R e s e a r c h a n d O u t l o o k o n  
C e n t r a l a n d S o u t h  
A m e r i c a n E n e r g y  
I n t e r c o n n e c t i o n  
( B r i e f V e r s i o n )  
Global Energy Interconnection  
Development and Cooperation Organization  
(GEIDCO)  
Study Region  
This research covers 48 countries and areas in Central and South America. Central and  
South America is further divided into 5 regions based on the geography, culture and grid  
frequency, including Eastern South America (Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana),  
Southern South America (Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay), Western South  
America (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru), Central America (Guatemala, Belize, El  
Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama) and the Caribbean (28 countries  
and areas including Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Trinidad and  
Tobago, etc.).  
Illustration of Regions of Central and South America1  
1
This report does not hold a position on the sovereignty status of any territory, the delimitation of international borders  
and the names of any territory, city or region, same for the following.  
I
 
Contents  
Study Region .........................................................................................................................I  
Contents.................................................................................................................................I  
1 Development in Central and South America ................................................................. 1  
1.1 Economy and Society............................................................................................. 1  
1.2 Resources and Environment................................................................................... 2  
1.3 Energy and Power .................................................................................................. 2  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable Development ....................................................... 6  
2.1 Development Challenges........................................................................................ 6  
2.2 Development Ideas................................................................................................. 6  
2.3 Development Priorities........................................................................................... 7  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends ........................................................................ 8  
3.1 Energy Demand...................................................................................................... 8  
3.2 Power Demand ....................................................................................................... 9  
3.3 Power Supply ....................................................................................................... 10  
4 Development Layout of Clean Energy Resources ....................................................... 13  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources.............................................................. 13  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases............................................................................. 15  
5. Power Grid Interconnection......................................................................................... 17  
5.1 Power Flow .......................................................................................................... 17  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern............................................................................................... 18  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection............................................................................. 21  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects ............................................................................... 29  
5.5 Investment Estimation.......................................................................................... 30  
6 Comprehensive Benefits................................................................................................. 31  
6.1 Economic Benefits ............................................................................................... 31  
6.2 Social Benefits...................................................................................................... 31  
6.3 Environmental Benefits........................................................................................ 32  
6.4 Political Benefits .................................................................................................. 32  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5 ºC Temperature Control Target.................. 34  
7.1 Situations and Requirements................................................................................ 34  
7.2 Implementation Paths........................................................................................... 34  
I
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
1 Development in Central and South  
America  
1.1 Economy and Society  
Continued growing economy and complete industrial system. The GDP of  
Central and South America in 2017 was 4.8 trillion USD, accounting for 5.9% of the  
global total, of which South America contributed 4.25 trillion USD, accounting for 89%  
of the Central and South America total. The per capita GDP was 9400 USD. Argentina,  
Brazil and Chile are major economies in Central and South America, other countries  
have preliminary industrial foundations or their own competitive industries.  
High-potential human resources and solid basis for regional integration. In  
2017, the population of Central and South America was 510 million, accounting for 6.8%  
of the global total. According to UN projections, the population of Central and South  
America will grow slowly in the future, reaching 580 million in 2035 and 610 million  
in 2050. The youth population proportion in Central and South America is relatively  
high. The population in Central and South America has relatively high education level，  
and the higher education enrollment level exceeds 60%. International organizations,  
such as CELAC and Pacific Alliance, have been dedicating to improving regional  
integration and trade interdependence.  
Central and South American countries are actively exploring development  
paths according to their national conditions to foster endogenous impetus for  
sustained and steady economic growth. Brazil has issued a number of policies in the  
past decade, identifying a number of emerging industries, including automobile  
manufacturing, information technology, medical biology, shipbuilding, aviation,  
plastics and paper. In order to ensure the implementation of the policy, the government  
has set up the Brazilian Industrial Development Agency, a corporate innovation  
financing fund and a science and technology special fund for important industries, and  
gives priority to purchasing domestic manufacturing products. Argentina focuses on  
supporting industries such as automobiles and accessories, pharmaceutical,  
petrochemistry, and implements industrial integration strategies to increase the  
industrial competitiveness and added value of products. Chile has introduced a series  
of measures to improve the business environment, foster innovation culture and provide  
capital support, aiming to attract entrepreneurial talents from all over the world and  
1
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
create a Silicon Valley of Latin America. Honduras focuses on tourism, textile,  
processing and trade services, aiming to create 600 thousand jobs in five years.  
Trinidad and Tobago promotes the transforming of the economy from dependence on  
the oil industry to a diversified modern industry, focusing on the development of finance,  
aviation, software design, modern agriculture and other industries.  
1.2 Resources and Environment  
Rich in mineral, oil and natural gas resources, clean energy with great  
development potential. Central and South America is endowed with world's 25 most  
valuable mineral resources. Besides widely-distributed Iron ore, copper reserves in  
Chile and Peru represent more than 40% of the global total. Lithium reserves in the  
“lithium triangle” (Bolivia, Argentina and Chile) exceed 23 million tonnes, accounting  
for 64% of the global total. The proven reserves of oil are about 51.1 billion tonnes,  
accounting for 21% of the global total. Venezuela has proven oil reserves of around 48  
billion tonnes, which accounts for 20% of the global total, ranking first in the world.  
The proven reserves of natural gas are about 8.2 trillion m3, accounting for 4.2% of the  
global total. Hydropower reserves mainly concentrate in the Amazon River and the La  
Plata-Paraná River basins. Wind energy reserves mainly concentrate in Argentina and  
northeastern Brazil. Solar energy reserves mainly concentrate in the Atacama Desert.  
Despite low carbon emissions, Central and South America is vulnerable to  
climate change, and Central and SouthAmerican countries are proactively dealing  
with climate change. Most of Central and South America has a tropical rainforest and  
savanna climate, and about half of the land is covered by forest. In 2016, the annual  
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion were about 1.2 Gt  
CO2/year, accounting for 3.7% of the global total. Some countries are heavily  
influenced by extreme weather. The Caribbean suffers losses of approximately 1.4  
billion USD per year due to hurricanes.1To deal with climate change, major countries  
have signed the Paris Agreement to formulate National Determined Contributions  
(NDCs) and medium and long-term emission reduction strategies.  
1.3 Energy and Power  
Oil and natural gas dominate energy production. In 2016, energy production  
1
Data source: UNEP, Global Environment Outlook 6: Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean,  
2016.  
2
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
in Central and South America was 1.28 billion tonnes of coal equivalent (tce), and oil  
and natural gas account for 43.3% and 16.2% respectively. Fossil fuel accounts for  
more than half of the total primary energy consumption, and hydro and biomass  
energy account for much higher than the global average. In 2016, Central and South  
America’s primary energy demand totaled 1.09 billion tce1. The share of fossil fuel was  
about 58%. The shares of hydro energy and bioenergy demand are as high as 23% and  
17% respectively, about 17 and 8 percentage points higher than the world average.  
Final energy consumption is dominated by oil, natural gas and biomass energy,  
and the share of electricity is increasing. In 2016, the total final energy consumption  
in Central and South America was 0.7 billion tce. Oil, biomass and natural gas  
accounted for 47%, 20% and 13% respectively. The share of electricity increased from  
16% in 2000 to 18% in 2016.  
Figure 1-1 Primary Energy Demand Structure in Central and South America in 2016  
Figure 1-2 Final Energy Consumption Structure in Central and South America in 2016  
Power consumption level is lower than world average, while overall access to  
electricity is relatively high. In 2016, the total power consumption of Central and  
South America was about 1100 TWh2, the maximum load about 200 GW and the annual  
power consumption per capita 2083 kWh. The installed capacity of clean energy  
1
Primary energy equivalent calculation adopts the Partial Substitution method, same for the following.  
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.  
