical potential  
installed capacity  
No.  
Location  
Country  
by 2035  
by 2050  
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Matruh  
Misrata  
Egypt  
Libya  
Tunisia  
Algeria  
Morocco  
Sudan  
Sudan  
Ethiopia  
Kenya  
25  
28  
8
5
1
1
1.5  
1.5  
0.8  
0.8  
1.2  
1.2  
1
9
2
2
3
4
3
3
5
4
Monastir  
Ghazaouet  
Essaouira  
Dongola  
Ed Dueim  
Jijiga  
North Horr  
Mariental  
Fraserburgh  
Orapa  
28  
20  
20  
15  
10  
12  
12  
26  
18  
222  
10  
11  
12  
Namibia  
South Africa  
Botswana  
4
10  
3
5
1
21  
Total  
52  
Solar Power Bases. Considering resource characteristics and development conditions, it  
is advantageous to build large solar power bases in the Sahara and areas in west, east, and  
southern Africa. By 2050, the total installed capacity of 21 large-scale wind power bases will  
be approximately 220 GW.  
Table 4-3 Basic Information of Large Solar Power Bases in Africa  
Installed  
capacity  
by 2035  
(GW)  
Installed  
capacity  
by 2050  
(GW)  
Technical  
potential  
installed  
Technical  
potential  
(TWh/year)  
No.  
Location  
Country  
capacity (GW)  
1
2
Minya  
Aswan  
Ouargla  
Laghouat  
Al Jawsh  
Zag  
Egypt  
Egypt  
359.4  
304.2  
629.1  
514.8  
196.6  
226.5  
164.7  
100.6  
241.4  
201.2  
160  
130  
320  
250  
100  
110  
80  
10  
10  
5
30  
20  
16  
12  
8
3
Algeria  
Algeria  
Libya  
4
8
5
5
6
Morocco  
Morocco  
Tunisia  
Niger  
4
8
7
Zagora  
Remada  
Agadez  
Kayes  
3
6
8
50  
8
10  
6
9
120  
100  
2.5  
2
10  
Mali  
6
17  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
11  
12  
13  
14  
15  
16  
17  
18  
19  
20  
21  
Rosso  
Mauritania  
221.3  
140.8  
161.0  
576.5  
535.4  
370.6  
247.1  
140.8  
100.6  
321.9  
161.0  
5915.5  
110  
70  
1.5  
2
5
4
Ouagadougou Burkina Faso  
Kano  
Nigeria  
Sudan  
80  
7
16  
7
Dongola  
280  
260  
180  
120  
70  
2
Ad-Damir  
Dire Dawa  
South Horr  
Karasburg  
Tshabong  
Pretoria  
Sudan  
2
6
Ethiopia  
Kenya  
2
12  
8
2
Namibia  
Botswana  
South Africa  
Angola  
4
15  
4.5  
20  
3.5  
223  
50  
2
160  
80  
10  
2
Lubango  
Total  
2880  
94  
18  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
5 Power Grid Interconnection  
5.1 Power Flow  
Considering coordination between power source development, power demand distribution,  
and clean energy development, development orientations for each region are as follows. West  
Africa and Southern Africa are rich in mineral resources, leading to rapid growth of power  
demand. However, local clean energy resources are limited and volatile, creating challenges to  
ensuring a reliable power supply for industrial and mining loads. In the future, they will become  
the main load centers. Central Africa and North Africa have abundant clean energy resources.  
They will be the main clean energy bases, with the large-scale development of hydropower on  
the Congo River in Central Africa and solar power in North Africa. EastAfrica will meet power  
demands in the regions and surrounding areas by developing Nile River hydropower and East  
African Rift geothermal initially. In the long-term, it will also become a load center.  
Figure 5-1 Illustration of Major Power Flows in Africa in 2050  
Future power flow in Africa is generally in the pattern “Central Africa exports power to  
North and Southern Africa, realizing mutual complementation with Asia and Europe”. In  
19  
   
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
2035, inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach 67 GW, of which 30 GW is  
inter-continental. In 2050, inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach 141 GW,  
of which 54 GW is inter-continental.  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern  
With the upgrades to power grids and continuous expansion of interconnection, three  
synchronous power grids will gradually be formed in Africa, namely, North Africa power grids,  
Central & West Africa power grids and East & Southern Africa power grids. Asynchronous grid  
connection will be realized via UHV/EHV DC channels among synchronous power grids.  
