Predicting the onset and intensity of the weather-roiling El Niño and La Niña events is crucial for global markets, and meteorologists need to get the messaging right or risk sparking confusion and backlash.
Australia’s forecaster, which faced criticism last year after an unusual El Niño, is taking a less-is-more approach, while the World Meteorological Organization and the Philippines are fielding requests for more detailed and frequent information. The contrasting styles underscore the challenge for agencies seeking to balance demands for certainty against the volatility of weather.
An accurate read on the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is essential for governments, energy markets and farmers planning their cropping regimes, especially as global warming exacerbates extreme weather. Warm and cold phases can cause sapping droughts or unleash drenching rain from the Asia-Pacific to the US, and cost the global economy trillions.
“It’s vital information,” said Tristan Meyers, a meteorologist at New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. “It gives you a little bit of an insight into how the seasons will develop.”
South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean centuries ago, which they named El Niño de Navidad, and modern researchers came to realize its importance to global weather in the 1960s. La Niña was named about two decades later and today, climate variations are monitored by an array of buoys across the Pacific.
Australia’s weather bureau stopped issuing its fortnightly updates in December because they had “created an overemphasis on ENSO as a predictor of seasonal conditions” and “the likelihood and severity of weather events,” according to a spokesperson. The agency says its long-term forecasts on rain and temperatures are a better guide.
Source：FINANCIAL POST