2
3
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
accounts for a large proportion of the total capacity, with hydropower making up  
nearly half. In 2016, the total installed capacity in Central and South America was  
approximately 360 GW, and the installed capacity of clean energy 210 GW, accounting  
for 58% of the total. The installed capacity of non-hydro renewable energy was  
approximately 38 GW, accounting for 11% of the total. The installed capacity of  
hydropower was approximately 170 GW, accounting for 46% of the total. The installed  
capacity of thermal power was approximately 150 GW, accounting for 42% of the total.  
The installed capacity per capita was 0.7 kW, lower than the world average (0.8 kW).  
Table 1-1 Electric Power Development of Each Region in Central and South America in  
2016  
Installed  
capacity  
(GW)  
Power  
consumption  
(TWh)  
Annual power  
consumption per capita  
(kWh)  
Maximum  
load  
(GW)  
Access to  
electricity  
(%)  
Region  
Eastern South  
America  
166.36  
79.32  
72.78  
17.97  
24.57  
361  
512.5  
223.7  
207.5  
45.8  
2449  
2701  
1616  
965  
86.19  
40.09  
38.24  
8.36  
100  
99  
98  
92  
84  
97  
Southern South  
America  
Western South  
America  
Central America  
The Caribbean  
Total  
74.5  
1737  
2083  
22.29  
195.17  
1064.0  
Major countries have well-developed power grids, and there is a basis for  
cross-border power grid interconnection. Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia,  
and Uruguay have relatively strong 500 kV (Venezuela 400 kV) AC main grids. Thanks  
to transmission projects of large-scale hydropower stations, the highest voltage in Brazil  
reaches 750 kV AC and ±800 kV DC, and 765 kV AC in Venezuela. Peru and Chile  
have initially formed 500 kV AC grids, while other countries have AC grids of 230 kV  
and below. Based on the transmission projects of large cross-border hydropower  
stations such as the Itaipu, grid interconnections through 750 kV, 500 kV, or 230 kVAC  
or DC back-to-back transmission channels have been formed between Brazil in Eastern  
South America and Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay in Southern South America. In  
Western South America, grid interconnections with relatively small exchange capacity  
have been formed through 230 kV and 115 kV AC channels, connecting Colombia,  
Ecuador and Venezuela. Central America has a 230 kV AC channel connecting six  
countries from Guatemala to Panama.  
Central and South American countries have accelerated the pace of energy  
4
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
transition, and formulated a series of supporting policies and development goals  
for the development of renewable energy.1 Argentina's Renewable Energy Law  
specifies that by 2025, renewable energy generation (except “large hydropower” with  
an installed capacity higher than 30 MW) will account for 20% of the total generation,  
equivalent to the installation of 10 GW of renewable energy generation capacity. Chile  
plans to generate 20% of its total power from renewable energy (except “large  
hydropower” with an installed capacity higher than 20 MW) by 2025. The National  
Energy Policy 2050 proposes that 60% and 70% of the total power generation in Chile  
will be through renewable energy by 2035 and 2050, respectively. Brazil plans that  
renewable energy will account for 43% of primary energy supply by 2023, and  
renewable energy generation accounts for 86% of total generation. By 2030, 20% of its  
total power will be generated through non-hydro renewable energy. The member  
countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) plan to generate 28% of their  
total power with renewable energy by 2022, and 47% by 2027.  
1
Information source: IRENA, Renewable Energy in Latin America 2015-An Overview of Policies, 2015; NRF,  
Renewable energy in Latin-America, 2017; Government agencies of energy sector in relevant countries.  
5
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
2 Challenges and Ideas of Sustainable  
Development  
2.1 Development Challenges  
The impetus for economic growth is low, and the competitiveness in  
manufacturing is decreasing. Since 2011, Central and South America has been  
suffering from slow economic growth. In 2017, the share of manufacturing in GDP of  
major countries fell to around 10%. The construction of infrastructure is lagging  
behind, and the capabilities in terms of securing and allocating energy and power  
requires improvement. The transport, energy, and communication infrastructure  
construction in Central and South America is relatively lagging behind. Insufficient  
investment in infrastructure seriously hinders the optimal allocation of resources and  
restricts the development of the regional economy. Re-industrialization and energy  
demand growth will further increase the pressure on emission reduction. Although  
Central and South America is currently not a major GHG emission zone, with the socio-  
economic development, population growth and re-industrialization, the fossil fuel  
energy demand will keep growing. If the present fossil fuel dominated energy structure  
continues, GHG emissions will continue to increase and Central and South America  
may face more pressure on emission reduction.  
2.2 Development Ideas  
The key to achieving sustainable development in Central and South America  
is to speed up the development of clean energy, enhance energy infrastructure  
connectivity, and build Central and South American Energy Interconnection. As  
a result, a platform for large-scale development, wide-ranging transmission and  
efficient utilization of clean energy can be created to ensure safe, adequate,  
economical and efficient energy supply and accelerate green and low-carbon  
development. Central and South American Energy Interconnection is an  
important part of GEI. The general ideas include accelerating the development of  
abundant hydro, wind and solar energy resources in the region, thus ensure sustainable  
energy supply and achieve energy security. The “electricity replacement” and the  
progression of electrification will improve the quality and efficiency of energy use and  
increase social productivity. Regional synergy and complementarity through networked  
6
     
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
and interconnected development will enhance economic development and guarantee  
the sustainable development in Central and South America.  
2.3 Development Priorities  
Develop clean energy in a coordinated and efficient way to ensure diversified,  
clean, reliable and economical supply of energy and power in Central and South  
America. Central and South American Energy Interconnection will give full play to the  
natural endowment and spatial distribution of clean energy resources in the region, and  
will develop and utilize clean energy in a coordinated and efficient way by adopting  
both large-scale centralized and small-scale distributed development.  
Strengthen the cross-border, inter-regional and inter-continental power grid  
interconnection to build a platform to optimize the allocation of clean energy in a  
wide area. Taking into account the differences in energy and resource endowments,  
social development levels, political and economic environment of countries in Central  
and South America and strengthening energy and power interconnection will contribute  
to the transformation of energy allocation from local balance to cross-border, inter-  
regional and inter-continental distribution.  
Accelerate electricity replacement and electrification on the consumption side  
to enhance energy efficiency. Electricity, a clean, efficient, convenient, widely used  
secondary energy, is an indispensable means of production and very much active in  
modern society. Increasing the electrification level of various industries and sectors in  
Central and South America and replacing end-use fossil fuels such as coal and oil with  
electricity will significantly enhance energy utilization efficiency.  
Promote the co-development model of “Electricity, Mining, Metallurgy,  
Manufacturing and Trade” (“Co-development Model”), to expand the growth space  
for manufacturing and emerging industries. Large-scale development of clean  
energy can provide sufficient power for mines, metallurgical bases and industrial parks  
in a clean and green way. The industrial chain featuring coordinated development of  
electricity, mining, metallurgy, manufacturing and trade will be built to create a virtuous  
cycle of “investment-development-production-export-reinvestment”. Meanwhile,  
abundant clean and green electricity will power the development of manufacturing and  
emerging industries, meeting strong power demand for the Internet, big data, cloud  
computing, intelligent manufacturing, the Internet of things and other industries, and  
accumulate new momentum for economic development in the information age.  
7
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
3 Energy and Power Development Trends  
3.1 Energy Demand  
Primary energy demand will maintain a relatively rapid growth, with a  
growth rate slightly higher than the global average. The primary energy demand of  
Central and South America will increase to 1.49 billion tce in 2035 and 1.71 billion tce  
in 2050, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7% and 0.9% respectively. The energy  
demand per capita will increase steadily, up 29% from 2.1 tce in 2016 to 2.8 tce in  
2050.  