North Africa synchronous grids. Based on existing pattern, the AC voltage level will be  
upgraded to 1000 kV. 1000 kV AC channels across the east and west will be constructed,  
connecting major solar power & wind power bases, and load centers within the region, forming  
an important energy allocation platform to connect Asia, Europe and Africa. Central & West  
and East & Southern Africa synchronous grids. Internal 765/400 kV AC backbone power  
grid will be constructed to form a regional clean energy optimal allocation platform. The power  
of large-scale clean energy bases in the region will be transmitted to main load centers through  
EHV/UHV DC. Inter-continental interconnection with Europe and Asia. The west, central,  
east transmission channels across the Mediterranean Sea will be constructed to bundle and  
transmit solar power of North Africa to Europe. Africa – West Asia interconnection will be  
constructed to realize wide-range allocation of clean energy.  
By 2035, Africa will form “one horizontal and two vertical” backbone power grids.  
Meanwhile, inter-continental grid interconnections will reach fruition among Asia,  
Europe and Africa. With power grids in different countries and regions continuing to be  
improved, in terms of intra-continental interconnection, the D. R. Congo‒Guinea, Congo‒  
Ghana, Ethiopia‒South Africa, Cameroon‒Nigeria, and other DC projects will be constructed  
to deliver the Congo River, Nile River, and Sanaga River hydropower to load centers in West  
and Southern Africa. In terms of inter-continental interconnection, Morocco‒Portugal,  
Tunisia‒Italy, Algeria‒France, and Egypt‒Turkey DC projects will be constructed to transmit  
North Africa’s solar and wind power to Europe; Saudi Arabia‒Egypt and Ethiopia‒Saudi Arabia  
DC projects will be constructed to achieve grid interconnection between Asia and Africa.  
By 2050, with strong Energy Interconnection established fundamentally, Africa will  
have “one horizontal and two vertical” backbone power grids and the scale of Asia,  
Europe and Africa Interconnection will continue to increase. In terms of intra-continental  
20  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
interconnection, the North Africa 1000 kV AC power transmission channel Africa and other  
regions’ 765/400 kV AC main power grids would continue to be improved. North, Central &  
West, and East & Southern Africa power grids will form 3 robust and synchronous power grids.  
DC interconnection among synchronous power grids will be improved with the construction of  
UHV DC projects, such as the D. R. Congo‒South Africa, D. R. Congo‒Nigeria, D. R. Congo‒  
Morocco, D. R. Congo‒Ethiopia, and Ethiopia‒Egypt. In terms of inter-continental  
interconnection, Morocco‒Spain, Algeria‒France‒Germany, Egypt‒Greece‒Italy DC projects  
will be constructed to improve the transmission capability from North Africa to Europe.  
Figure 5-2 Illustration of African Energy Interconnection  
21  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection  
North Africa will focus on developing large solar power bases and coastal wind power  
bases. Meanwhile, by fully utilizing its geographical advantages whereAsia, Africa, and Europe  
converge, a regional clean energy hub platform can be constructed. Intra-regionally, a double-  
circuit 1000 kV AC power transmission corridor running from east to west will be constructed,  
and extended north to the Mediterranean coast. The 400/500 kV AC main power grids in these  
countries will be strengthened to cover clean energy bases and load centers, supporting  
collection and delivery of clean energy power. Inter-regionally, D. R. Congo-Morocco ±1,100  
kV and Ethiopia-Egypt ±800 kV DC channels will be constructed to receive electricity from  
the Congo River hydropower base and to complement with East Africa. Six trans-  
Mediterranean DC channels will be built, including Morocco‒Portugal ±500 kV DC, Algeria‒  
France ±800 kV DC,Tunisia‒Italy ±800 kV DC, Egypt‒Turkey ±660 kV DC and so on. Two  
Saudi Arabia-Egypt DC channels will be constructed to increase the exchange capacity between  
North Africa and West Asia to 7 GW.  