Figure 3-1 Primary Energy Demand by Type in Central and South America  
Coal and oil demand will successively reach a peak, bioenergy demand will  
grow continuously, and the energy structure will become cleaner. Between 2025  
and 2030, coal and oil demand will peak at 50 million and 430 million tce, respectively.  
From 2016 to 2050, the demand for natural gas will remain at around 210 million tce,  
and bioenergy demand will steadily increase from 190 to 260 million tce, with an  
average annual growth rate of 1%. Clean energy in this region will increase by 1.6 times,  
reaching 1.18 billion tce, and its share in primary energy will increase from 44% in  
2016 to 72% 1 in 2050. By around 2030, clean energy will replace fossil fuel,  
dominating primary energy in Central and South America.  
The total final energy consumption in Central and South America will  
maintain growth, first with a relatively high speed and then slow down. The share  
of electricity in final energy will continuously increase, and electricity will have the  
highest share by 2035. The total final energy consumption in Central and South  
America will increase from 0.70 billion tce in 2016 to 0.93 million tce in 2035, with an  
1
When calculating the share of clean energy in total primary energy, the fossil fuel that is used for non-energy use  
purposes will not be counted. Same for the following.  
8
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
average annual growth rate of 1.5%. The growth rate will slow down to 0.3% from 2036  
to 2050 and the energy consumption will reach 0.97 billion tce in 2050. From 2016 to  
2050, the share of electricity-producing energy in primary energy is expected to  
increase from 38% to 65%, and the share of electricity in final energy consumption is  
expected to increase from 20% to 50%.1  
Figure 3-2 Final Energy Consumption by Type and Share of Electricity in Central and  
South America  
3.2 Power Demand  
Development and energy use improvement of traditional and emerging  
industries, transport electrification, high-quality urbanization and residential  
consumption upgrade will drive the rapid growth of power demand in Central and  
South America. The total power demand will increase from 1.1 PWh in 2016 to 2.6  
PWh in 2035, and 3.8 PWh in 2050, and the average annual growth rates during the  
periods of 2016–2035 and 2036–2050 will be approximately 4.9% and 2.5%  
respectively. The maximum load will be increased from 200 GW in 2016 to 440 GW  
and 630 GW by 2035 and 2050 respectively. The annual power consumption per capita  
in 2035 and 2050 will increase to 4518 kWh and 6157 kWh respectively.  
Figure 3-3 Power Demand Forecast in Central and South America  
1
When calculating the share of electricity in total final energy consumption, the fossil fuels that are used for non-  
energy use purposes is not counted. Same for the following.  
9
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
3.3 Power Supply  
In the future, the general trend of power supply development in Central and  
South America will focus on the diversity and complementarity of generation,  
realizing the coordinated development of hydro, wind and solar power, and  
ensuring economical and reliable power supply in clean and green ways.  
Wind and solar power with fast-dropping costs are the preferred option for  
the diversification of generation in Central and South America. Owing to abundant  
hydro energy resources, except for the Caribbean, Central and South America has  
established a generation mix with a high proportion of hydropower. Currently, the  
proportion of hydropower in total power generation is over 50%. Due to the geographic  
location and resource endowment, the Caribbean currently has a relatively  
homogeneous generation mix, and 90% of the power supply relies on thermal power  
generation. In order to ensure a reliable power supply, Central and South America  
urgently needs to diversify its generation mix. With fast-dropping costs of wind and  
solar power generation, the coordinated development of hydro, wind and solar power  
will become the preferred option if Central and South America seeks a diversified  
generation mix and reliable and economical power supply.  
A large number of hydropower plants with flexible regulation capability in  
Central and South America can support the large-scale development and  
integration of intermittent wind and solar power. A large number of hydropower  
stations in Central and South America have daily regulation capabilities, and many have  
seasonal, annual and even multi-year regulation capability, which can help mitigate  
short-term fluctuations and long-term changes in the outputs of wind power and solar  
power. Mutually complementary hydropower and wind and solar power could strike a  
reasonable structural balance to support further improvement of the share of clean  
energy in the generation mix of Central and South America.  
With regard to natural characteristics, clean energy sources, such as hydro,  
wind and solar energy, feature high temporal and spatial complementarity. With  
the large-scale interconnection of power grids, coordinated development and  
utilization can both mitigate seasonal output changes and reduce seasonal installed  
capacity.  
Inter-basin hydro-energy is complementary. Discharges from the river basins  
in Central and South America vary significantly with seasons, and the ratio of wet to  
10  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
dry seasons is practically 5:1 and 4:1. For instance, there are obvious differences  
between wet and dry season characteristics among rivers in central and southern  
Argentina, the Uruguay River and tributaries on the right bank of the Amazon, San  
Francisco Rivers and the main stream of the Parana River. Considering resource  
characteristics and volume, by utilizing inter-basin complementary features, the overall  
ratio of wet to dry seasons could be reduced to 5:2.  
Figure 3-4 Annual Variation of Average Discharge of Main Rivers in South America  
Hydro, wind and solar energy are complementary. Take the resource  
characteristics of Brazil's hydro, Argentina's wind and Chile's solar energy as an  
example: most of Brazil’s hydro-energy resources peak from December to May and  
trough from June to November; Argentina's wind energy resources peak from April to  
October and trough from November to March; Chile's solar energy resources peak from  
October to March and trough from May to September; their monthly variations are  
rather obviously complementary, the overall peak to trough ratio can be reduced to 10:7  
from 10:2 for hydro-energy alone.  
Figure 3-5 Annual Variation of Brazil's Hydro, Argentine Wind and Chile's Solar  
Energy  
In the future, the generation structure in Central and South America will  
gradually shift from “ hydro and thermal dominated ” to “ coordinated  
development of hydro, wind and solar power”, greatly improving total and per  
capita installed capacity. In 2035, the total installed capacity will be about 830 GW.  
11  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
The proportion of clean energy installation will increase from 58% in 2016 to 77%. In  
2050, the total installed capacity will be 1.3 TW, and the proportion of clean energy  
installation will continuously increase to 84%. The proportion of non-hydro renewable  
energy installation will be 56%, and it will become the main power source; the  
exploitation rate of hydropower resources will come to 56%, but the proportion of  
hydropower installation will decrease to 27%; the proportion of thermal power  
installation will decrease to 16%; the installations of hydropower, wind and solar are  
nearly the same in 2050. In 2035, the generation of clean energy sources will be about  
2.2 PWh, and the share of that in the total generation will rise to 79% from 66% in 2016.  
In 2050, the generation of clean energy sources will be about 3.3 PWh, and the share  
of it will rise to 84%.  
Figure 3-6 Outlook for Installed Capacity in Central and South America  
12  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
4 Development Layout of Clean Energy  
Resources  
4.1 Distribution of Clean Energy Resources  
Hydro energy. Central and South America has the second largest hydro energy  
potential in the world, over 7.8 PWh/year, mainly concentrates in the Amazon River  
and the Rio de la Plata-Parana River basins. The technical potential is over 620 GW,  
and more than 70% is undeveloped.  
Figure 4-1 Major Rivers and Hydro Energy Potentials in Central and South America  
Wind energy. Central and South America has abundant wind energy resources,  
with a theoretical potential of about 220 PWh/year, most of which concentrates in the  
Southern Cone of South America, northeastern Brazil, and the northern coast of  
Colombia and Venezuela.  
13  
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 4-2 Illustration of Annual Average Wind Speed Distribution in Central and South  
America  
Solar energy. Solar resources in Central and South America are abundant, and  
the theoretical potential exceeds 12000 PWh/year. The solar resources in Central and  
South America mainly concentrate in the Atacama Desert and northeastern Brazil.  
Figure 4-3 Illustration of Distribution of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Central and  
South America  
14  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
4.2 Layout of Clean Energy Bases  
Hydropower development. In the future, Central and South America will mainly  
focus on the development of 3 hydropower bases, i.e. East and West Amazon Bases and  
the Orinoco Base, distributed in Brazil, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela.  
Table 4-1 Hydropower Bases Development Scheme  
Unit: GW  
Existing  
installed  
capacity  
Installed  
capacity by capacity by  
Installed  
Bases  
Country  
Brazil  
Rivers covered  
2035  
64  
2050  
1. Tocantins River  
2. The Amazon River's  
tributaries: Xingu River,  
Madeira River, Tapajos  
River  
East Amazon Base  
36  
64  
The Amazon River's  
tributaries: Marañón River,  
Ucayali River, and Madeira  
River  
Bolivia  
Peru  
0.5  
10  
20  
17  
33  
West Amazon  
Base  
1.50  
Orinoco Base  
Total  
Venezuela  
15  
53  
20  
25  
Orinoco River  
114  
139  
Wind power development. The wind power development of Central and South  
America will firstly place emphasis on southern Argentina and northeast Brazil, and  
secondly on Uruguay and the coast of northern Colombia. Four major wind power bases  
located on the coast of Colombia, northeastern Brazil, southern Argentina, and  
Paraguay and Uruguay respectively, will be built. Nine wind power bases will be  
prioritized with an installed capacity of 220 GW by 2050.  
Table 4-2 Wind Power Bases Development Scheme  
Unit: GW  
Technical  
potential  
Installed capacity  
by 2035  
Installed capacity  
by 2035  
Bases  
Location  
Wind power bases  
in the coastal area of  
Colombia  
①
Valledupar  
24  
10  
20  
Wind power bases  
in northeastern  
Brazil  
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
⑧
⑨
Paraiba  
Paraiba  
69  
66  
24  
36  
90  
90  
90  
81  
570  
20  
20  
3
40  
40  
24  
8
Wind power bases in  
Paraguay and  
Uruguay  
Curuguaty  
Tacuarembó  
Negro River  
Chubut  
1
15  
15  
10  
0
25  
25  
25  
10  
217  
Wind power bases  
in southern  
Santa Cruz  
Santa Cruz  
Argentina  
Total  
94  
15  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Solar power development. The solar power development of Central and South  
America will firstly focus on theAtacama Desert within the territory of Chile, Argentina  
and Peru, and secondly on northeast Brazil and some areas of Venezuela. The overall  
layout is comprised of 3 major solar power bases. Priority can be given to the  
development of 14 solar power bases, with an installed capacity of 200 GW by 2050.  
Table 4-3 Solar Power Bases Development scheme  
Unit: GW  
Installed capacity by Installed capacity by  
Bases  
Country  
Technical potential  
2035  
2050  
①
Venezuela  
230  
5
10  
Solar energy bases in  
Orinoco plain  
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
⑧
⑨
⑩
⑪
⑫
⑬
⑭
Venezuela  
Brazil  
200  
300  
300  
300  
270  
80  
5
10  
10  
10  
4
10  
20  
20  
20  
30  
10  
7
Solar energy bases in  
northeastern Brazil  
Brazil  
Brazil  
Peru  
Bolivia  
Argentina  
Argentina  
Argentina  
Chile  
2
120  
150  
150  
250  
300  
300  
150  
3100  
1
1
8
Solar energy bases in  
Atacama Desert  
1
8
6
15  
15  
20  
10  
203  
Chile  
6
Chile  
6
Chile  
6
Total  
73  
16  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
5. Power Grid Interconnection  
5.1 Power Flow  
Taking the development of power generation, the distribution of power demand  
and the layout of clean energy development into account, the roles of the five regions  
of Central and South America could be proposed as follows: Eastern South America  
is home to major load centers in Central and South America. Apart from local  
hydropower bases along the Amazon River, wind and solar power bases in northeastern  
Brazil, it imports a large amount of clean energy from Southern South America and  
Western South America. Southern South America massively develops hydro, wind  
and solar power to satisfy power demand of load centers in northeastern Argentina and  
north-central Chile, while serving as a major clean energy base in Central and South  
America. Western South America could satisfy local power demand in the short term  
by developing hydro, wind and solar power. In the long term, it could leverage  
advantages of hydropower to develop into a clean energy base and a power transfer hub  
to help South and North America achieve seasonal mutual support. Central America  
receives power from Western South America and North America to make up for power  
supply shortage, and also serves as the corridor connecting South and North America.  
The Caribbean islands focus on meeting power demand mainly by local generation,  
while sharing clean energy including wind, solar and geothermal energy through the  
inter-island grid interconnection.  
The power flow pattern of Central and South America will be generally  
characterized by “hydropower transmission from North to South, wind power  
transmission from South to North, solar power transmission from West to East and inter-  
continental mutual power support between South and North America”. By 2035, the  
total scale of inter-regional and cross-border power flow will exceed 36 GW. The scale  
of inter-regional and cross-border power flow will rise to 21 GW and 15 GW  
respectively. By 2050, the total scale of inter-continental, inter-regional and cross-  
border power flow will exceed 91 GW. The scale of inter-continental, inter-regional and  
cross-border power flow will reach 10 GW, 63 GW and 18 GW respectively.  
17  
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-1 Illustration of Power Flow in Central and South America by 2050  
5.2 Power Grid Pattern  
In the future, the priorities of grid development in Central and SouthAmerica  
will be to vigorously develop inter-continental, inter-regional and cross-border grid  
interconnection, support steady hydropower development, proactively develop non-  
hydro clean energy, achieve large-scale development and mutual support of clean  
energy and satisfy power demand to enable sustainable economic and social  
development. Except for the Caribbean, an overall pattern featuring three  
synchronous power grids in Eastern and Western South America, Southern South  
America, and Central America will take shape. The Caribbean will realize AC or  
DC grid interconnection across different islands.  
18  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-2 Illustration of Overall Grid Interconnection Pattern in Central and South  
America1  
By 2035, Central and South American Energy Interconnection will have  
essentially taken shape; the Eastern South America grid and Western South  
America grid will be interconnected synchronously; asynchronous grid  
interconnection will be achieved between the Southern South America grid and  
the Eastern and Western South America grid as well as between the Western South  
America grid and the Central America grid; national and regional grids will  
experience ongoing improvement.  
Synchronous interconnection between the Eastern South America grid and the  
Western South America grid will give rise to 1000/500 kV AC main grids in eight  
countries, namely Brazil, Guyana, Surinam, French Guiana, Venezuela, Colombia,  
Ecuador and Peru. Among them, Brazil will establish a 1000 kV UHV AC main grid,  
and the rest of the group will establish 500 kV AC main grids (400 kV for Venezuela),  
enabling cross-border and inter-regional grid interconnection through 500 kV AC  
1
All sites of stations and paths of transmission lines from figures in this report are schematic displays which do  
not strictly represent specific geographical locations.  
19  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
transmission channels. Brazil will establish a 1000 kV AC looped network in the shape  
of an “8” in its southeastern load center, one double-circuit 1000 kV AC transmission  
channel respectively in the south and the north, and five ±800 kV UHV DC transmission  
channels to enable outbound transmission of hydropower from the Amazon River, wind  
power and solar power from the northeast, and support the massive feed-in of clean  
electricity for the load centers. The Southern South America grid will give rise to  
1000/500 kV AC main grids in five countries, namely Chile, Argentina, Paraguay,  
Uruguay and Bolivia. Specifically, Argentina will form a flipped “F”-shaped 1000 kV  
AC network to pool and deliver the power of southern wind power bases; Chile will  
establish one ±800 kV DC transmission channel to deliver solar power from the north  
to the capital area of Santiago; the rest of the group will establish 500 kV main grids  
and achieve cross-border grid interconnection through 500 kV AC transmission  
channels. As for the Central America grid, nations in the region will extend and  
improve 230 kV main power transmission grids and strengthen intra-regional grid  
interconnection. As for the Caribbean grids, nations and areas will extend and  
improve their transmission grids and some islands in the southern, northern and central  
part of the region will achieve grid interconnection. Asynchronous interconnection  
between the Eastern and Western South America grid and the Southern South  
America grid will be strengthened. Hydropower from northern Bolivia and wind  
power from southern Argentina will be sent to Brazil through two ±800 kV UHV DC  
transmission channels; grid interconnection will be achieved between Peru and Bolivia,  
Peru and Chile, Brazil and Argentina, and Brazil and Uruguay through ±500 kV back-  
to-back DC transmission channels. The Western SouthAmerica grid and the Central  
America grid will become interconnected through a Colombia—Panama ±500 kV DC  
transmission channel. The Western South America grid and the Caribbean grid will  
become interconnected through  
interconnection project.  
a
Venezuela—Trinidad and Tobago grid  
By 2050, Central and South American Energy Interconnection will generally  
keep the pattern of three major synchronous power grids and accomplish inter-  
continental grid interconnection with North America.  