Figure 5-3 Illustration of North African Power Grid Interconnections in 2050  
West Africa will focus on coordinated development of power sources grids, thus solving  
the problem of electricity accessibility and forming a unified regional backbone grid. Inter-  
regionally, through receiving hydropower from Central Africa, hydropower, wind power and  
22  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
solar power can complement with each other. Thus, the co-development of "electricity-mining-  
metallurgy-industry-trade" in Africa can be achieved. Intra-regionally, "one horizontal and  
three vertical" 765 kV grids in the east and " three horizontal and two vertical” 765 kV grids in  
the west will be formed, to double the circuits forming a strong backbone grid, supported by  
330 kV and 225 kV grids, respectively. Inter-regionally, Cameroon-Nigeria and Congo-  
Nigeria ±660 kV DC channels will be constructed, receivng Sanaga and Congo River  
hydropower. Two D.R. Congo-Guinea ±800 kV DC channels and Congo-Ghana ±800 kV DC  
project will be built, receiving hydropower from the lower Congo River to meet the demands  
of industrial and mining development.  
Figure 5-4 Illustration of West African Power Grid Interconnections in 2050  
Central Africa will focus on coordinating hydropower development and trans-regional  
power delivery, upgrading of power grid construction within the region and inter-regional  
power interconnection. Priority shall be given to meet the industrialization development of the  
region and the needs of residential electricity. Surplus power will be transmitted to major load  
centers in Africa through UHV/EHV transmission channels. Intra-regionally, a 765/400 kV  
transmission channel will be constructed, realising mutual support between the northern and  
southern part of the region, facilitating the Congo River, Sanaga River, Ogooue River  
hydropower development and delivery. 400/225 kV main grids of each nation will be  
23  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
comprehensively strengthened to improve the coverage of the power grids. As for the important  
industrial and mining load centers, ±660 kV or ±500 kV DC channels will be constructed. Inter-  
regionally, hydropower from the downstream Congo River will be delivered to West Africa and  
Southern Africa through seven ±800 kV DC channels such as D.R. Congo-South Africa and  
one ±660 kV DC channel, namely, Congo-Nigeria. Through D.R. Congo-Morocco ±1100 kV  
DC channel, hydropower will be delivered to Europe jointly with solar power from NorthAfrica.  
Besides, Cameroon-Nigeria ±660 kV DC channel will trasmitt Sanaga hydropower to load  
centers in Nigeria.  
Figure 5-5 Illustration of Central African Power Grid Interconnections in 2050  
East Africa will focus on improving power grid coverage, enhancing interconnection  
between northern and southern power grids to achieve multiple energy complementarity, and  
solidifying its position as an important hub for African grid interconnection. Intra-regionally,  
24  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
765/500 (400) kV AC backbone grids will be built, connecting major energy bases and load  
centers. Domestic 500/400/220 kV AC grids will be comprehensively strengthened and  
extended the densely populated areas without grid coverage. The power exchange capacity  
between the north and south will be significantly enhanced. Inter-regionally, interconnection  
with Southern Africa will be achieved via the Ethiopia‒South Africa ± 800 kV DC project and  
a Tanzania‒Zambia double-circuit 400 kV AC line. The Ethiopia‒Saudi Arabia ±660 kV DC  
project will be constructed, delivering hydropower to the Gulf countries. The D. R. Congo‒  
Ethiopia ± 800 kV DC and Ethiopia-Egypt ± 800 kV DC projects will be built to interconnect  
East and North, East and Central Africa. Utilizing the East African hydropower stations’  
regulation capacities, it can become a buffer for African Energy Interconnections.  
Figure 5-6 Illustration of East African Power Grid Interconnections in 2050  
25  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Southern Africa will focus on strengthening grid interconnections, constructing the  
main grids connecting clean energy bases and load centers in the area, improving the regional  
power exchange capacity and power supply reliability, and expanding network coverage to  
enable universal access to electricity. Intra-regionally, the 765/400 kV synchronous power  
grids in Southern Africa will be constructed, forming three vertical transmission channels to  
enable Namibian solar power, Zambezi River hydropower and Botswana solar power to be sent  
to South Africa. Inter-regionally, the Ethiopia-South Africa ±800 kV DC project will be  
constructed to interconnect East and Southern Africa. D.R. Congo‒South Africa ±800 kV DC,  
D.R. Congo‒Zambia ±800 kV DC and D.R. Congo-Angola 400 kV AC transmission channels  
will be constructed, receiving hydropower from downstream Congo River.  
Figure 5-7 Ilustration of Southern African Power Grid Interconnection in 2050  
26  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects  
The key inter-continental projects include four ± 800 kV DC, two ± 660 kV DC, and  
one ± 500 kV DC channels to Europe; and two ± 660 kV DC, and one ± 500 kV DC  
interconnectors with Asia. The total transmission capacity is expected to be 54 GW.  
Table 5-1 Key Inter-Continental Projects in Africa  
Voltage Level Capacity  
Length  
(km)  
Investment  
(billion USD) (US Cents/ kWh)  
Tariff  
No.  
1
Project  
(kV)  
(GW)  
Tangier, Morocco—Faru,  
Portugal DC  
±500  
3
260  
1.2  
1.65  
Laghout, Algeria—  
Toulouse, France DC  
Tunis, Tunisia−Rome,  
Italy DC  
Zayed, Egypt−Adana,  
Turkey DC  
2
3
4
5
±800  
±800  
±660  
±660  
8
8
4
4
1400  
1300  
1100  
1800  
7.4  
4.3  
4.2  
2.0  
2.63  
1.53  
2.95  
1.23  
Zag, Morocco−Madrid,  
Spain DC  
Ouargla, Algeria −Lyon,  
France −Frankfurt,  
Germany DC  
Matrouh, Egypt−Athens,  
Greece−Lecce, Italy DC  
Medina, Saudi  
Arabia−Tabuk, Saudi  
Arabia−Cairo, Egypt DC  
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia  
−Riyadh, Saudi Arabia  
Tabuk, Saudi  
6
7
8
±800  
±800  
±500  
8
8
3
2400  
1700  
1300  
8.4  
8.4  
1.6  
2.58  
3.01  
1.51  
9
±660  
±660  
4
4
2000  
700  
2.1  
1.4  
1.50  
0.98  
10  
Arabia−Cairo, Egypt  
The key inter-regional projects include two ± 660 kV DC, seven ± 800 kV DC, and one  
± 1100 kV DC channels from Central Africa hydropower bases and two ± 800 kV DC  
interconnectors among East Africa, Southern Africa, and North Africa. The total transmission  
capacity will be 85 GW.  
Table 5-2 Key Inter-Continental Projects in Africa  
Voltage Level Capacity  
Length  
(km)  
Investment  
(billion USD) (US Cents/ kWh)  
Tariff  
No.  
1
Project  
(kV)  
(GW)  
Grand Eweng, Cameroon  
−Oshogbo, Nigeria DC  
Grand Inga, D. R. Congo  
− Kerouane, Guinea  
−Linsan, Guinea DC  
Pioka, Congo−Lagos,  
Nigeria DC  
±660  
4
1100  
1.5  
8.7  
1.06  
2.46  
2
±800  
8
4500  
3
4
±660  
±800  
4
8
2000  
2800  
2.6  
5.9  
1.38  
1.59  
Pioka, Congo−Kumasi,  
Ghana DC  
27  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Voltage Level Capacity  
Length  
(km)  
Investment  
(billion USD) (US Cents/ kWh)  
Tariff  
No.  
5
Project  
(kV)  
(GW)  
Grand Inga, D. R. Congo  
−Benin city, Nigeria  
Pioka, D. R. Congo  
−Boké, Guinea DC  
Grand Inga, D. R. Congo  
−Lubumbashi, D. R.  
Congo−Kabwe, Zambia  
DC  
±800  
8
2000  
4500  
4.9  
7.8  
1.31  
2.34  
6
±800  
±800  
8
8
7
2200  
5.7  
1.52  
Grand Inga, D. R. Congo  
−Cape town, South  
Africa DC  
Grand Inga, D. R. Congo  
−Zag, Morocco DC  
Pioka, D. R. Congo  
−Addis Ababa, Ethiopia  
DC  
Guba, Ethiopia−Minya,  
Egypt DC  
Gibe, Ethiopia  
−Johannesburg, South  
Africa DC  
8
±800  
±1100  
±800  
±800  
±800  
8
10  
8
3800  
6500  
4000  
2200  
4000  
7.0  
12.2  
7.2  
1.96  
2.60  
2.05  
1.35  
2.06  
9
10  
11  
12  
8
3.7  
8
5.7  
The key cross-border projects include ± 1000 kV UHV AC grids in North Africa and  
765/400 kV AC grids in West, Central, East and Southern Africa. The total transmission  
capacity will 85 GW. It is estimated that the length of newly built lines will be approximately  
23000 kilometers and will require a total investment of approximately 45 billion USD.  