The Eastern and Western South America synchronous power grid will further  
strengthen 1000/500 kV AC main grids. Brazil will form a 1000 kV network featuring  
“one horizontal and two vertical” in the east, “three-adjoining-squares” in the southeast  
and a ladder-shape in the south; Peru will build on the large hydropower development  
20  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
in the east to form a C-shaped chain-type 1000 kV UHV AC network; 500 kVAC grids  
in all nations will be improved on the basis of the 2035 grid structure, and cross-border  
grid interconnection will be boosted in some parts. For the Southern South America  
grid, 1000/500 kV AC main grids will be further boosted. Argentina will form an “8”-  
shaped 1000 kV AC looped network structure; 500 kV AC grids in all nations will be  
improved on the basis of the 2035 grid structure. For the Central America grid,  
nations will strengthen their 230 kV grids and establish cross-border double-circuit 400  
kV interconnection transmission channels. For the Caribbean grids, nations and areas  
will upgrade their main transmission grids and grid interconnection will be achieved in  
most parts of the region. Between the Eastern and Western South America grid and  
the Southern South America grid, three ±800 kV UHV DC transmission channels  
from Argentina to Brazil and one Peru—Bolivia—Brazil ±800 kV UHV DC  
transmission channel will be established to realize inter-regional mutual  
complementation of hydro, wind and solar power. Inter-continentally, Central and  
South America will achieve DC interconnection with North America. A ±800 kV  
UHV DC Peru-Mexico project will be built to form an interconnection channel between  
South and North America and expand the scope of clean power mutual support and  
complementation. In the meantime, the Bahamas grid in the Caribbean will become  
interconnected with the grid in Florida, U.S.  
5.3 Regional Grid Interconnection  
Eastern South America will build main grids covering wind and solar power  
bases in the northeast, hydropower bases along the Amazon River and load centers in  
the southeast. It will, in a timely manner, bring in UHV AC technology to support the  
pooling, transmission and wide-area optimal allocation of power from clean energy  
bases, provide robust support to multi-infeed DC systems, make grid integration,  
transmission and accommodation of clean energy more flexible, achieve inter-regional  
mutual support and complementation among hydro, wind and solar power and satisfy  
power demand during both wet and dry seasons. Guyana, Surinam and French Guiana  
will boost their grid upgrading and achieve cross-border grid interconnection within the  
region to enhance intra-regional power exchange. Overall, Eastern South America will  
present a power flow pattern featuring “power transmission from North to South”.  
Clean energy bases in northern Brazil will send power to load centers in the southeast  
of the nation. Inter-regionally, it receives hydropower from Western South America,  
21  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
and receives wind and solar power from Southern South America. Intra-regionally, all  
countries achieve 500 kV cross-border grid interconnection. Eastern Brazil will  
establish a UHVAC grid featuring “one horizontal and two vertical” covering wind and  
solar power bases in the northeast all the way to the southeastern load centers, forming  
a latticed UHV main grid; the 500 kV AC grid in the east will be further strengthened  
and the 500 kVAC grid in the north will be extended westward, coupled with outbound  
hydropower transmission from the Amazon River; in the north, the Belo Monte and  
other hydropower stations along the Amazon River will send power to load centers in  
the southeast through five ±800 kV UHV DC transmission channels. Guyana, Surinam  
and French Guiana will build 500 kVAC interconnection channel to form a looped grid  
with the 500 kV grid in northern Brazil through the Saint Georges, French Guiana—  
Ferreira Gomes, Brazil, and Guyana—Boa Vista, Brazil 500 kV AC transmission lines.  
Inter-regionally, a double-circuit 500 kV AC transmission channel, namely Boa Vista,  
Brazil—Santa Elena de Uairen, Venezuela will be established to achieve synchronous  
interconnection between the Eastern South America and Western South America grids;  
a three-terminal ±800 kV DC transmission line Yanayaku, Peru—Riberalta, Bolivia—  
Araraquara, Brazil, and a ±800 kV DC transmission line Trinidad, Bolivia—Campinas,  
Brazil will be established to import hydropower from Peru and Bolivia; four ±800 kV  
DC transmission channels namely Rufino, Argentina—Santa Cruz de Sul, Brazil,  
Maquinchao, Argentina—Porto Alegre, Brazil, Neuquen, Argentina—Biguaçu, Brazil  
and Salta, Argentina—Lagos, Brazil will be built to receive wind power from southern  
Argentina and solar power from northwestern Argentina and northern Chile; the back-  
to-back DC interconnection between Brazil and Uruguay will be expanded to scale up  
mutual power support with Southern South America.  
22  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-3 Illustration of Grid Interconnection in Eastern South America by 2050  
Southern South America will establish a main grid centered on Argentina and  
interconnected with other countries, forming a large platform for the optimal allocation  
of clean energy by receiving surplus hydropower from Western South America and  
sending hydro, wind and solar power to Eastern South America, which could help  
satisfy the power demand of local and Eastern South America load centers. For the  
clean energy delivery and power supply, Argentina will reinforce and upgrade its AC  
main grids, and Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay will achieve cross-border grid  
interconnection through AC transmission channels. Argentina and Bolivia will deliver  
power to the load centers in Brazil in Eastern SouthAmerica through inter-regional power  
transmission channels. Overall, the power flow pattern of this region will feature “solar  
power transmission from West to East and wind power transmission from South to North”.  
Large wind power bases in southern Argentina will deliver power to load centers in  
southern Brazil; power from solar energy bases in northern Chile will be mixed with  
Argentine wind power and hydropower and then sent to load centers in southern Brazil;  
hydropower bases in Bolivia will send power to load centers in southeastern Brazil.  
Intra-regionally, 1000/500 kV AC main grids incorporating Bolivia, Chile, Argentina,  
Paraguay and Uruguay will be established. Argentina will establish an “8”-shaped  
looped network structure in the east for the power pooling and delivery of the southern  
wind power bases, and reinforce 500 kV AC main grids. Chile will strengthen north-  
23  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
south 500 kV AC power transmission channels, and upgrade southern transmission  
channels into triple-circuit lines; the second transmission channel from Lagunas to  
Cardones will be built to institute a looped network structure in the central north; the  
500 kV AC grid interconnection with Argentina will be reinforced by forging three  
transmission channels in northern, central and south-central parts of the nation  
respectively; a ±800 kV DC power transmission line will be established to deliver solar  
power from the north to its capital Santiago. Bolivia will institute a double-circuit 500  
kV looped network structure in the shape of an “8”. Uruguay will establish the second  
500 kV transmission channel of San Javier—San Carlos to institute a double-circuit  
500 kVAC looped grid. Paraguay will establish the second power transmission channel  
of Itaipu—North Villa Hayes to institute a 500 kV double-circuit looped grid, and  
establish a new transmission channel of Itaipu—Ayolas. Inter-regionally, a ±800 kV  
UHV DC transmission channel Trinidad, Bolivia—Campinas, Brazil, and a three-  
terminal ±800 DC power transmission line Yanayaku, Peru—Riberalta, Bolivia—  
Araraquara, Brazil will be established to pool the hydropower from Peru and Bolivia  
together and send it to Brazil. Four ±800 kV DC transmission channels namely Rufino,  
Argentina—Santa Cruz de Sul, Brazil, Maquinchao, Argentina—Porto Alegre, Brazil,  
Neuquen, Argentina—Biguaçu, Brazil and Salta, Argentina—Lagos, Brazil will be set  
up to deliver wind and solar power from Argentina and Chile to Brazil. Bolivia, Peru  
and Chile will form ±500 kV back-to-back DC grid interconnection, and Uruguay—  
Brazil back-to-back DC grid interconnection will be expanded.  