5.5 Investment Estimation  
From 2019 to 2050, the total investment in African Energy Interconnection will be  
approximately 3.2 trillion USD. Approximately 2.0 trillion USD will be invested in power  
sources, accounting for 64%, including 1.6 trillion USD in clean energy power sources,  
accounting for 50% of the total investment. The power grids investment will be approximately  
1.2 trillion USD, accounting for 37% of the total investment.  
28  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-8 Investment Scales and Structures of African Energy Interconnection from 2019 to  
2050  
From 2019 to 2035, the investment in African Energy Interconnection will be  
approximately 1.9 trillion USD. Approximately 1.2 trillion USD will be invested in power  
sources, accounting for 63%. Clean energy power generation investments will be approximately  
876 billion USD, accounting for 46% of the total investment. Distributed power generation  
accounts for nearly 10% in power supply investments. The power grid investment is  
approximately 700 billion USD, accounting for 37%, for 500/400 kV and above, approximately  
149 billion USD, and 330/220 kV and below, approximately 519 billion USD.  
From 2036 to 2050, the investment in African Energy Interconnection will be  
approximately 1.3 trillion USD. Approximately 800 billion USD will be invested in power  
sources, accounting for 62%. Clean energy power generation investments will be approximately  
710 billion USD, accounting for 55% of the total investment. Distributed power generation  
accounts for about 13% in power supply investments. The power grid investment is  
approximately 500 billion USD, accounting for 37%, for 500/400 kV and above, approximately  
135 billion USD, and 330/220 kV and below, approximately 383 billion USD.  
29  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
6 Comprehensive Benefits  
6.1 Economic Benefits  
Promoting development in clean energy and mineral resources to hasten resource  
advantages transforming into economic ones. This will dig deep into the advantages of  
energy and mineral resources endowments in the countries of the region, and turn the  
exceptional resources that have yet to be completely developed and utilized into valuable  
wealth. Meeting demand increases in energy consumption to stimulate rapid economic  
growth. Constructing the African Energy Interconnection will create a stable and economic  
energy supply system, providing clean power guarantees for large mines, metallurgical bases  
and industrial parks. By 2050, the total investment in the African Energy Interconnection will  
total approximately 3.2 trillion USD, and the annual contribution rate to Africa's economic  
growth can reach 2.1%. Achieving a clean, sustainable, and reliable supply of energy and  
power. By 2050, Africa's clean energy will account for more than 56% of its primary energy,  
and electricity generated by clean energy will account for about 68% of total electricity  
generation. Increasing foreign exchange earnings and achieving balanced development. By  
2050, Africa's electricity import and export trade will earn about 36 billion USD. Areas that are  
lagging behind in terms of economic growth but rich in clean energy resources can transform  
their resource advantages into economic ones to spur economic development.  
6.2 Social Benefits  
Reducing energy supply costs. It is predicted that in 2050, the average cost of power  
generation in Africa will be reduced by about 50% compared with the current level, and the  
benefits will be very significant. Making electricity available to all. The rate of electricity  
access will reach more than 90% by 2035 and achieve universal access by 2050. Improving  
health. It will reduce correlating diseases by 2-3 million cases per year in Africa. Promoting  
employment. By 2050, more than 100 million new jobs from the related industries will be  
created in Africa.  
6.3 Environmental Benefits  
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be effectively reduced. The African Energy  
Interconnection can help reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system to about 1.8 GtCO2/yr  
30  
       
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
by 2035, 24% less than that in the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario1, and further to about 1.7  
GtCO2/yr in 2050, 56% lower than that in the BAU scenario. Reducing air pollutant emissions.  