24  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-4 Illustration of Grid Interconnection in Southern South America by 2050  
Western South America will focus on building a strong regional grid  
interconnection with larger capacity and higher voltage levels to enable large-scale  
inter-continental grid interconnection, expand grid coverage and help population in  
remote areas gain access to electricity. Countries within the region will upgrade their  
domestic AC main grids and voltage levels of cross-border interconnections to enable  
more inter-regional exchange capacity. From an inter-regional perspective, Peru will  
send its clean energy mix, including hydro and solar power to load centers in Eastern  
South America. Central and South America and North America have remarkably  
different climate conditions along with great differences in time zones, seasonal  
variations and generation structures. If they are interconnected through Western South  
America, they will be able to realize efficient joint operation of power generation from  
various clean energy sources including hydro, wind and solar energy. Overall, the power  
flow pattern of this region will feature “power transmission from South to North, and  
seasonal mutual support with North America”. From an inter-regional perspective, large  
hydropower bases in Peru will mainly deliver electricity to Brazil’s load centers in  
Eastern South America; from an inter-continental perspective, it may achieve seasonal  
25  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
mutual support with solar power in North America. Intra-regionally, Venezuela will  
extend its 400 kV AC grids to the south and build the second east-west transmission  
channel of Bolivar—Barquisimeto to form a horizontal ladder-shaped double-circuit  
grid structure. Colombia will establish 500 kV double-circuit AC looped grids in central  
and northern parts of the nation, which extend both to the northernmost of the continent  
in the northeast and to the southwest so as to interconnect with Ecuador; a new 500 kV  
AC outbound transmission channel will be established for northern wind power bases.  
Ecuador will build “8”-shaped double-circuit 500 kV AC grids and interconnect with  
Colombia in the north and Peru in the south. Peru will build on central large hydropower  
developments to form a “C”-shaped chain-type 1000 kV UHV AC main grid running  
from Yurimaguas to Sampaya; the second north-south 500 kV transmission channel of  
Celendin—Marcona will be established to form a vertical ladder-shaped structure;  
upgrade vertical 500 kV AC power transmission channels into double-circuit or triple-  
circuit. Venezuela and Colombia will be interconnected through a double-circuit 500  
kVAC transmission line of Barquisimeto—Cuestecitas. Ecuador will interconnect with  
Colombia through a double-circuit 500 kV AC transmission line of Turkan—  
Jamondino, and interconnect with Peru through a triple-circuit 500 kVAC transmission  
line of Machala—Pifo. Inter-regionally, ±500 kV back-to-back interconnections  
between Peru and Bolivia, and between Peru and Chile will be set up to realize mutual  
power support between Western and Southern South America. A double-circuit 500 kV  
AC transmission line of Santa Elena de Uairen, Venezuela—Boa Vista, Brazil will be  
established to realize grid interconnection between Western and Eastern SouthAmerica,  
and a three-terminal ±800 kV DC transmission line of Yanayaku, Peru—Riberalta,  
Bolivia—Araraquara, Brazil will be instituted to pool hydropower from Peru and  
Bolivia together and deliver it to load centers in Brazil. A ±500 kV DC transmission  
channel between Panama and Colombia will be built to deliver hydropower from  
Western South America to Central America. Inter-continentally, a ±800 kV DC  
transmission channel of Peru−Mexico will be established to achieve seasonal mutual  
power support between Central and South America and North America.  
26  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-5 Illustration of Grid Interconnection in Western South America by 2050  
Central America will reinforce domestic main grids, enhance regional grid  
structure, and extend the distribution network to provide electricity to people with no  
access to electricity. In the meantime, cross-border grid interconnection within the  
region will be strengthened. Transition to a clean and diversified energy mix will press  
ahead and grid interconnection benefits, such as peak shifting, resource  
complementation and reserve sharing, will be achieved. Hydro energy will be further  
developed and the development of solar and wind energy speeded up. In this way, Costa  
Rica and other countries with abundant clean energy could not only satisfy local  
demand with green and clean electricity but also benefit other countries within the  
region through grid interconnection channels, which helps reduce their dependency on  
importing fossil energy. Grid interconnection with neighboring areas will be reinforced  
to enable the sound use of energy on a larger scale, including strengthening AC  
interconnection with Mexico and building DC interconnection between Panama and  
Colombia. Overall, the power flow pattern of Central America will feature “importing  
power at both ends and power transmission from North to South”. Panama and another  
two countries in the south are primary load centers, and solar power from Mexico in  
North America and hydropower from Western South America will be imported to meet  
the power demand of Central American countries. Intra-regionally, 400 kV AC grids  
will be built in load centers and areas with intensive clean energy integration, and 230  
kV grids will be consolidated. SIEPAC lines will be upgraded to double-circuit.  
Double-circuit 400 kV looped grids will be established in Guatemala, El Salvador and  
27  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Honduras. 400 kV transmission lines will be built to achieve interconnection in  
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, so as to fully leverage the clean energy  
of the region. Inter-regionally, a ±500 kV DC transmission project of Panama—  
Colombia will be built in order to achieve interconnection with Western South America.  
400 kV power transmission lines will be further extended to the north to interconnect  
with the grids in Mexico, thus giving rise to an interconnected 400 kV grid that runs  
across Central America and reaches North America, expanding electricity trading  
between the continents and capitalizing on the benefits of grid interconnection.  
Figure 5-6 Illustration of Grid Interconnection in Central America by 2050  
The Caribbean will strengthen domestic power transmission main grids, enhance  
capacity for clean energy integration and provide electricity access to populations living  
without electricity. All islands will focus primarily on local power balance, while  
strengthening inter-island interconnection in order to enhance disaster preparedness and  
realize clean energy sharing. Intra-regionally, countries and areas across the Caribbean  
will improve local transmission grids. Dominican Republic, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and  
Trinidad and Tobago will upgrade their respective domestic grids to 500/345 kV. Most  
countries and areas in the Caribbean will realize grid interconnection, forming the  
Bahamas—Cuba—Haiti—Dominican Republic—Puerto Rico—eastern island chain—  
Trinidad and Tobago interconnection, and the Haiti—Jamaica interconnection. Inter-  
regionally, the Western South America grid will become interconnected with the  
Caribbean grid through the Venezuela—Trinidad and Tobago link. Inter-  
continentally，the region will achieve grid interconnection with North America  
through the Bahamas—Florida cross-sea interconnection project.  
28  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 5-7 Illustration of Grid Interconnection in the Caribbean by 2050  
5.4 Key Interconnection Projects  
By 2050, one ±800 kV DC inter-continental project and six ±800 kV and one ±500  
kV DC inter-regional projects will be established, with a total transmission capacity of  
59 GW.  
Table 5-1 List of Inter-Continental and Inter-Regional Key Projects  
Route  
length  
(km)  
Voltage Capacity  
Total investment Transm. price (US  
No.  
Project name  
(kV)  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±800  
±500  
(GW)  
(billion USD)  
cents/kWh)  
Trujillo, Peru—Mexico City,  
Mexico DC  
Trinidad, Bolivia—Campinas,  
Brazil DC  
Rufino, Argentina—Santa Cruz de  
Sul, Brazil DC  
Salta, Argentina—Lagos, Brazil  
DC  
Maquinchao, Argentina—Porto  
Alegre, Brazil DC  
Neuquen, Argentina—Biguacu,  
Brazil DC  
Yanayaku, Peru—Riberalta,  
Bolivia—Araraquara, Brazil DC  
El Porvenir, Colombia—Panama,  
Panama City DC  
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
3
5200  
2100  
1600  
1600  
2200  
2600  
3000  
400  
11.5  
3.9  
3.5  
3.5  
4.0  
4.4  
5.7  
0.9  
3.2  
①
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
⑧
1.3  
1.1  
1.1  
1.3  
1.5  
2.1  
0.6  
Intra-regionally, AC grid interconnection project of the “Arco Norte” four  
countries, and the 1000 kV UHVAC projects of Brazil, Argentina and Peru will be built.  
The estimated route length of the new lines totals 15300 km.  
29  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Table 5-2 List of Intra-Regional Key Projects  
Route  
length  
(km)  
Voltage  
(kV)  
Capacity  
(GW)  
Total investment (billion  
USD)  
No.  
Project name  
100  
②
1000 kV UHV AC Projects in Brazil  
1000 kV UHV AC Projects in Argentina  
1000 kV UHV AC Projects in Peru  
1000  
1000  
1000  
500  
20  
20  
10  
2
9290  
3190  
1430  
1400  
20.5  
7.1  
3.6  
1.4  
③
The Arco Norte countries AC  
interconnection Project  
④
5.5 Investment Estimation  
By 2050, a total of 2.35 trillion USD will go into Central and South American  
Energy Interconnection. Specifically, 1.26 trillion USD will be invested in generation,  
taking up 54%, and 1.09 trillion USD will be invested in grids, taking up 46%.  
Figure 5-8 Investment Scale and Structure of Central and South American Energy  
Interconnection  
From 2019 to 2035, the investment in Central and South American Energy  
Interconnection will be about 1.37 trillion USD. Investment in generation will be 760.8  
billion USD, constituting 56%. Distributed generation will cost 38.0 billion USD,  
coming to 5% of generation investment. Grid investment will be about 608.3 billion  
USD, making up 44%. Investment in 400 kV and above voltage level grids will be about  
121.6 billion USD, and for grids below 400 kV it will be about 486.7 billion USD.  
From 2036 to 2050, the investment in Central and South American Energy  
Interconnection will be about 0.98 trillion USD. Investment in generation will be 498.1  
billion USD, constituting 51%. Distributed generation will cost 50 billion USD,  
constituting 10% of generation investment. Grid investment will be about 478.7 billion  
USD, coming to 49%. Investment for 400 kV and above voltage level grids will be  
about 115.9 billion USD, and for grids below 400 kV it will be about 362.8 billion USD.  
30  
 
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
6 Comprehensive Benefits  
6.1 Economic Benefits  
Meeting growing energy demand and driving rapid economic growth. By  
2050, approximately 2.35 trillion USD will be invested in Central and South American  
Energy Interconnection, contributing up to 2.7% of GDP growth per year. Promoting  
large-scale development of clean energy, and turning resource advantage into  
economic advantage at a faster pace. By fully developing the vast hydro-energy  
resources of the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers, rich wind energy resources along the  
Atlantic and Pacific coasts, and high-quality solar energy resources in the Atacama  
Desert, building Central and South American Energy Interconnection will further take  
advantage of energy resource endowment of countries in the region. Obtaining  
benefits of interconnection and achieving efficient utilization of clean energy.  
Building Central and South American Energy Interconnection will take full advantage  
of the temporal and spatial complementarity hydro, wind and solar energy and the  
differences in load characteristics between different areas, and ensure an adequate,  
economical and reliable supply of clean energy. Unlocking dividend of technological  
innovation, and stimulating the development of emerging technology industries.  
Energy and power interconnection will fully drive the development of strategic  
emerging industries and closely align with Central and South American re-  
industrialization, thus capturing integrated and aggregated breakthroughs in the  
development and utilization of new energy, new materials, communications, AI and  
many other sectors of emerging technologies. Promoting the Co-development Model,  
and facilitating manufacturing upgrading. It is estimated that the manufacturing  
added value of the region will rise to 2.5 trillion USD by 2050, accounting for up to 20%  
of GDP.  
6.2 Social Benefits  
Boosting employment. Building Central and South American Energy  
Interconnection plays an important role in driving the construction of energy and power  
infrastructure and the development of upstream and downstream industries, and more  
than 5 million new jobs will be cumulatively created in Central and South America by  
2050. Reducing energy supply costs. It is predicted that in 2050, the average cost of  
power generation in Central and South America will be reduced by about 50%  
31  
     
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
compared with the current level, and the benefits will be very significant. Reducing  
poverty. It will push forward the goal of “Sustainable Energy for All” launched by the  
UN, and fundamentally narrow the wealth gap between urban and rural areas and also  
between different areas.  
6.3 Environmental Benefits  
Reducing GHG emissions and climate-related disasters. Central and South  
American Energy Interconnection can help to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy  
system to about 1.1 Gt CO2/year by 2035, 45% less than that in the Business-as-Usual  
(BAU) scenario1, and further reduce to about 700 million tonnes of CO2 per year in  
2050, which is 72% lower than that in the BAU scenario. Building Central and South  
American Energy Interconnection will fundamentally reduce GHG emissions,  
effectively lowering the probability of extreme weather and disasters, whilst reducing  
climate risks in coastal areas, especially small island countries that are susceptible to  
rising sea levels. Advanced transmission and smart grid technology can be utilized to  
improve the disaster prevention capability and climate resilience of energy and power  
infrastructure, reducing economic losses and mortalities caused by climate disasters.  
Reducing air pollutant emissions. Compared with the BAU scenario, the Central and  
South American Energy Interconnection can reduce emissions by 1.8 million tonnes of  
SO2, 4.0 million tonnes of NOx and 500 thousand tonnes of fine particulate matter per  
year by 2035; reduce emissions by 3.1 million tonnes of SO2, 6.5 million tonnes of NOx  
and 700 thousand tonnes of fine particulate matter per year by 2050. Increasing the  
value of land resources. Compared with the BAU scenario, building Central and South  
American Energy Interconnection will increase the value of land resources by 2 billion  
USD per year by 2035 and 3 billion USD per year by 2050.  
6.4 Political Benefits  
Enhancing political mutual trust, openness and cooperation. Energy security  
will shift from individual security to collective security. Mutual trust between countries  
and people will be greatly boosted. Multilateral cooperation mechanisms led by  
regional organizations such as the CELAC (Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos  
y Caribeños) and the ECLAC (Economic Commission for LatinAmerica and Caribbean)  
1
The BAU scenario developed by the Austrian International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is a  
development path for economy, energy, power and emissions in a country continuing existing policies.  
32  
   
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
will be improved, so as to achieve UN 2030 sustainable development goals.  
Accelerating regional integration. Facilitate the diversification of economic and  
export structures, accelerate the development of a competitive and inclusive industrial  
chain in the region, and bolster regional integration of production and trade. In this way,  
Central and South America will have a bigger voice in global affairs. Working together  
to build an energy community in Central and South America. Building Central and  
South American Energy Interconnection will promote the establishment of regional and  
sub-regional coordination mechanisms, enhance close cooperation among governments,  
enterprises and international organizations, so as to ensure effective alignment of  
national strategies, policies and plans across the region. It will also encourage  
stakeholders to carry out all-round international cooperation in investment and  
financing, technology, construction, trading and operation, developing strong  
partnerships.  