By 2035, the African Energy Interconnection Scenario can reduce 0.9 million tonnes of sulfur  
dioxide and 0.2 million tonnes of fine particulate matter per year when compared with the BAU  
scenario. By 2050, the African Energy Interconnection Scenario can reduce 3 million tonnes of  
sulfur dioxide and 0.7 million tonnes of fine particulate matter per year when compared with  
the BAU scenario. Increasing the value of land resources. Compared with the BAU scenario,  
the African Energy Interconnection scenario will increase the value in land resources by 600  
million USD per year by 2035 and 1.4 billion USD per year by 2050.  
6.4 Political Benefits  
Strengthening political trust. By constructing the African Energy Interconnection, clean  
energy sharing, power interconnection and intercontinental and cross-border transactions  
among multiple countries will be attained. Economy and energy cooperation as well as  
economic energy cooperation and political trust will be strengthened. Facilitating peaceful  
development. It will accelerate the formation of a new pattern for energy governance in Africa  
featuring cooperation, openness, connectivity, and mutual benefits. Political, military, and  
diplomatic inconsistencies, and conflicts triggered by competition for energy and resources will  
be unlikely to occur, thus effectively promoting peaceful and harmonious development.  
Serving regional integrated development. By constructing the African Energy  
Interconnection, all regions and countries in Africa will strengthen cooperation in energy and  
better establish strong partnerships with each other. It will serve to promote peace and harmony  
across Africa, helping the continent revive and build a community interlinked by a shared  
destiny.  
1
The BAU scenario developed by the Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a  
development path for economy, energy, power and emissions in a country continuing existing policies.  
31  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Targets  
7.1 Situations and Requirements  
According to the IPCC1 , Achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target is of great  
significance for the global sustainable development and the well-being of all countries.  
Compared to the 2°C temperature rise scenario, the 1.5°C scenario can reduce the risks of the  
global climate system, and ensure safer natural and human systems. Extreme weather,  
biodiversity, water scarcity and overall global economic development risks from climate change  
will be significantly reduced. To reach the 1.5°C temperature control target, it is urgent for  
African countries to speed up mitigation. On the basis of building African Energy  
Interconnection, by accelerating Clean Substitution on the energy supply side, enhancing  
Electricity Substitution on the energy consumption side, rationally applying carbon capture and  
storage and negative emission technologies, the net zero emissions target by 2050 can be  
achieved, which will promote the global goal of 1.5°C temperature control.  
7.2 Implementation Paths  
The Clean Replacement will be accelerated in the energy supply side. It is essential to  
seize every opportunity to rapidly develop and upgrade new energy power generation  
technologies, formulate policies to support development in the clean energy industry, and  
establish mechanisms that are more conducive to scale-up, intensive development, and high-  
utilization of clean energy. In addition, Africa needs to further accelerate complementary  
development across hydro, wind, and solar energy, and multi-country collaboration, increase  
biomass energy development and utilization, rapidly increase the proportion of clean energy in  
African energy supply and reduce the amount of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions.  
Enhancing Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side. Policies such as  
providing financial subsidies and tax reductions should be implemented. The research and  
development of the related technologies should be further accelerated, so as to support the  
development of electrification industry and stimulate the potential of Electricity Replacement.  
Based on these approaches, the economic feasibility of Electricity Replacement can be  
improved, the scale of electricity consumption can be expanded, and the structure of final  
1
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  
32  
     
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
energy consumption can be modified.  
The application of carbon sequestration and reduction technologies should be  
promoted. Based on greater efforts to promote Clean Replacement on the energy supply side  
and Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side and to reduce GHG emissions,  
more supportive policies are needed to promote research, development, commercialization and  
large-scale application of carbon sequestration and carbon reduction technologies, which will  
directly reduce GHG in the atmosphere.  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes  
Africa should speed up Clean Replacement on the energy supply side. Fossil energy  
demand will peak in advance and then fall rapidly. For the energy consumption side, it  
should forge ahead with thorough Electricity Replacement and seek enhanced energy  
efficiency, securing a remarkable increase in the electrification rate.  
Primary energy demand in 2035 and 2050 will reach 1.72 and 2.37 btce, respectively, with  
an average annual growth rate of 2.1% from 2016 to 2050. Coal demand will peak around 2020,  
and demand for oil and natural gas will peak around 2035 and then decrease rapidly. Clean  
Replacement in Africa will continue to gather momentum, lifting the clean energy share in  
primary energy to 63% and 80%, by 2035 and 2050, respectively.  
Figure 7-1 Africa’s Primary Energy Demand Fulfilling the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
Final energy consumption demand in 2035 and 2050 will reach 1.13 and 1.39 btce,  
respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.6% from 2016 to 2050. The end demand  
for fossil energy will peak around 2035, reaching 370 mtce, and decline to 320 mtce by 2050.  
33  
 
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
In-depth Electricity Replacement will accelerate in end use sectors. It is estimated that the  
electricity share will reach 41% by 2050. The electrification rates of industry, transport, and  
building will reach 24%, 25% and 42% by 2050.  
Figure 7-2 Africa’s Final Energy Consumption Fulfilling the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
Africa’s total power demand will grow rapidly, and power consumption in 2050 will  
be 7 times that in 2016. In 2035, total power consumption in Africa will increase to 2.4 PWh,  
with an average annual growth rate of 7.2% from 2016 to 2035. The peak load will be 430 GW.  
In 2050, power consumption in Africa will reach 4.5 PWh, with an average annual growth rate  
4.3% from 2036 to 2050. The peak load will be 807 GW. Africa’s power consumption per capita  
in 2050 is expected to reach 1760 kWh/year, which is equivalent to the global level in late 1980s.  
Figure 7-3 Africa’s Electricity Consumption to Achieve the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
34  
Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
Africa’s installed capacity scale will further increase, and the proportion of clean  
energy installed capacity will continue to heighten. In 2035, the total installed capacity in  
Africa will be 830 GW, of which 560 GW of clean energy power sources. The proportion will  
increase from 22% in 2016 to 68%, becoming the dominant power source. The installed  
capacity of wind, solar and hydropower will be 130, 260 and 150 GW. The total installed  
capacity of fossil fuel will be 260 GW, which details a significant drop from 78% in 2016 to  
32%. In 2050, total installed capacity in Africa will be 1.78 TW, of which 1.48 TW from clean  
energy power sources, an increase of 83%. The installed capacity of wind, solar and hydropower  
will be 340, 820 and 280 GW. The share of fossil fuel installed capacity will continue to drop  
to until it reaches 17%. The clean energy generation will be 4.4 trillion kWh, accounting for  
86% in total generation.  
Figure 7-4 Outlooks on African Installed Capacity Fulfilling the 1.5℃ Temperature Control  
Target  
Regarding of grid interconnection, based on clean energy resources across various  
regions in Africa, the development scale for large-scale clean energy bases in North Africa, East  
Africa, and Southern Africa will increase. Moreover, the trans-Mediterranean power  
transmission channels will be further bolstered so that the transmission scale to Europe will  
expand. In 2050, the inter-continental and inter-regional power flow will reach about 170 GW,  
of which the inter-continental power flow will be 70 GW, and the inter-regional power flow  
will be 100 GW. Other than interconnections in the 2℃ scenario, the Morocco-Spain ±800 kV  
DC project and Tunis-France-Germany ±800 kV three-terminal DC project will be built as well.  
As a result, transmission power from North Africa to Europe will increase to 59 GW, and the  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
trans-Mediterranean regional grid interconnections will be closer, enabling efficient operations  
in the regional electricity market.  
Figure 7-5 Africa’s Power Flow Patterns Fulfilling the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
With the goal to help meet the global temperature control target of 1.5℃, Africa  
needs to respond to the pressures from carbon emissions brought about by  
industrialization and urbanization, achieve clean and low-carbon development, and  
intensify development in clean, electrified, and interconnected energy and electricity.  
Compared with the 2°C scenario, the 1.5°C scenario will reduce fossil energy demand by 52%  
in primary energy by 2050; increase the clean energy utilization proportion, as clean energy  
installed capacity will increase by 49% by 2050. Accelerate Electricity Replacement, with an  
electrification coverage increasing by about 10 percent in final energy consumption by 2050;  
enhances grid interconnections, which will see a 30GW increase in intercontinental and cross-  
regional power flows. Investment in clean energy exploitation and grid construction will  
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Research and Outlook on African Energy Interconnection  
increase by 20% in cumulative terms by 2050.  
Figure 7-6 Analysis and Comparison of Energy and Power in Africa under the 2°C and 1.5°C  
Scenarios  
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