33  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
7 Development Outlook of Achieving 1.5 ºC  
Temperature Control Target  
7.1 Situations and Requirements  
According to IPCC’s1 research, achieving the 1.5°C temperature control target is  
of great significance for the global sustainable development and the well-being of all  
countries. Compared to the 2°C temperature rise scenario, the 1.5°C scenario can reduce  
the risks of the global climate system, and ensure safer natural and human systems.  
Extreme weather, the proportion of affected biodiversity and people suffering from  
water shortage will be reduced. Risks caused by climate change on the overall global  
economic development will decline. The world is in an urgent need to implement  
climate actions from all respects to achieve the 1.5°C temperature control target. Central  
and South American countries need to speed up emission reduction as well. On the basis  
of building Central and South American Energy Interconnection, Central and South  
American countries should strive to achieve net zero emissions by the year 2050, and  
achieve the 1.5 °C temperature control target through accelerating the process of clean  
replacement on the energy supply side, enhancing Electricity Replacement on the  
energy consumption side, and promoting the application of carbon sequestration and  
reduction technologies.  
7.2 Implementation Paths  
Accelerates the process of clean replacement on the energy supply side. It  
should formulate more vigorous policies to support the development of clean energy  
industry, establish mechanisms that are more conducive to large-scale, intensive  
development and wide-area complementation, high-proportion utilization of clean  
energy, further accelerate the development of hydro, wind and solar energy in a multi-  
energy complementary and multi-country collaborative way, and improve the  
development and utilization of biomass energy, so as to rapidly increase the proportion  
of clean energy in the energy supply in Central and South America, whilst rapidly  
reducing the proportion of fossil fuel and GHG emissions.  
Enhancing Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side. Policies  
such as providing financial subsidies and tax reductions should be implemented. The  
1
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special report on 1.5°C temperature rise, 2018.  
34  
     
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
research and development of the related technologies should be further accelerated, so  
as to support the development of electrification industry and stimulate the potential of  
Electricity Replacement. Based on these approaches, the economic feasibility of  
Electricity Replacement can be improved, the scale of power consumption can be  
expanded, and the structure of final energy consumption can be modified.  
The application of carbon sequestration and reduction technologies should be  
promoted. Based on greater efforts to promote Clean Replacement on the energy  
supply side and Electricity Replacement on the energy consumption side and to reduce  
GHG emissions, more supportive policies are needed to promote research, development,  
commercialization and large-scale application of carbon sequestration and carbon  
reduction technologies, which will directly reduce GHG in the atmosphere.  
7.3 Scenarios and Schemes  
Central and South America speeds up clean replacement on the energy supply  
side, with fossil fuel demand peaking ahead of schedule and then declining rapidly;  
promotes in-depth electricity replacement and seek enhanced energy efficiency on  
the energy consumption side, securing a significant increase in the proportion of  
electricity in total final energy consumption.  
Primary energy demand in 2035 and 2050 will come to 1.4 and 1.63 billion tce  
respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2% from 2016 to 2050. Coal  
demand will peak at around 2020, the demand for oil and natural gas will peak at around  
2025 and then fall rapidly. The share of clean energy in primary energy rise to 66% and  
88% in 2035 and 2050 respectively.  
Figure 7-1 Primary Energy Demand in Central and South America Achieving 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Target  
Final energy consumption will grow rapidly before 2035 with an average annual  
growth rate of 1.3% and then slow down. Final energy consumption will reach 0.89 and  
35  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
0.94 billion tce in 2035 and 2050 respectively. Final fossil energy consumption will  
sharply decline to 0.36 and 0.12 billion tce in 2035 and 2050 respectively. The in-depth  
electricity replacement will accelerate in final energy using sectors. It is estimated that  
the share of electricity in total final energy consumption will reach 39% and 59% in  
2035 and 2050, respectively. The share of electricity in industry, transport and building  
sectors will reach 41%, 14%, 63% in 2035 and 54%, 46%, 72% in 2050.  
Figure 7-2 Final Energy Consumption in Central and South America Achieving 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Target  
Power demand will reach 2.7 PWh in 2035, with an average annual growth rate  
of 4.9%. Maximum load will reach 450 GW, with an average annual growth rate of  
4.3%. The power demand will reach 4.3 PWh in 2050, with an average annual growth  
rate of 3.2%. The maximum load will reach 710 GW, with an average annual growth  
rate of 3%. The annual power consumption per capita in 2035 and 2050 will increase  
to 4542 kWh and 6891 kWh respectively from 2083 kWh in 2016.  
Figure 7-3 Power Demand Forecast in Central and South America Achieving the 1.5℃  
Temperature Control Target  
The total installed capacity, power generation, and the proportion of clean  
energy installed capacity and power generation will increase significantly. In 2035,  
the total installed capacity in Central and South America will be about 850 GW. The  
36  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
proportion of clean energy installation will increase from 58% in 2016 to 78%. The  
proportion of non-hydro renewable energy installation will largely improve, up to 42%  
from 11% in 2016; the proportion of hydropower installation will reduce to 35% from  
46% in 2016; the proportion of thermal power will significantly decrease to 22% from  
42% in 2016. In 2050, the total installed capacity in Central and South America will be  
approximately 1.49 TW. The proportion of clean energy installation will continuously  
increase to 86%. The proportion of non-hydro renewable energy installation will be 61%  
and it will become the main power source; the proportion of hydropower installation  
will decrease to 24%; the proportion of thermal power installation will decrease to 14%.  
In 2035, the generation of clean energy sources will be about 2.3 PWh, and the share of  
that in the total generation in Central and South America will rise to 84% from 66% in  
2016. In 2050, the generation of clean energy sources will be about 4.0 PWh,  
accounting for 91% of the total generation in Central and South America.  
Figure 7-4 Outlook of Installed Capacity in Central and South America Achieving the  
1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
Power grid interconnection. Central and South America should reinforce  
outbound power transmission channels of large clean energy bases, expanding the scale  
of the development and outbound power transmission of such bases, including wind  
power bases in southern Argentina and solar energy bases in the Atacama Desert, and  
promote the integration of offshore wind power. Meanwhile, Central and South  
America should strengthen transmission and distribution grids, and improve the power  
supply capability and reliability of regional grids, to enable the large-scale integration  
and accommodation of a high proportion of clean energy. Central and South America  
should also strengthen inter-continental, inter-regional and cross-border grid  
interconnection in order to realize large-scale multi-energy mutual support and optimal  
allocation of clean energy. In this way, the Central and South American Energy  
Interconnection will have a substantially stronger capability for optimal allocation of  
37  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
clean energy, meeting the 4.3 PWh power demand and integrating 1.5 TW of generation  
capacity. The inter-continental, inter-regional and cross-border power flow will exceed  
100 GW.  
Figure 7-5 Illustration of Power Flow in Central and South America in 2050 Achieving  
the 1.5℃ Temperature Control Target  
Focusing on helping to achieve the global 1.5 °C goal, Central and South  
America needs to respond to the pressure of emission reduction brought about by  
re-industrialization, accelerate the transition to clean and low-carbon energy,  
addressing climate change with higher cleanliness, electrification and  
interconnection of power grids. Compared with the 2 °C scenario, the 1.5 °C scenario  
reduces fossil fuel by 51% in primary energy demand by 2050; increases clean energy  
exploitation, so as the installed capacity of clean energy will increase by 19% by 2050;  
accelerates electricity replacement, with the share of electricity in final energy  
consumption increasing by about 9 percentage points by 2050; strengthens grid  
interconnection, with a more than 10 GW increase in inter-continental, inter-regional,  
and cross-border power flows; and increases investment, as the cumulative investment  
in clean energy exploitation and grid construction will increase by 15% by 2050.  
38  
Research and Outlook on Central and South American Energy Interconnection  
Figure 7-6 Analysis and Comparison of Energy and Power in Central and South  
America between the 2 °C and 1.5 °C Scenarios in 2050  
39